基于熵权—云模型的流域水资源脆弱性评价与关键脆弱性辨识——以海河流域为例
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摘要
流域水资源系统是一个复杂的系统,各流域水资源脆弱性的产生原因和表现形式具有典型的流域分布特征。根据流域水资源脆弱性的三种重要成因,从水量短缺、水质污染、灾害防御等三个方面构建有利于原因追溯和关键脆弱性辨识的评价指标体系WSPD-VI,共18个评价指标,采用熵权—云模型相结合的模型进行流域水资源脆弱性的综合评价和关键脆弱性辨识,并对海河流域进行了实证分析。结果表明,2000—2015年海河流域的水资源脆弱性状况在逐年好转,特别是2012年实施最严格水资源管理制度以来;通过对16年的关键脆弱性等级均值进行流域关键脆弱性辨识,可看出海河流域的关键脆弱性是由水量短缺引起的,其次是水质污染和灾害防御。
The basin water resources system was a complex system. The causes and manifestations of the vulnerability of water resources in each basin had typical basin distribution characteristics. According to the three important causes of basin water resource vulnerability,this paper set up the evaluation index system WSPD-VI,which was beneficial to the cause trace and key vulnerability identification in three aspects,such as water shortage,water pollution and disaster prevention. The evaluation index system included 18 evaluation indicators. This paper used the entropy weight-cloud model to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources and identify the basin key vulnerability. And then chose the Haihe River Basin for empirical analysis because the water resources situation in Haihe River Basin was the most serious. The results showed that the vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin was improved year by year during the 2000-2015,especially since the implementation of the most stringent water resource management system in 2012. This paper identified the key vulnerability by calculating the level of three key degrees of vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin for 16 years,identified that the key vulnerability of Haihe River Basin was caused by water shortage,followed by water pollution and disaster defense.
The basin water resources system was a complex system. The causes and manifestations of the vulnerability of water resources in each basin had typical basin distribution characteristics. According to the three important causes of basin water resource vulnerability,this paper set up the evaluation index system WSPD-VI,which was beneficial to the cause trace and key vulnerability identification in three aspects,such as water shortage,water pollution and disaster prevention. The evaluation index system included 18 evaluation indicators. This paper used the entropy weight-cloud model to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources and identify the basin key vulnerability. And then chose the Haihe River Basin for empirical analysis because the water resources situation in Haihe River Basin was the most serious. The results showed that the vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin was improved year by year during the 2000-2015,especially since the implementation of the most stringent water resource management system in 2012. This paper identified the key vulnerability by calculating the level of three key degrees of vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin for 16 years,identified that the key vulnerability of Haihe River Basin was caused by water shortage,followed by water pollution and disaster defense.
引文
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[22]马冬梅,陈大春.基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元模型在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,(5)∶1-5.
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[25]陈俊旭,夏军,洪思,等.水资源关键脆弱性辨识及适应性管理研究进展[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9)∶24-26.
[26]刘倩倩,陈岩.基于熵权法的流域水资源脆弱性评价———以淮河流域为例[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(9)∶10-17.
[27]刘倩倩.流域水资源脆弱性评价与预测研究[D].南京:南京林业大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[28]李德毅,邸凯昌,李德仁.用语言云模型挖掘关联规则[J].软件学报,2000,11(2)∶143-158.
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[30]王璐璐,延军平,王鹏涛,等.海河流域不同等级降水时空变化特征及其影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(4)∶690-699.
[31]邱斌,李萍萍,钟晨宇.海河流域农村非点源污染现状及空间特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(3)∶564-570.
[2]Brouwer F,Falkenmark M. Climate-induced Water Availability Changes in Europe[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,1989,13(1)∶75-98.
[3]Mirauda D,Ostoich M. Surface Water Vulnerability Assessment Applying the Integrity Model as a Decision Support System For Quality Improvement[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2011,31(3)∶161-171.
[4]IPCC. Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996∶1-572.
[5]Jingbo Z,Ji Z. Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources to Climate Change in Chinese cities[J]. Ecological Economy,2010,(6)∶106-114.
[6]Farley K A,Tague C. Vulnerability of Water Supply From the Oregon Cascades to Changing Climate:Linking Science to Users and Policy[J]. Global Environmental Change,2011,21(1)∶110-122.
[7]夏军,雒新萍,曹建廷,等.气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,(1)∶8-14.
[8]夏军,石卫,陈俊旭,等.变化环境下水资源脆弱性及其适应性调控研究———以海河流域为例[J].水利水电技术,2015,(6)∶27-33.
[9]李昌彦,王慧敏,佟金萍,等.气候变化下水资源适应性系统脆弱性评价———以鄱阳湖流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,(2)∶172-181.
[10]夏军,邱冰,潘兴瑶,等.气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用[J].地球科学进展. 2012,27(4)∶443-451.
[11]夏军,翁建武,陈俊旭,等.多尺度水资源脆弱性评价研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2012,20(z1)∶1-14.
[12]唐国平,李秀彬,刘燕华.全球气候变化下水资源脆弱性及其评估方法[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(3)∶313-317.
[13]Perveen S,James L A. Scale Invariance of Water Stress and Scarcity Indicators Facilitating Cross-scale Comparisons of Water Resources Vulnerability[J]. Applied Geography,2011,31(1)∶321-328.
[14]Alessa L,Kliskey A,Busey R. Freshwater Vulnerabilities and Resilience on the Seward Peninsula:Integrating Multiple Dimensions of Landscape Change[J]. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions,2008,18(2)∶256-270.
[15]邹君,王亚力,毛德华.南方丘陵区生态水资源库脆弱度评价———以湖南省为例[J].生态学报,2008,(8)∶3543-3552.
[16]潘争伟,金菊良,吴开亚,等.区域水环境系统脆弱性指标体系及综合决策模型研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,(4)∶518-525.
[17]董四方,董增川,陈康宁.基于DPSIR概念模型的水资源系统脆弱性分析[J].水资源保护,2010,26(4)∶1-3,25.
[18]吕彩霞,仇亚琴,贾仰文,等.海河流域水资源脆弱性及其评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(1)∶55-59.
[19]姚文锋,张思聪,唐莉华,等.海河流域平原区地下水脆弱性评价[J].水力发电学报,2009,(1)∶113-118.
[20]翁建武,夏军,陈俊旭.黄河上游水资源脆弱性评价研究[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9)∶15-20.
[21]陈康宁,董增川,崔志清.基于分形理论的区域水资源系统脆弱性评价[J].水资源保护,2008,24(3)∶24-26.
[22]马冬梅,陈大春.基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元模型在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,(5)∶1-5.
[23]冯少辉,李靖,朱振峰,等.云南省滇中地区水资源脆弱性评价[J].水资源保护,2010,(1)∶13-16.
[24]段顺琼,王静,冯少辉,等.云南高原湖泊地区水资源脆弱性评价研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2011,(9)∶55-59.
[25]陈俊旭,夏军,洪思,等.水资源关键脆弱性辨识及适应性管理研究进展[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9)∶24-26.
[26]刘倩倩,陈岩.基于熵权法的流域水资源脆弱性评价———以淮河流域为例[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(9)∶10-17.
[27]刘倩倩.流域水资源脆弱性评价与预测研究[D].南京:南京林业大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[28]李德毅,邸凯昌,李德仁.用语言云模型挖掘关联规则[J].软件学报,2000,11(2)∶143-158.
[29]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(8)∶28-34.
[30]王璐璐,延军平,王鹏涛,等.海河流域不同等级降水时空变化特征及其影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(4)∶690-699.
[31]邱斌,李萍萍,钟晨宇.海河流域农村非点源污染现状及空间特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(3)∶564-570.