“一带一路”沿线国家能源贸易指数体系构建及合作建议
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摘要
"一带一路"是我国政府提出的重大倡议,以煤炭、石油、天然气为主的能源是世界发展的重要动力,通过资金、技术和管理的援助,优化"一带一路"沿线各国的能源合作条件,具有十分重要的意义。本研究主要采用德尔斐法和综合评价法,构建能源贸易指数体系,对能源贸易现状和潜力进行分析。对"一带一路"沿线国家的能源贸易指数进行了打分排序,并将国家分为"优先合作""建议合作""谨慎合作"三类,对能源贸易给出了合作建议。
The"Belt and Road"( B&R) is a major initiative of the Chinese government. The coal,petroleum and natural gas predominated energy is an important driving force for the world development. Thus through financial,technical and managerial assistances to optimize energy cooperative condition for countries along the B&R are of great significance. The study has mainly through the Delphi and comprehensive evaluation,established energy trade index system,carried out energy trade status quo and potential analyses. Then scoring and ranking energy trade indices of the countries and partitioned them into"preferred partner""proposed partner"and"cautious partner"three categories,finally advised cooperation measures on energy trade.
The"Belt and Road"( B&R) is a major initiative of the Chinese government. The coal,petroleum and natural gas predominated energy is an important driving force for the world development. Thus through financial,technical and managerial assistances to optimize energy cooperative condition for countries along the B&R are of great significance. The study has mainly through the Delphi and comprehensive evaluation,established energy trade index system,carried out energy trade status quo and potential analyses. Then scoring and ranking energy trade indices of the countries and partitioned them into"preferred partner""proposed partner"and"cautious partner"three categories,finally advised cooperation measures on energy trade.
引文
[1]席碧洁.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献[J].消费导刊,2017(20).
[2]Shahbaz M,Khan S,Tahir M I. The dynamic links between energy consumption,economic growth,financial development and trade in China:Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis[J]. Energy Economics,2013,40(2):8-21.
[3]Tang X,Mclellan B C,Zhang B,et al. Trade-off analysis between embodied energy exports and employment creation in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,134:310-319.
[4]张传国,陈蔚娟.中国能源消费与出口贸易关系实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2009(8):26-30.
[5]Liu H,Xi Y,Guo J,et al. Energy embodied in the international trade of China:An energy input–output analysis[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(8):3957-3964.
[6]CHAI,Qi-Min,Hua-Qing. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030:Synergies or trade-offs between economy,energy and climate security[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,5(4):169-180.
[7]陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究,2008(7):11-25.
[8]何贤杰,吴初国,刘增洁,等.石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J].自然资源学报,2006,(2):245-251.
[9]闫然,徐玉宁,李建龙,等.能源评价体系的分层指标体系构建[J].中国信息化,2013,(10):392-393.
[10]江泽民.对中国能源问题的思考[J].中国石油企业,2008,30(4):5-19.
[11]罗晓云. 21世纪初中国的能源安全与中外能源合作[D].暨南大学,2003.
[12]樊瑛,张炜.中国在国际能源合作中的战略定位及策略选择[J].国际经济合作,2008(7):47-52.
(1)俄罗斯、乌克兰等国家情况与合作建议,部分参考《“一带一路”矿业与冶炼加工产业产能合作建议国别指南2016》,地调局资料。
[2]Shahbaz M,Khan S,Tahir M I. The dynamic links between energy consumption,economic growth,financial development and trade in China:Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis[J]. Energy Economics,2013,40(2):8-21.
[3]Tang X,Mclellan B C,Zhang B,et al. Trade-off analysis between embodied energy exports and employment creation in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,134:310-319.
[4]张传国,陈蔚娟.中国能源消费与出口贸易关系实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2009(8):26-30.
[5]Liu H,Xi Y,Guo J,et al. Energy embodied in the international trade of China:An energy input–output analysis[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(8):3957-3964.
[6]CHAI,Qi-Min,Hua-Qing. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030:Synergies or trade-offs between economy,energy and climate security[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,5(4):169-180.
[7]陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究,2008(7):11-25.
[8]何贤杰,吴初国,刘增洁,等.石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J].自然资源学报,2006,(2):245-251.
[9]闫然,徐玉宁,李建龙,等.能源评价体系的分层指标体系构建[J].中国信息化,2013,(10):392-393.
[10]江泽民.对中国能源问题的思考[J].中国石油企业,2008,30(4):5-19.
[11]罗晓云. 21世纪初中国的能源安全与中外能源合作[D].暨南大学,2003.
[12]樊瑛,张炜.中国在国际能源合作中的战略定位及策略选择[J].国际经济合作,2008(7):47-52.
(1)俄罗斯、乌克兰等国家情况与合作建议,部分参考《“一带一路”矿业与冶炼加工产业产能合作建议国别指南2016》,地调局资料。