高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究
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摘要
以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统(RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration),对雷达四维变分分析系统(VDRAS)30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:(1)长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。(2)对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。(3)通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。
The Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration(RMAPS-IN) is used in this study to merge the nowcasting three dimensional high spatial and temporal resolution wind field from Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System(VDRAS) with the wind field observed at automatic stations. The results show that the analysis results can obviously improve the wind field.(1)The long time series objective test results show that the absolute errors of U/V components are 0.05 and 0.06 m/s, respectively; the absolute errors of U/V components increase with the forecast lead time for the 10 m ground wind field.(2)For the cases of strong convection, the root mean square errors of the 10 m ground wind speed and wind direction are respectively reduced by 0.3 m/s and 13°, and the root mean square errors of wind speed and wind direction are respectively reduced by 0.8 m/s and 10° for the 3-D high resolution wind field. The wind speed and wind direction have been greatly improved in plain sites and the improvements are relatively small in mountain sites.(3)A detailed analysis of the rainstorm occurred on 20 July 2017 and the thunderstorm gale occurred on 7 July 2017 is given. The results show that the RMAPS-IN wind field fusion products can provide more detailed and quantitative description of meso-scale systems.
The Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration(RMAPS-IN) is used in this study to merge the nowcasting three dimensional high spatial and temporal resolution wind field from Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System(VDRAS) with the wind field observed at automatic stations. The results show that the analysis results can obviously improve the wind field.(1)The long time series objective test results show that the absolute errors of U/V components are 0.05 and 0.06 m/s, respectively; the absolute errors of U/V components increase with the forecast lead time for the 10 m ground wind field.(2)For the cases of strong convection, the root mean square errors of the 10 m ground wind speed and wind direction are respectively reduced by 0.3 m/s and 13°, and the root mean square errors of wind speed and wind direction are respectively reduced by 0.8 m/s and 10° for the 3-D high resolution wind field. The wind speed and wind direction have been greatly improved in plain sites and the improvements are relatively small in mountain sites.(3)A detailed analysis of the rainstorm occurred on 20 July 2017 and the thunderstorm gale occurred on 7 July 2017 is given. The results show that the RMAPS-IN wind field fusion products can provide more detailed and quantitative description of meso-scale systems.
引文
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孙继松,石增云,王令.2006.地形对夏季冰雹事件时空分布的影响研究.气候与环境研究,11(1):76-84.Sun J S,Shi Z Y,Wang L.2006.A study on topography impacting on distribution of hail events.Climatic Environ Res,2006,11(1):76-84 (in Chinese)
王彦,于莉莉,李艳伟等.2011.边界层辐合线对强对流系统形成和发展的作用.应用气象学报,22(6):724-731.Wang Y,Yu L L,Li Y W,et al.2011.The role of boundary layer convergence line in initiation of severe weather events.J Appl Meteor Sci,22(6):724-731 (in Chinese)
张立祥,李泽椿.2009.一次东北冷涡MCS边界层特征数值模拟分析.气象学报,67(1):75-82.Zhang L X,Li Z C.2009.The numerical simulative analysis on characteristic of boundary Layer in MCS on 5 July 2004.Acta Meteor Sinica,67(1):75-82 (in Chinese)
张涛,苗春生,王新.2014.LAPS与STMAS地面气温融合效果对比试验.高原气象,33(3):743-752.Zhang T,Miao C S,Wang X.2014.Comparison tests of the integration effect of surface temperature by LAPS and STMAS.Plateau Meteor,33(3):743-752 (in Chinese)
Haiden T,Kann A,Wittmann C,et al.2011.The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system and its validation over the Eastern Alpine region.Wea Forecasting,26(2):166-183,doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222451.1
Kirkpatrick C,McCaul E W Jr,Cohen C.2011.Sensitivities of simulated convective storms to environmental CAPE.Mon Wea Rev,139(11):3514-3532
Sun J Z,Crook N A.1997.Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint.Part Ⅰ:Model development and simulated data experiments.J Atmos Sci,54(12):1642-1661
Sun J Z,Crook N A.1998.Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint.Part Ⅱ:Retrieval experiments of an observed Florida convective storm.J Atmos Sci,55(5):835-852
Sun J Z.2005.Initialization and numerical forecasting of a supercell storm observed during STEPS.Mon Wea Rev,133(4):793-813
Sun J Z,Zhang Y.2008.Analysis and prediction of a squall line observed during IHOP using multiple WSR-88D observations.Mon Wea Rev,136(7):2364-2388
Sun J Z,Chen M X,Wang Y C.2010.A frequent-updating analysis system based on radar,surface,and mesoscale model data for the Beijing 2008 forecast demonstration project.Wea Forecasting,25(6):1715-1735
Weisman M L,Rotunno R.2000.The use of vertical wind shear versus helicity in interpreting supercell dynamics.J Atmos Sci,57(9):1452-1472
Wilson J W,Roberts R D.2006.Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP:Observational and modeling perspective.Mon Wea Rev,134(1):23-47
Xin L,Reuter G W.1996.Numerical simulation of the effects of mesoscale convergence on convective rain showers.Mon Wea Rev,124(12):2828-2842
Xue M,Martin W J.2006.A high-resolution modeling study of the 24 May 2002 dryline case during IHOP.Part Ⅰ:Numerical simulation and general evolution of the dryline and convection.Mon Wea Rev,134(1):149-171
陈明轩,王迎春,肖现等.2012a.基于雷达资料四维变分同化和三维云模式对一次超级单体风暴发展维持热动力机制的模拟分析.大气科学,36(5):929-944.Chen M X,Wang Y C,Xiao X,et al.2012a.A case simulation analysis on thermodynamical mechanism of supercell storm development using 3-D cloud model and 4-D variational assimilation on radar data.Chinese J Atmos Sci,36(5):929-944 (in Chinese)
陈明轩,王迎春.2012b.低层垂直风切变和冷池相互作用影响华北地区一次飑线过程发展维持的数值模拟.气象学报,70(3):371-386.Chen M X,Wang Y C.2012b.Numerical simulation study of interactional effects of the low-level vertical wind shear with the cold pool on a squall line evolution in North China.Acta Meteor Sinica,70(3):371-386 (in Chinese)
陈明轩,高峰,孙娟珍等.2016.基于VDRAS的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统.应用气象学报,27(3):257-272.Chen M X,Gao F,Sun J Z,et al.2016.An analysis system using rapid-updating 4-D variational radar data assimilation based on VDRAS.J Appl Meteor Sci,27(3):257-272 (in Chinese)
戴建华,陶岚,丁杨等.2012.一次罕见飑前强降雹超级单体风暴特征分析.气象学报,70(4):609-627.Dai J H,Tao L,Ding Y,et al.2012.Case analysis of a large hail-producing severe supercell ahead of a squall line.Acta Meteor Sinica,70(4):609-627 (in Chinese)
邓闯,阮征,魏鸣等.2012.风廓线雷达测风精度评估.应用气象学报,23(5):523-533.Deng C,Ruan Z,Wei M,et al.2012.The evaluation of wind measurement accuracy by wind profile radar.J Appl Meteor Sci,23(5):523-533 (in Chinese)
矫梅燕,毕宝贵.2005.夏季北京地区强地形雨中尺度结构分析.气象,31(6):9-14.Jiao M Y,Bi B G.2005.Mesoscale structure analysis of topography-induced heavy rainfall in Beijing in summer.Meteor Mon,31(6):9-14 (in Chinese)
苗春生,高雅,王坚红.2015.HY-2卫星近海面风场资料融合及在海上天气系统分析中的应用.海洋预报,32(4):12-22.Miao C S,Gao Y,Wang J H.2015.Fusion of HY-2 satellite sea surface wind and the application in weather system analysis.Marine Forecasts,32(4):12-22 (in Chinese)
漆梁波,陈春红,刘强军.2006.弱窄带回波在分析和预报强对流天气中的应用.气象学报,64(1):112-120.Qi L B,Chen C H,Liu Q J.2006.Application of narrow-band echo in severe weather prediction and analysis.Acta Meteor Sinica,64(1):112-120 (in Chinese)
齐亚琳,林明森.2012.数据融合技术在海洋二号卫星数据中的应用.航天器工程,21(3):117-123.Qi Y L,Lin M S.2012.Application of the data fusion technique in HY-2 satellite data.Spacecr Eng,21(3):117-123 (in Chinese)
孙继松.2005.气流的垂直分布对地形雨落区的影响.高原气象,24(1):62-69.Sun J S.2005.The effects of vertical distribution of the lower level flow on precipitation location.Plateau Meteor,24(1):62-69 (in Chinese)
孙继松,石增云,王令.2006.地形对夏季冰雹事件时空分布的影响研究.气候与环境研究,11(1):76-84.Sun J S,Shi Z Y,Wang L.2006.A study on topography impacting on distribution of hail events.Climatic Environ Res,2006,11(1):76-84 (in Chinese)
王彦,于莉莉,李艳伟等.2011.边界层辐合线对强对流系统形成和发展的作用.应用气象学报,22(6):724-731.Wang Y,Yu L L,Li Y W,et al.2011.The role of boundary layer convergence line in initiation of severe weather events.J Appl Meteor Sci,22(6):724-731 (in Chinese)
张立祥,李泽椿.2009.一次东北冷涡MCS边界层特征数值模拟分析.气象学报,67(1):75-82.Zhang L X,Li Z C.2009.The numerical simulative analysis on characteristic of boundary Layer in MCS on 5 July 2004.Acta Meteor Sinica,67(1):75-82 (in Chinese)
张涛,苗春生,王新.2014.LAPS与STMAS地面气温融合效果对比试验.高原气象,33(3):743-752.Zhang T,Miao C S,Wang X.2014.Comparison tests of the integration effect of surface temperature by LAPS and STMAS.Plateau Meteor,33(3):743-752 (in Chinese)
Haiden T,Kann A,Wittmann C,et al.2011.The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system and its validation over the Eastern Alpine region.Wea Forecasting,26(2):166-183,doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222451.1
Kirkpatrick C,McCaul E W Jr,Cohen C.2011.Sensitivities of simulated convective storms to environmental CAPE.Mon Wea Rev,139(11):3514-3532
Sun J Z,Crook N A.1997.Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint.Part Ⅰ:Model development and simulated data experiments.J Atmos Sci,54(12):1642-1661
Sun J Z,Crook N A.1998.Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint.Part Ⅱ:Retrieval experiments of an observed Florida convective storm.J Atmos Sci,55(5):835-852
Sun J Z.2005.Initialization and numerical forecasting of a supercell storm observed during STEPS.Mon Wea Rev,133(4):793-813
Sun J Z,Zhang Y.2008.Analysis and prediction of a squall line observed during IHOP using multiple WSR-88D observations.Mon Wea Rev,136(7):2364-2388
Sun J Z,Chen M X,Wang Y C.2010.A frequent-updating analysis system based on radar,surface,and mesoscale model data for the Beijing 2008 forecast demonstration project.Wea Forecasting,25(6):1715-1735
Weisman M L,Rotunno R.2000.The use of vertical wind shear versus helicity in interpreting supercell dynamics.J Atmos Sci,57(9):1452-1472
Wilson J W,Roberts R D.2006.Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP:Observational and modeling perspective.Mon Wea Rev,134(1):23-47
Xin L,Reuter G W.1996.Numerical simulation of the effects of mesoscale convergence on convective rain showers.Mon Wea Rev,124(12):2828-2842
Xue M,Martin W J.2006.A high-resolution modeling study of the 24 May 2002 dryline case during IHOP.Part Ⅰ:Numerical simulation and general evolution of the dryline and convection.Mon Wea Rev,134(1):149-171