历史遗址类旅游地的生命周期研究——以美国14家历史遗址公园为例
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摘要
实证研究中旅游地生命周期理论的运用潜力备受质疑。论文选取美国14家国家历史遗址公园为例,采用旅游研究中较少使用的四参数Logistic模型结合一次函数、二次函数、三次函数、高斯多峰分析法拟合旅游地的生命周期。研究发现:四参数Logistic模型结合一次函数、二次函数、三次函数能较好地拟合旅游地的生命周期;利用四参数Logistic曲线的上弯点、拐点、下弯点能定量的划分出旅游地的起步探索、发展、巩固、停滞阶段,一次函数、二次函数、三次函数能拟合旅游地的衰退或复兴阶段,这回答了学者们对生命周期阶段难以定量划分的质疑。根据旅游地停滞期之后的发展趋势还能归纳出该类旅游地的生命周期类型;高斯多峰分析法将旅游地的生命周期拟合成一个个波动的高斯峰,更大程度上保留了旅游地演进的波动特征;将高斯多峰分析法与四参数Logistic模型结合起来,不仅能定量划分旅游地的生命周期阶段,还能准确地描述在生命周期阶段内的波动情况,甚至分析各生命周期阶段对整个生命周期的影响和作用。
In empirical studies the application of tourism life cycle theory is questioned because of the different modes of study sites and difficulty in dividing life cycle stages. This study selected 14 national historic site parks in the United States as an example. The four-parameter Logistic model, which is rarely used in tourism research,was combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, the cubic function, and the Gaussian multi-peak analysis methods to fit the life cycle of the tourist destinations. The study found that the four-parameter Logistic model combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can better fit the life cycle of these tourist destinations; the four-parameter Logistic curve can be used to quantitatively divide the tourism life cycle by the upper bend point, the inflection point, and the lower bend point into initial exploration,development, consolidation, and stagnation stages, and the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can fit the recession or rejuvenation stage of the tourist destinations, which addresses the concerns of scholars that it is difficult to quantitatively divide the life cycle stages. Based on the development trend after the stagnation period of tourist destinations, the life cycle type of the tourism destinations can be identified. The Gaussian multi-peak analysis method fits the life cycle of the tourism destinations into a volatility Gaussian peak, which retains tourism change to a greater extent. The characteristics of fluctuation in the life cycle of tourist destinations completely answer the questions of scholars about the life cycle model's application in tourism research.
In empirical studies the application of tourism life cycle theory is questioned because of the different modes of study sites and difficulty in dividing life cycle stages. This study selected 14 national historic site parks in the United States as an example. The four-parameter Logistic model, which is rarely used in tourism research,was combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, the cubic function, and the Gaussian multi-peak analysis methods to fit the life cycle of the tourist destinations. The study found that the four-parameter Logistic model combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can better fit the life cycle of these tourist destinations; the four-parameter Logistic curve can be used to quantitatively divide the tourism life cycle by the upper bend point, the inflection point, and the lower bend point into initial exploration,development, consolidation, and stagnation stages, and the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can fit the recession or rejuvenation stage of the tourist destinations, which addresses the concerns of scholars that it is difficult to quantitatively divide the life cycle stages. Based on the development trend after the stagnation period of tourist destinations, the life cycle type of the tourism destinations can be identified. The Gaussian multi-peak analysis method fits the life cycle of the tourism destinations into a volatility Gaussian peak, which retains tourism change to a greater extent. The characteristics of fluctuation in the life cycle of tourist destinations completely answer the questions of scholars about the life cycle model's application in tourism research.
引文
保继刚.1995.喀斯特洞穴旅游开发[J].地理学报,50(4):353-359.[Bao J G.1995.A study on tourist development of karst caves.Acta Geographica Sinica,50(4):353-359.]
保继刚,彭华.1996a.旅游地拓展开发研究:以丹霞山阳元石景区为例[J].地理科学,15(1):63-70.[Bao J G,Peng H.1996.Research on the development and development of tourism destinations:Taking Yangyuan section,Danxia scenic spot as an example.Scientia Geographica Sinica,15(1):63-70.]
保继刚,彭华.1996b.深圳市主题公园的发展、客源市场及旅游者行为研究[J].建筑师,6(2):4-20.[Bao J G,Peng H.1996.Research on the development,tourist market and tourist behavior of Shenzhen theme parks.The Architect,6(2):4-20.]
波拉德J H.1988.人口增长的数学模型[M].姚志坚,译.成都:四川大学出版社.[Pollard J H.1988.Mathematical models for the growth of human populations.Translated by Yao Z J.Chengdu,China:Sichuan University Press.]
冯飞,王府北,谢非,等.2015.小波变换与高斯拟合在光谱重叠峰解析中的应用[J].光子学报,44(6):113-118.[Feng F,Wang F B,Xie F,et al.2015.Implementation of spectral overlap resolution based on wavelet transforms and gaussian fitting.Acta Photonica Sinica,44(6):113-118.]
冯国双,谭德讲,刘韫宁,等.2013.四参数log-logistic模型在生物活性测定研究中的应用[J].药物分析杂志,33(11):1849-1851.[Feng G S,Tan D J,Liu Y N,et al.2013.Application of 4-parameter log-logistic model in bioassay.Chinese Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis,33(11):1849-1851.]
简小珠,张敏强,彭春妹.2010.四参数Logistic模型研究进展及其评析[J].心理学探新,30(3):69-73.[Jian X Z,Zhang M Q,Peng C M.2010.The advances of four-parameter logistic model and its comments.Psychological Exploration,30(3):69-73.]
陆林.1997.山岳型旅游地生命周期研究:安徽黄山、九华山实证分析[J].地理科学,17(1):63-69.[Lu L.1997.Astudy on the life cycle of mountain resort:A case study of Huangshan mountain and Jiuhuashan mountain.Scientia Geographical Sinica,17(1):63-69.]
刘玥,刘红云.2018.四参数Logistic模型和传统模型对被试作答拟合能力的比较研究[J].心理学探新,38(3):228-235.[Liu Y,Liu H Y.2018.A comparison study for the four parameter logistic model and traditional logistic models.Psychological Exploration,38(3):228-235.]
李原鹰,徐德刚,桂卫华,等.2017.基于拉曼光谱高斯分峰拟合的硫化锑含量检测方法[J].光谱学与光谱分析,37(12):3743-3748.[Li Y Y,Xu D G,Gui W H,et al.2017.Anovel method for measuring antimony sulfide content based on Gaussian-peak fitting of raman spectroscopy.Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis,37(12):3743-3748.]
孟祥斌,陶剑,陈莎莉.2016.四参数Logistic模型潜在特质参数的Warm加权极大似然估计[J].心理学报,48(8):1047-1056.[Meng X B,Tao J,Chen S L.2016.Warm's weighted maximum likelihood estimation of latent trait in the four-parameter logistic model.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(8):1047-1056.]
王强,马小红,翁秀妹.2014.采用Origin软件计算DXI 800发光仪的四参数logistic定标数据[J].检验医学,29(6):656-658,663.[Wang Q,Ma X H,Weng X M.2014.The fit of four parameter logistic calibration of DXI 800 chemiluminescence analyzer by Origin software.Laboratory Medicine,29(6):656-658,663.]
吴江,黄震方.2004.旅游地生命周期曲线模拟的初步研究:Logistic曲线模型方法的应用[J].地理与地理信息科学,20(5):91-94.[Wu J,Huang Z F.2004.Study on the application of logistic carve simulating tourism destination lifecycle.Geography and Geo-Information Science,20(5):91-94.]
孙根年,薛刚.2007.25年来秦俑馆旅游生命周期与结构变化研究[J].干旱区地理,30(2):283-288.[Sun G N,Xue G.2007.Tourism lifecycle and structure changes in Qin's Terra-cotta museum for 25 years in Shaanxi.Arid Land Geography,30(2):283-288.]
杨效忠,陆林.2004.旅游地生命周期研究的回顾和展望[J].人文地理,19(5):5-10.[Yang X Z,Lu L.2004.Retrospect and prospect of study on resort life cycle.Human Geography,19(5):5-10.]
查爱苹.2003.旅游地生命周期的深入探讨[J].社会科学家,20(1):31-35.[Zha A P.2003.A further research on the theory of life cycle in tourism district.Social Scientist,20(1):31-35.]
张城铭,张涵.2017.基于Logistic模型对TALC模型各阶段的定量划分:兼论美国十大国家公园的旅游生命周期模式[J].旅游学刊,32(6):86-95.[Zhang C M,Zhang H.2017.A quantitative division for each stage of the TALCmodel based on the logistic model:discussion on the tourism life cycle types of the ten national parks in the United States.Tourism Tribune,32(6):86-95.]
张建忠,孙根年.2012.山西大院型民居旅游地生命周期演变及其系统提升:以乔家大院为例[J].地理研究,31(11):2104-2114.[Zhang J Z,Sun G N.2012.Life cycle and upgrade of Shanxi's mansion as a tourist destination:Taking Qiao's Grand Compound as an example.Geographical Research,31(11):2104-2114.]
朱晓杰,张斌.1999.旅游产品生命周期理论研究:以秦兵马俑为例[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,10(1):35-38.[Zhu X J,Zhang B.1999.Research on the life cycle theory of tourism products:Taking Qin terracotta warriors and horses as an example.Journal of Guilin Institude of Tourism,10(1):35-38.]
Agarwal S.2002.Restructuring seaside tourism the resort life cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,29(1):25-55.
Butler R W.1980.The concept of a tourism area cycle of evolution:Implications for management of resources[J].Canadian Geographer,24(1):5-12.
Choy D J L.1989.Life cycle models for pacific island destinations[J].Journal of Travel Research,13(2):216-232.
Debbage K G.1990.Oligopily and the resort cycle in the Bahamas[J].Annals of Tourism Research,17(3):513-517.
di Benedetto A C,Bojanic D C.1993.Tourism area life cycle extensions[J].Annals of Tourism Research,20(3):557-570.
Foster D M,Murphy P.1991.Resort cycle revisted the retirement connection[J].Annals of Tourism Research,18(4):553-576.
Getz D.1992.Tourism planning and destination life cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,19(4):752-770.
Haywood.1986.Can the tourist-area life cycle be made operational[J].Tourism Management,7(3):154-167.
Hovinen G R.1982.Visitor cycles outlook for tourism in lancaster county[J].Annals of Tourism Research,9(4):565-583.
Hovinen G R.2002.Revisiting the destination life cycle model[J].Annals of Tourism Research,29(1):209-230.
Ioannides D.1992.Tourism development agents:The cypriot resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,19(4):711-73.
Klaus J,Meyer-Arendt.1985.The grand isle,louisiana resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,12(3):449-465.
Lundtorp S,Wanhill S.2001.The resort life cycle theory:Generating processes and estimation[J].Annals of Tourism Research,28(4):947-964.
Mccray P D,Sebaugh J L.2003.Defining the linear portion of a sigmoid-shaped curve:Bend points[J].Pharmaceut Statist,2(3):167-174.
Papatheodorou A.2004.Exploring the evolution of tourism resorts[J].Annals of Tourism Research,31(1):219-237.
Priestley G,Mundet L.1998.The post-stagnation phase of the resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,25(1):85-111.
Strapp J D.1990.The resort cycle and second home[J].Annals of Tourism Research,17(3):513-517.
保继刚,彭华.1996a.旅游地拓展开发研究:以丹霞山阳元石景区为例[J].地理科学,15(1):63-70.[Bao J G,Peng H.1996.Research on the development and development of tourism destinations:Taking Yangyuan section,Danxia scenic spot as an example.Scientia Geographica Sinica,15(1):63-70.]
保继刚,彭华.1996b.深圳市主题公园的发展、客源市场及旅游者行为研究[J].建筑师,6(2):4-20.[Bao J G,Peng H.1996.Research on the development,tourist market and tourist behavior of Shenzhen theme parks.The Architect,6(2):4-20.]
波拉德J H.1988.人口增长的数学模型[M].姚志坚,译.成都:四川大学出版社.[Pollard J H.1988.Mathematical models for the growth of human populations.Translated by Yao Z J.Chengdu,China:Sichuan University Press.]
冯飞,王府北,谢非,等.2015.小波变换与高斯拟合在光谱重叠峰解析中的应用[J].光子学报,44(6):113-118.[Feng F,Wang F B,Xie F,et al.2015.Implementation of spectral overlap resolution based on wavelet transforms and gaussian fitting.Acta Photonica Sinica,44(6):113-118.]
冯国双,谭德讲,刘韫宁,等.2013.四参数log-logistic模型在生物活性测定研究中的应用[J].药物分析杂志,33(11):1849-1851.[Feng G S,Tan D J,Liu Y N,et al.2013.Application of 4-parameter log-logistic model in bioassay.Chinese Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis,33(11):1849-1851.]
简小珠,张敏强,彭春妹.2010.四参数Logistic模型研究进展及其评析[J].心理学探新,30(3):69-73.[Jian X Z,Zhang M Q,Peng C M.2010.The advances of four-parameter logistic model and its comments.Psychological Exploration,30(3):69-73.]
陆林.1997.山岳型旅游地生命周期研究:安徽黄山、九华山实证分析[J].地理科学,17(1):63-69.[Lu L.1997.Astudy on the life cycle of mountain resort:A case study of Huangshan mountain and Jiuhuashan mountain.Scientia Geographical Sinica,17(1):63-69.]
刘玥,刘红云.2018.四参数Logistic模型和传统模型对被试作答拟合能力的比较研究[J].心理学探新,38(3):228-235.[Liu Y,Liu H Y.2018.A comparison study for the four parameter logistic model and traditional logistic models.Psychological Exploration,38(3):228-235.]
李原鹰,徐德刚,桂卫华,等.2017.基于拉曼光谱高斯分峰拟合的硫化锑含量检测方法[J].光谱学与光谱分析,37(12):3743-3748.[Li Y Y,Xu D G,Gui W H,et al.2017.Anovel method for measuring antimony sulfide content based on Gaussian-peak fitting of raman spectroscopy.Spectroscopy and Spectral Analysis,37(12):3743-3748.]
孟祥斌,陶剑,陈莎莉.2016.四参数Logistic模型潜在特质参数的Warm加权极大似然估计[J].心理学报,48(8):1047-1056.[Meng X B,Tao J,Chen S L.2016.Warm's weighted maximum likelihood estimation of latent trait in the four-parameter logistic model.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(8):1047-1056.]
王强,马小红,翁秀妹.2014.采用Origin软件计算DXI 800发光仪的四参数logistic定标数据[J].检验医学,29(6):656-658,663.[Wang Q,Ma X H,Weng X M.2014.The fit of four parameter logistic calibration of DXI 800 chemiluminescence analyzer by Origin software.Laboratory Medicine,29(6):656-658,663.]
吴江,黄震方.2004.旅游地生命周期曲线模拟的初步研究:Logistic曲线模型方法的应用[J].地理与地理信息科学,20(5):91-94.[Wu J,Huang Z F.2004.Study on the application of logistic carve simulating tourism destination lifecycle.Geography and Geo-Information Science,20(5):91-94.]
孙根年,薛刚.2007.25年来秦俑馆旅游生命周期与结构变化研究[J].干旱区地理,30(2):283-288.[Sun G N,Xue G.2007.Tourism lifecycle and structure changes in Qin's Terra-cotta museum for 25 years in Shaanxi.Arid Land Geography,30(2):283-288.]
杨效忠,陆林.2004.旅游地生命周期研究的回顾和展望[J].人文地理,19(5):5-10.[Yang X Z,Lu L.2004.Retrospect and prospect of study on resort life cycle.Human Geography,19(5):5-10.]
查爱苹.2003.旅游地生命周期的深入探讨[J].社会科学家,20(1):31-35.[Zha A P.2003.A further research on the theory of life cycle in tourism district.Social Scientist,20(1):31-35.]
张城铭,张涵.2017.基于Logistic模型对TALC模型各阶段的定量划分:兼论美国十大国家公园的旅游生命周期模式[J].旅游学刊,32(6):86-95.[Zhang C M,Zhang H.2017.A quantitative division for each stage of the TALCmodel based on the logistic model:discussion on the tourism life cycle types of the ten national parks in the United States.Tourism Tribune,32(6):86-95.]
张建忠,孙根年.2012.山西大院型民居旅游地生命周期演变及其系统提升:以乔家大院为例[J].地理研究,31(11):2104-2114.[Zhang J Z,Sun G N.2012.Life cycle and upgrade of Shanxi's mansion as a tourist destination:Taking Qiao's Grand Compound as an example.Geographical Research,31(11):2104-2114.]
朱晓杰,张斌.1999.旅游产品生命周期理论研究:以秦兵马俑为例[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,10(1):35-38.[Zhu X J,Zhang B.1999.Research on the life cycle theory of tourism products:Taking Qin terracotta warriors and horses as an example.Journal of Guilin Institude of Tourism,10(1):35-38.]
Agarwal S.2002.Restructuring seaside tourism the resort life cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,29(1):25-55.
Butler R W.1980.The concept of a tourism area cycle of evolution:Implications for management of resources[J].Canadian Geographer,24(1):5-12.
Choy D J L.1989.Life cycle models for pacific island destinations[J].Journal of Travel Research,13(2):216-232.
Debbage K G.1990.Oligopily and the resort cycle in the Bahamas[J].Annals of Tourism Research,17(3):513-517.
di Benedetto A C,Bojanic D C.1993.Tourism area life cycle extensions[J].Annals of Tourism Research,20(3):557-570.
Foster D M,Murphy P.1991.Resort cycle revisted the retirement connection[J].Annals of Tourism Research,18(4):553-576.
Getz D.1992.Tourism planning and destination life cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,19(4):752-770.
Haywood.1986.Can the tourist-area life cycle be made operational[J].Tourism Management,7(3):154-167.
Hovinen G R.1982.Visitor cycles outlook for tourism in lancaster county[J].Annals of Tourism Research,9(4):565-583.
Hovinen G R.2002.Revisiting the destination life cycle model[J].Annals of Tourism Research,29(1):209-230.
Ioannides D.1992.Tourism development agents:The cypriot resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,19(4):711-73.
Klaus J,Meyer-Arendt.1985.The grand isle,louisiana resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,12(3):449-465.
Lundtorp S,Wanhill S.2001.The resort life cycle theory:Generating processes and estimation[J].Annals of Tourism Research,28(4):947-964.
Mccray P D,Sebaugh J L.2003.Defining the linear portion of a sigmoid-shaped curve:Bend points[J].Pharmaceut Statist,2(3):167-174.
Papatheodorou A.2004.Exploring the evolution of tourism resorts[J].Annals of Tourism Research,31(1):219-237.
Priestley G,Mundet L.1998.The post-stagnation phase of the resort cycle[J].Annals of Tourism Research,25(1):85-111.
Strapp J D.1990.The resort cycle and second home[J].Annals of Tourism Research,17(3):513-517.