气候变化对安徽省大气污染扩散能力的影响
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摘要
利用气象部门整编的30年(1981—2010年)气候资料中,安徽省内35个未搬迁的地面气象站观测资料,分析安徽省大气污染扩散能力的变化特征。时间变化方面,安徽省的不稳定日数比重以每年0.31%的速度增加,大气扩散能力经历了"增强-减弱-增强"的起伏式变化,1997—2004年是扩散能力降低的时期。在空间分布上,除沿江中、西部和皖南山区东部的局部地区出现不稳定日比重下降(安庆站的下降速率最快,为每年-0.32%)的变化趋势外,其他地区均呈逐年升高趋势。高斯扩散模型的模拟结果表明,安徽省的大气污染扩散能力总体上有所增强,在35个台站中,有1/2的台站扩散能力出现了降低的变化趋势。此外,在安徽省淮北东部、大别山西北部和皖南山区东北部,大气的垂直扩散能力得到了增强,水平输送能力有所减弱。沿(长)江西部,大气的垂直扩散能力有所减弱,但水平输送能力却得到增强。
In this paper, the change characteristics of atmospheric pollution diffusion in Anhui Province were studied with the 30 years(from 1981—2010) data of 35 meteorological observatories, which had not been relocated from 1981 to 2010. For time variation, the percent of unstable day was increased annually at 0.31%. The atmospheric pollution diffusion was evolved with the character of "enhancement-decrease-enhancement". The ability of diffusion was decreased from 1997 to 2004. For the spatial distribution, the change trend of unstable day proportion was increased year by year, except the regions of West and East area along the Yangtze River, and some area in eastern of mountain area in Southern Anhui(that of Anqing decreased the fastest,with an annual rate of -0.32%). The simulation results with Gauss modes showed that, most of the region's atmospheric pollutant dispersion capacity was enhanced with the same pollution source. In addition, the diffusion ability of half of the 35 observatories was decreased. The vertical diffusion was enhanced and the horizontal transmission was weakened in some regions, such as eastern part of Huaibei Plain, west-northern of Dabie Mountain and east-northern of mountain area in Southern Anhui. Oppositely, in the west part of Yangtze River, the vertical diffusion was weakened and horizontal transmission was enhanced.
In this paper, the change characteristics of atmospheric pollution diffusion in Anhui Province were studied with the 30 years(from 1981—2010) data of 35 meteorological observatories, which had not been relocated from 1981 to 2010. For time variation, the percent of unstable day was increased annually at 0.31%. The atmospheric pollution diffusion was evolved with the character of "enhancement-decrease-enhancement". The ability of diffusion was decreased from 1997 to 2004. For the spatial distribution, the change trend of unstable day proportion was increased year by year, except the regions of West and East area along the Yangtze River, and some area in eastern of mountain area in Southern Anhui(that of Anqing decreased the fastest,with an annual rate of -0.32%). The simulation results with Gauss modes showed that, most of the region's atmospheric pollutant dispersion capacity was enhanced with the same pollution source. In addition, the diffusion ability of half of the 35 observatories was decreased. The vertical diffusion was enhanced and the horizontal transmission was weakened in some regions, such as eastern part of Huaibei Plain, west-northern of Dabie Mountain and east-northern of mountain area in Southern Anhui. Oppositely, in the west part of Yangtze River, the vertical diffusion was weakened and horizontal transmission was enhanced.
引文
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[22]吴蓉,孙怡,杨元建,等.城市化对安徽省极端气温事件的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):527-537.
[23]陶寅,黄勇,杨元建,等.城市化进程对安徽省风速的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):519-526.
[24]石春娥,王喜全,李元妮,等.1980-2013年安徽霾天气变化趋势及可能成因[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):357-370.
[2]王颖,施能,顾骏强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170.
[3]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2006,63(6):943-956.
[4]林凯荣,何艳虎,雷旭东,等.东江流域1959-2009年气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(12):1783-1787.
[5]姚玉璧,杨金虎,岳平,等.近50年三江源地表湿润指数变化特征及其影响因素[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(11):1585-1593.
[6]时忠杰,高吉喜,徐丽宏,等.内蒙古地区近25年植被对气温和降水变化的影响[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(11):1594-1601.
[7]晏利斌,刘晓东.1982-2006年京津冀地区植被时空变化及其与降水和地面气温的联系[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(2):226-232.
[8]VAUTARD R,HAUGLUSTAINE D.Impact of Global Climate Change on Regional Air Quality:Introduction to the Thematic Issue[J].Comptes Rendus Geoscience2007,339:703-708.
[9]BRASSEUR G P,SCHULTZ M,GRANIER C,et al.Impact of Climate Change on the Future Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19:3932-3951.
[10]GIORGI F,MELEUX F.Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality[J].Comptes Rendus Geoscience,2007,339:721-733.
[11]JACOB D J,WINNER D A.Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality[J].Atmos Environ,2009,43:51-56.
[12]HOGREFE C,LYNN B,CIVEROLO K,et al.Simulating Changes in Regional Air Pollution over the Eastern United States due to Changes in Global and Regional Climate and Emissions[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109:D22301.
[13]LEIBENSPERGER E M,MICKLEY L J,JACOB D J.Sensitivity of US Air Quality to Mid-latitude Cyclone Frequency and Implications of 1980-2006 Climate Change[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2008,8:7075-7086.
[14]LEUNG L R,GUSTAFSON J W I.Potential Regional Climate Change and Implications to U.S.Air Quality[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32:L16711.
[15]MELEUX F,SOLMON F,GIORGI F.Increase in Summer European Ozone Amounts due to Climate Change[J].Atmos Environ,2007,41:7577-7587.
[16]符传博,丹利,唐家翔,等.1960-2013年华南地区霾污染的时空变化及其与关键气候因子的关系[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(5):1313-1322.
[17]毛敏娟,杜荣光,胡德云.气候变化对浙江省大气污染的影响[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(2):221-230.
[18]李洪权,尹浩,杨咏钢,等.湖州大气扩散能力变化特征及其原因探讨[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(19):121-125.
[19]张红,黄勇,刘慧娟.安徽省近30年气候变化的空间特征[J],生态环境学报,2012,21(12):1935-1942.
[20]黄勇,张红,冯妍.近38年安徽省夏季降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):157-167.
[21]但尚铭.Pasquill大气稳定度查算图及其制作方法[J].环境科学,1988,9(2):76-78.
[22]吴蓉,孙怡,杨元建,等.城市化对安徽省极端气温事件的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):527-537.
[23]陶寅,黄勇,杨元建,等.城市化进程对安徽省风速的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):519-526.
[24]石春娥,王喜全,李元妮,等.1980-2013年安徽霾天气变化趋势及可能成因[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):357-370.