基于DEMATEL与ISM集成方法的水上交通系统脆性影响因素研究
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摘要
为完善水上应急系统管理体系,建立水上交通系统脆性影响因素多层递阶结构模型.首先从人、物、环境和管理等方面分析脆性影响因素,然后结合解释结构模型(Interpretive Structure Modeling,ISM)法和决策试验和评价实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)法融合的优势,将复杂的因素关系转化为直观的、良好的层次结构关系.通过水上交通系统脆性影响因素之间的内在运行机制和层次关系,可找出水上交通系统脆性最直接和最根本的影响因素.结果显示,该方法能深入挖掘水上交通系统事故发生的关键因素和这些因素之间的相互影响及层次关系,从而可为寻求水上交通系统事故发生的关键问题和改善水上交通环境提供方案.
To improve the marine emergency management system,a multi-level recursive structural model of brittleness influencing factors in marine traffic system is established. First,the brittleness influencing factors are analyzed from the perspective of people,objects,environment and management. Then,by combining the integration advantage of Interpretive Structure Modeling( ISM) method and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory( DEMATEL) method,the complex relationship among all factors is transformed into an intuitive and good hierarchical relationship. Through the internal operating mechanism and hierarchical relationship among brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system,the most direct and most fundamental brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system can be found. The research result shows that the method can deeply identify key factors resulting in accidents of marine traffic system and their interaction and hierarchical relationship,which can provide reference to seek key factors resulting in accidents of marine traffic system and to improve marine traffic environment.
To improve the marine emergency management system,a multi-level recursive structural model of brittleness influencing factors in marine traffic system is established. First,the brittleness influencing factors are analyzed from the perspective of people,objects,environment and management. Then,by combining the integration advantage of Interpretive Structure Modeling( ISM) method and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory( DEMATEL) method,the complex relationship among all factors is transformed into an intuitive and good hierarchical relationship. Through the internal operating mechanism and hierarchical relationship among brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system,the most direct and most fundamental brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system can be found. The research result shows that the method can deeply identify key factors resulting in accidents of marine traffic system and their interaction and hierarchical relationship,which can provide reference to seek key factors resulting in accidents of marine traffic system and to improve marine traffic environment.
引文
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[2]LIAO Jianxin,WANG Jinzhu,LI Tonghong,et al.A token-bucket based notification traffic control mechanism for IMS presence service[J].Comput Communications,2011,34(10):1243-1257.
[3]JASSBI J,MOHAMADNEJAD F,NASROLLAHZADEH H.A fuzzy DEMATEL framework for modeling cause and effect relationships of strategy map[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2011,38(5):5967-5973.
[4]何剑彤,李振福,李娜,等.我国海上战略通道安全影响因素的ISM分析[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(4):64-69.
[5]MEHREGAN M R,HOSSEINZADEH M,KAZEMI A.An application of soft system methodology[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012,41:426-433.
[6]DOYTCHEV D E,SZWILLUS G.Combining task analysis and fault tree analysis for accident and incident analysis:a case study from Bulgaria[J].Accident Anal&Prevention,2009,41(6):1172-1179.
[7]SHEN V R L,CHUNG Yu-Fang,CHEN Tzer-Shyong.A novel application of grey system theory to information security:Part I[J].Comput Standards&Interfaces,2009,31(2):277-281.
[8]张文青,胡甚平,刘琨,等.基于熵权的海上交通风险成因物元评价模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2010,31(2):18-22.
[9]张欣欣,轩少永,席永涛,等.基于HFACS的海上交通事故原因系统分析[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(4):15-19.
[10]JANSSENA M A,SCHOON M L,KE W,et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
[11]史培军,王静爱,陈婧,等.当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向——全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届开放会议透视[J].地理学报,2006,61(2):115-126.
[12]夏海波,胡甚平.海事中人为因素的调查与分析[J].交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2004,27(1):61-64.
[13]王有权.航海心理学[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2007:96-97.
[14]谢吉刚.我国水上交通事故调查分析[J].中国水运,2009,9(11):32-33.
[15]傅春燕.水上突发事件演变模型研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2011.
[16]史秀伍,祝剑.天津水域水上交通事故统计分析和对策研究[J].中国海事,2010(8):50-52.
[17]曾诚,解明曙,梁文艳,等.解析结构模型在中水工艺优选系统模型中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2006,17(3):22-25.
[18]刘玫.基于解释结构模型法的绿色供应链影响因素分析[J].科技管理研究,2011(12):192-194.
[19]周德群,章玲.集成DEMATEL/ISM的复杂系统层次划分研究[J].管理科学学报,2008,11(2):20-25.