“港口-腹地经济”复合系统协调发展水平评价——基于PLS通径模型的实证分析
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摘要
文章在对港口与腹地经济耦合协调发展机理分析的基础上,构建了港口与腹地经济协同发展模型和"港口-腹地经济"复合系统指标体系,并采用PLS通径模型测度了2000-2014年环北部湾地区"港口-腹地经济"复合系统及其各子系统协调发展水平。研究表明:考察期间内环北部湾地区"港口-腹地经济"复合系统及其子系统协调发展水平呈现出逐步递增的态势,其中港口子系统增长较快,是复合系统协调发展水平增长的重要保证;湛江港口子系统及其复合系统发展水平明显高于广西北部湾其他3地区;4地区腹地经济子系统协调发展水平基本持平。
Based on the coupling mechanism of port and hinterland economy,port and hinterland economy coordinated development model was constructed.Index system of the ports-hinterland economy compound was put forward.The compound system and its subsystems coordination development level of four districts in Beibu Gulf was measured by using PLS path model from 2000 to2014.The results showed port-hinterland economy coordination developing level of composite system and each subsystem presented an increasing trend year by year.Port subsystem developing level of growth was the important guarantee of compound system development,which was faster hinterland economy subsystem.Compound system and subsystem developing level of Zhanjiang was significantly higher than other three districts in Guangxi Beibu Gulf.However,there was nosignificantly difference in hinterland economy subsystem levels of four districts.
Based on the coupling mechanism of port and hinterland economy,port and hinterland economy coordinated development model was constructed.Index system of the ports-hinterland economy compound was put forward.The compound system and its subsystems coordination development level of four districts in Beibu Gulf was measured by using PLS path model from 2000 to2014.The results showed port-hinterland economy coordination developing level of composite system and each subsystem presented an increasing trend year by year.Port subsystem developing level of growth was the important guarantee of compound system development,which was faster hinterland economy subsystem.Compound system and subsystem developing level of Zhanjiang was significantly higher than other three districts in Guangxi Beibu Gulf.However,there was nosignificantly difference in hinterland economy subsystem levels of four districts.
引文
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[2]PATTON D J.General cargo hinterland of New York.Philadelphia.Baltimore and New Orleans[J].Annals of the AAG,1958,48(4):.436-455.
[3]WEIGARD G.Some element in the study of port geography[J].Geographical Review,1958(48):185-200.
[4]MORGAN F W.Ports and harbors[M].London:Hutchison Press,1958:52-60.
[5]TAAFFE E J,MORRILL R L,GOULD P R.Transport expansion in underdeveloped countries[J].Geographical Review,1963(53):502-529.
[6]SLACK B.Containerization,inter-port competition and port selection[J].Maritime Policy&Management,1985,12,(4):293-303.
[7]HOYLE B,CHARLIER J.Inter-port competition in developing countries:an East African cause study[J].Journal of Transport Geography,1995,3(2):87-103.
[8]LEE S W,SONG D W,CESAR D.A tale of Asias world ports:the spatial evolution in global hub port cities[J].Environmental Economic Geography,2008,39(1):372-385.
[9]WAND J J,CHENG M C.From a hub port city to a global supply chain management center:a case study of Hong Kong[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(1):104-115.
[10]陈再齐,曹小曙,阎小培.广州港经济发展及其与城市经济的互动关系研究[J].经济地理,2005,25(3):373-378.
[11]匡海波.基于关联度模型的港口经济与城市经济关系研究[J].中国软科学,2007(8):110-115.
[12]梁双波,曹有挥,吴威,等.全球化背景下的南京港城关联发展效应分析[J].地理研究,2007,26(3):599-608.
[13]郇恒飞,焦华富,汪志.连云港市港口:城市协调关系的演进研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(11):1828-1833.
[14]郎宇,黎鹏.论港口与腹地经济一体化的几个理论问题[J].经济地理,2005,25(6):769-774.
[15]刘波,朱传耿,车前进.港口经济腹地空间演变及其实证研究:以连云港港口为例[J].经济地理,2007,27(6):905-909.
[16]朱传耿,刘波,李志江.港口-腹地关联性测度及驱动要素研究[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):716-725.
[17]董晓菲,王荣成,韩增林.港口-腹地系统空间结构演化分析:以大连港-辽宁经济腹地系统为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(11):1761-1766.
[18]郎宇,黎鹏.论港口与腹地经济一体化的几个理论问题[J].经济地理,2005,25(6):767-770.
[19]白华,韩文秀.复合系统及其协调的一般理论[J].运筹与管理,2009,9(3):1-7.
[20]董晓菲,韩增林,荣宏庆.大连港、营口港与腹地经济协同发展比较分析[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):39-43.
[21]WOLD H.Soft modeling:The basic design and some extensions[C]//K G J reskog H Wold,Systems under Indirect Observation.North-Holland:Amsterdam,1982.
[22]WOLD H.Partial least squares[C]//Kotz S Johnson N L.Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences.New York:John Wiley&Sons,1985.