塔里木河流域社会经济系统水循环分析
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摘要
水循环包括自然水循环和社会经济系统水循环2个方面。虚拟水概念的提出为社会经济系统水循环的研究提供了新的方法和手段。以社会经济系统水循环的理论为基础,运用投入产出分析方法定量描述了塔里木河流域社会经济系统水循环路径,分析制约塔里木河流域可持续发展过程中水资源管理的关键问题。结果表明:(1)塔里木河流域虚拟水输出的主要部门是农业、石油天然气和食品工业。其中农业用水占用水总量的98%以上,其绝大部分转移到食品工业和纺织工业中,而食品工业又将从农业部门转移来的水部分输出外地。山东省是塔里木河流域最大的虚拟水输出地,水资源输出格局主要体现在东部沿海地区。(2)塔里木河流域虚拟水输入的主要部门是冶金工业。最后,针对塔里木河流域产业间和地区间社会经济系统水循环中产生的问题,提出塔里木河流域农业用水及工业用水的调控途径及策略。
Water cycle includes natural water circulation and social economic system water cycle. The concept of virtual water provides a new method and means for studying social water circulation. This paper is based on the theory of water circulation in social and economic system,using input-output analysis method quantitatively describes the Tarim River basin of social water cycle paths and analysis of water resources management in Tarim River basin sustainable development process of the key issues. The results show that the main sectors of virtual water export in the Tarim River Basin are agriculture,petroleum,natural gas and food industry. Agricultural water accounts for more than 98% of total water consumption,most of which is transferred to the food and textile industries,and the food industry export water from the agricultural sector. Shandong Province is the largest virtual water transport area in the Tarim River Basin. The main sector of virtual water input in the Tarim River Basin is the metallurgical industry. Finally,in view of the problems arising from the inter-industrial and inter-regional social water circulation in the Tarim River basin,the paper puts forward the ways and strategies of regulating agricultural and industrial water use in the Tarim River Basin.
Water cycle includes natural water circulation and social economic system water cycle. The concept of virtual water provides a new method and means for studying social water circulation. This paper is based on the theory of water circulation in social and economic system,using input-output analysis method quantitatively describes the Tarim River basin of social water cycle paths and analysis of water resources management in Tarim River basin sustainable development process of the key issues. The results show that the main sectors of virtual water export in the Tarim River Basin are agriculture,petroleum,natural gas and food industry. Agricultural water accounts for more than 98% of total water consumption,most of which is transferred to the food and textile industries,and the food industry export water from the agricultural sector. Shandong Province is the largest virtual water transport area in the Tarim River Basin. The main sector of virtual water input in the Tarim River Basin is the metallurgical industry. Finally,in view of the problems arising from the inter-industrial and inter-regional social water circulation in the Tarim River basin,the paper puts forward the ways and strategies of regulating agricultural and industrial water use in the Tarim River Basin.
引文
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[15] Ma Chengxin,Wang Weiping,Liu Pin. Study on virtual water trade in shandong province—Based on input-output analysis[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012,(2):149-152.[马承新,王维平,刘品.山东省虚拟水贸易问题研究——基于投入产出分析方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2012,(2):149-152.]
[16] Deng Mingjiang,Shi Quan. Water resources management and control model in inland arid areas[J]. Advances in Earth Sciences,2014,29(9):1 046-1 054.[邓铭江,石泉.内陆干旱区水资源管理调控模式[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1 046-1 054.]
[17] Xiao Ying. New Industrialization Strategy and Sustainable Development of New Industry[D]. Urumqi:Xinjiang University,2004.[肖英.新型工业化战略与新型工业可持续发展[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2004.]
[2] Chen Qingqiu,Xue Jianfeng,Zhou Yongzhang. Environmental sustainability assessment framework for urban water system[J].China Water Resources,2004,(3):6-10.[陈庆秋,薛建枫,周永章.城市水系统环境可持续性评价框架[J].中国水利,2004,(3):6-10.]
[3] Allan J A. Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[C]∥ODA,Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management. London:ODA,1993:13-26.
[4] Hoekstra A Y. Virtual water trade:An introduction[C]∥Hoekstra A Y. Virtual Water Trade Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade. Value of Water Research Report Series(No.12). IHE Delft,2003:13-23.
[5] Velazquez E. Analysing Andalusianvirtual water trade in an inputoutput framework[J]. Regional Studies,2007,41(2):185-196.
[6] Zhao Xu,Yang Zhifeng,Chen Bin. Research on China's virtual water trade and consumption based on input-output analysis technology[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(2):286-294.[赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):286-294.]
[7] Wang Yong,Xiao Honglang,Tong Yufeng,et al. Preliminary study on water circulation of social and economic systems in arid areas[J]. Dry Areas Research,2009,26(4):477-482.[王勇,肖洪浪,佟玉风,等.干旱区社会经济系统水循环研究初探[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(4):478-482.]
[8] Wang Shunde. Analysis on the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources and ecological environment in the tarim river over the past 50 years[C]∥National Symposium on the Exchange of Water Resources and Water Environment Protection and Ecological Restoration Technology. Shenzhen,2012.[王顺德.50年来塔里木河人类活动和气候变化对水资源和生态环境的影响分析[C]∥全国水资源与水环境保护、生态修复技术交流研讨会.深圳,2012.]
[9] Ma Zhong,Zhang Jiliang. Analysis of virtual water input and output in Zhangye City[J]. Statistical Study,2008,25(5):65-70.[马忠,张继良.张掖市虚拟水投入产出分析[J].统计研究,2008,25(5):65-70.]
[10] Isard W. Interregional andregional input-output analysis:A model of a space-economy[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1951,33(4):318-328.
[11] Shi Minjun,Zhang Zhuoying. Input-output Model Between Provinces and Regions in China and Interregional Economic Relations[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2012.[石敏俊,张卓颖.中国省区间投入产出模型与区际经济联系[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.]
[12] Xia Ming,Zhang Hongxia. Analysis of Input and Output[M].Beijing:Renmin University of China Press,2013.[夏明,张红霞.投入产出分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013.]
[13] Luan Fangfang. Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Leapfrog Development of Xinjiang[D]. Beijing:Central University for Nationalities,2013.[栾芳芳.新疆跨越式发展中水资源承载力评价[D].北京:中央民族大学,2013.]
[14] Li Xia. Analysis and Evaluation of the Development of Xinjiang's Foreign Trade[D]. Urumqi:Xinjiang Agricultural University,2007.[李霞.新疆对外贸易发展的分析与评价[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2007.]
[15] Ma Chengxin,Wang Weiping,Liu Pin. Study on virtual water trade in shandong province—Based on input-output analysis[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012,(2):149-152.[马承新,王维平,刘品.山东省虚拟水贸易问题研究——基于投入产出分析方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2012,(2):149-152.]
[16] Deng Mingjiang,Shi Quan. Water resources management and control model in inland arid areas[J]. Advances in Earth Sciences,2014,29(9):1 046-1 054.[邓铭江,石泉.内陆干旱区水资源管理调控模式[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(9):1 046-1 054.]
[17] Xiao Ying. New Industrialization Strategy and Sustainable Development of New Industry[D]. Urumqi:Xinjiang University,2004.[肖英.新型工业化战略与新型工业可持续发展[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2004.]