温室气体减排方法下多电源区域的减排分析
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摘要
通过分析电力供需、CO_2排放限额值和能源供应与经济目标值的联动效应,构建CCER和NEM等碳减排机制下系统成本最优化的规划模型,并在不可规避的风险条件下寻求系统最优成本与CO_2排放量的制衡点.结果表明:在碳减排机制下,燃煤电厂、燃油电厂、生物质电厂、风电和水电的扩建容量分别200、200、100、450和300MW,CO_2总排放量为[208.15,275.38]×10~6t,燃煤和燃油电厂排放的CO_2量占总排放量的[82.8%,87.9%].此外,CCER机制和NEM机制能精确挖掘出多电源类型的CO_2排放潜力,在CCER机制下,各规划期内CO_2减排量分别为[5.83,6.12]×10~6t、[8.95,9.78]×10~6t和[11.57,14.22]×10~6t,NEM机制能有效促进源端清洁能源的发展和扩建.碳减排机制有利于实现"高碳化"向"低碳化"发展的目标,便于决策者制定"能源-经济-环境"三位一体化的最佳方案.
In this paper, we analyzed the linkage relationship between the electric supply and demand, CO_2 emission limit value and resource supply and economic target value, so that the cost optimization programming model could be built under the CCER and CDM mechanism. The balance point would be found between the optimal cost of the system and the CO_2 emissions in the inevitable risk condition.The results showed that coal-fired power plant, oil-fired power plant, biomass power plant, wind power and hydropower would increase expansion capacity of 200 MW, 200 MW, 100 MW, 450 MW and 300 MW, the total CO_2 emissions was [208.15,275.38]×10~6t, emissions of CO_2 by coal-fired and oil-fired power plant accounted for total emissions of [82.8%,87.9%]. In addition, CCER and NEM could accurately dig CO_2 reduction potential out in the multi-power areas, for example, under the CCER mechanism, CO_2 emission reduction were [5.83,6.12]×10~6t, [8.95,9.78]×10~6t and [11.57,14.22]×10~6t each period, at the same time, NEM mechanism could effectively promote the clean energy development and expansion. Carbon emission reduction mechanism was conducive to realizing the goal of "high carbon" to "low carbon", so that the decision-makers could formulate a scheme of "energyeconomy-environment"
In this paper, we analyzed the linkage relationship between the electric supply and demand, CO_2 emission limit value and resource supply and economic target value, so that the cost optimization programming model could be built under the CCER and CDM mechanism. The balance point would be found between the optimal cost of the system and the CO_2 emissions in the inevitable risk condition.The results showed that coal-fired power plant, oil-fired power plant, biomass power plant, wind power and hydropower would increase expansion capacity of 200 MW, 200 MW, 100 MW, 450 MW and 300 MW, the total CO_2 emissions was [208.15,275.38]×10~6t, emissions of CO_2 by coal-fired and oil-fired power plant accounted for total emissions of [82.8%,87.9%]. In addition, CCER and NEM could accurately dig CO_2 reduction potential out in the multi-power areas, for example, under the CCER mechanism, CO_2 emission reduction were [5.83,6.12]×10~6t, [8.95,9.78]×10~6t and [11.57,14.22]×10~6t each period, at the same time, NEM mechanism could effectively promote the clean energy development and expansion. Carbon emission reduction mechanism was conducive to realizing the goal of "high carbon" to "low carbon", so that the decision-makers could formulate a scheme of "energyeconomy-environment"
引文
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[12]Chen C,Li Y P,Huang GH,et al.A robust optimization method for planning regional-scale electric powersystems and managing carbon dioxide[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2012,1(40):70-84.
[13]叶斌.基于资源优化配置的我国电力行业碳减排成本研究[D].黑龙江:哈尔滨工业大学,2013:53-66.
[14]张远,赵佳琨.论CCER一级市场对全国自愿减排交易体系的重要性[J].当代石油石化,2014,(10):13-18.
[15]张昕.CCER交易在全国碳市场中的作用和挑战[J].中国经贸导刊,2015,(10):57-59.
[16]Jacques D A,Guan D B,Geng Y,et al.Inter-provincial cleandevelopment mechanism in China:a case study of the solar PV sector[J].Energy Policy,2013,57:454–61.
[17]Zhu Y,Li Y P,Huang G H.Planning carbon emission trading for Beijing’s electricpower systems under dual uncertainties[J].Renew Sustain Energy Rev,2013,23:113–28
[2]莫北.“十三五”规划建议”能源看点探究[J].中国石油企业,2015,11:23-27.
[3]陈阳.《巴黎协定》签署彰显全球“去碳化”共识[N].中国经济导报,2016-4-29(B05).
[4]宣晓伟,张浩.碳排放权配额分配的国际经验及启示[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(12):10-15.
[5]荆克迪.中国碳交易市场的机制设计与国际比较研究[D].天津:南开大学,2014:30-42.
[6]刘航.中国清洁发展机制与碳交易市场框架设计研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2013:19-23.
[7]申杨硕.我国发电侧CO2减排途径分析及其优化模型研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013:23-42.
[8]顾佰和,谭显春,等.中国电力行业CO2减排潜力及其贡献因素[J].生态学报,2015,3(19):6406-6408.
[9]叶敏华,蔡闻佳,王灿.跨区电力传输对大气污染物和CO2的区域排放影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(10):1871-1874.
[10]毛显强,邢有凯,胡涛,等.中国电力行业硫、氮、碳协同减排的环境经济路径分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(4):750-754.
[11]李薇,董艳艳,卢晗,等.“十三五”规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(9):2859-2863.
[12]Chen C,Li Y P,Huang GH,et al.A robust optimization method for planning regional-scale electric powersystems and managing carbon dioxide[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2012,1(40):70-84.
[13]叶斌.基于资源优化配置的我国电力行业碳减排成本研究[D].黑龙江:哈尔滨工业大学,2013:53-66.
[14]张远,赵佳琨.论CCER一级市场对全国自愿减排交易体系的重要性[J].当代石油石化,2014,(10):13-18.
[15]张昕.CCER交易在全国碳市场中的作用和挑战[J].中国经贸导刊,2015,(10):57-59.
[16]Jacques D A,Guan D B,Geng Y,et al.Inter-provincial cleandevelopment mechanism in China:a case study of the solar PV sector[J].Energy Policy,2013,57:454–61.
[17]Zhu Y,Li Y P,Huang G H.Planning carbon emission trading for Beijing’s electricpower systems under dual uncertainties[J].Renew Sustain Energy Rev,2013,23:113–28