自由民主的全球衰退及其根源
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摘要
当前全球的自由民主陷入了显著的衰退之中,西方世界自诩的"民主世纪"开始终结。在欧洲,民粹主义浪潮使自由主义民主模式受到质疑。在美国,愈演愈烈的政治极化成为诱发政治衰败的重要根源。与此同时,客观上,由于"非自由民主国家"的崛起改变了全球的权力格局,西方国家的主导地位发生动摇,其作为效仿榜样的合法性和吸引力不断衰减。主观上,随着发达自由民主国家深陷各种困境及其实力的相对萎缩,转而越来越关注自身的问题,民主输出在外交政策中的优先性也随之降低。在这种背景下,西方国家外部推动的政权变革不可避免地发生了"回潮"。这些原因共同导致了当前自由民主的全球性衰退。
Currently,the global liberal democracy has fallen into significant recession,and the self-proclaimed"democratic century"of the Western world is coming to an end. The wave of populism has challenged the liberal democratic model in Europe,while the growing political polarization has become an important source of political decline in the United States. Since the rise of "non-liberal democracies"has changed the global power structure,the dominant status of Western advanced countries has been shaken,and the legitimacy and attractiveness of liberal democracy as a model have been waning. At the same time,deeply mired in various dilemmas,advanced liberal democracies are increasingly focusing on their own internal problems,and their priority of democratic promotion in foreign policy is also reduced. In this context,the democratic reform propelled by liberal democratic great powers inevitably falls apart. These reasons together have led to the current global recession of liberal democracy.
Currently,the global liberal democracy has fallen into significant recession,and the self-proclaimed"democratic century"of the Western world is coming to an end. The wave of populism has challenged the liberal democratic model in Europe,while the growing political polarization has become an important source of political decline in the United States. Since the rise of "non-liberal democracies"has changed the global power structure,the dominant status of Western advanced countries has been shaken,and the legitimacy and attractiveness of liberal democracy as a model have been waning. At the same time,deeply mired in various dilemmas,advanced liberal democracies are increasingly focusing on their own internal problems,and their priority of democratic promotion in foreign policy is also reduced. In this context,the democratic reform propelled by liberal democratic great powers inevitably falls apart. These reasons together have led to the current global recession of liberal democracy.
引文
(1)[美]塞缪尔·亨廷顿:《第三波:20世纪后期的民主化浪潮》,中国人民大学出版社2013年版,第296~297页。
(2)(55)Larry Diamond,“Democracy in Decline:How Washington Can Reverse the Tide?”Foreign Affairs,July/August 2016,pp.151~159.
(3)(9)(11)(13)Marc F. Plattner,“Liberal Democracy’s Fading Allure”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 28,No. 4,2017,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14.
(4)Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way,“The Myth of Democratic Recession”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2015,pp. 45~58.
(5)(40)Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt,How Democracies Die,New York:Crown,2018,p. 6,pp. 8~11.
(6)Valeriya Mechkova,Anna Lührmann,Staffan I. Lindberg,“How Much Democratic Backsliding?”Journal of Democracy,Vol. 28,No. 4,2017,pp. 162~169.
(7)“Democracy for All?”,https://www. v-dem. net/en/news/democracy-all-v-dem-annual-democracy-report-2018.
(8)(48)Michael J. Abramowitz and Sarah Repucci,“Democracy Beleaguered”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp.128~142,pp. 128~142.
(10)倪春纳:《民主因何而衰退》,《江海学刊》2016年第4期。
(12)Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs,“Democracy is Not Dying”,Foreign Affairs,April 11,2017.
(14)(21)(32)(36)Ronald Inglehart,“The Age of Insecurity:Can Democracy Save Itself?”Foreign Affairs,May/June 2018,pp. 20~28.
(15)Larry Diamond,“The Liberal Democratic Order In Crisis”,The American Interest,February 16,2018.
(16)Staffan I. Lindberg,The Nature of Democratic Backsliding in Europe,https://carnegieeurope. eu/2018/07/24/nature-ofdemocratic-backsliding-in-europe-pub-76868.
(17)Michael Meyer-Resende,Is Europe’s Problem Illiberal Majoritarianism or Creeping Authoritarianism? https://carnegieeurope.eu/2018/06/13/is-europe-s-problem-illiberal-majoritarianism-or-creeping-authoritarianism-pub-76587.
(18)(22)(52)Ivan Krastev,“Eastern Europe’s Illiberal Revolution:The Long Road to Democratic Decline”,Foreign Affairs,May/June2018,pp. 49~56.
(19)Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris,“Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties:The Silent Revolution in Reverse”,Perspectives on Politics,Vol. 15,No. 2,2017,pp. 443~454.
(20)Francis Fukuyama,“Huntington’s Legacy”,American Interest,August 27,2018.
(23)Sheri Berman,“Populism is Not Fascism”,Foreign Affairs,November/December 2016.
(24)Cas Mudde,“Europe’s Populist Surge:A Long Time in the Making”,Foreign Affairs,November/December 2016,pp. 25~30.
(25)Yascha Mounk,“The Undemocratic Dilemma”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp. 98~112.
(26)William A. Galston,“The Populist Challenge to Liberal Democracy”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp. 5~19.
(27)Larry Diamond,“How to Reverse the Degradation of Our Politics”,The American Interest,November 10,2017.
(28)Nathaniel Persily,eds.,Solutions to Political Polarization in America,New York:Cambridge University Press,2015,p. 4.
(29)Political Polarization,1994~2017,http://www. peoplepress. org/interactives/political-polarization-1994-2017.
(30)(39)Robert Mickey,Steven Levitsky,and Lucan Ahman Way,“Is America Still Safe for Democracy? Why the United States Is in Danger of Backsliding”,Foreign Affairs,May/June,2017,pp.20~29,pp. 20~29.
(31)Saskia Brechenmacher,Comparing Democratic Distress in the United States and Europe,https://carnegieendowment. org/2018/06/21/comparing-democratic-distress-in-united-statesand-europe-pub-76646.
(33)[美]简·迈耶:《金钱暗流:美国激进右翼崛起背后的隐秘富豪》,新星出版社2018年版,第408页。
(34)Markus Prior,“Media and Political Polarization”,Annual Review of Political Science,Vol. 16,2013,pp. 101~127.
(35)包刚升:《西方政治的新现实》,《政治学研究》2018年第3期。
(37)Francis Fukuyama,“American Political Decay or Renewal? The Meaning of the 2016 Election”,Foreign Affairs,July/August2016,pp. 58~68.
(38)Francis Fukuyama,Identity:The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment,Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2018,p. x.
(41)(47)Seva Gunitsky,“Democracy’s Future:Riding the Hegemonic Wave”,Washington Quarterly,Vol. 41,No. 2,2018,pp. 115~135.
(42)张树华:《论新民主观与全面政治发展》,《政治学研究》2018年第2期。
(43)西方政治话语中被污名化为“威权国家”的主要包括中国、俄罗斯、新加坡、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯等国家,也经常被称为“非自由民主国家”。
(44)(58)Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa,“The End of the Democratic Century”,Foreign Affairs,May/June 2018,pp. 29~36.
(45)Roberto Stefan Foa,“Modernization and Authoritarianism”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 3,2018,pp. 129~140.
(46)(51)Paul D. Miller,“Non-‘Western’Liberalism and the Resilience of the Liberal International Order”,Washington Quarterly,Vol. 41,No. 2,2018,pp. 137~153,pp. 137~153.
(49)Finkel Steven,“Aníbal Pérez-Li1án and Mitchell A. Seligson,The Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building,1990~2003”,World Politics,Vol. 59,No. 3,2007,pp. 404~439.
(50)Eric Patterson,“Obama and Sustainable Democracy Promotion”,International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2012,pp. 26~42.
(53)Powel Brieg Tomos,“A Clash of Norms:Normative Power and EU Democracy Promotion in Tunisia”,Democratization,Vol. 16,No. 1,2009,pp. 193~214.
(54)Amichai Magen,Thomas Risse and Michael A. Mc Faul eds.,Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law,New York:Palgrave Macmillan Press,2009,p. 4.
(56)Roland Rich,Democracy in Crisis:Why,Where,How to Respond,London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,2017,p. 3
(57)[美]弗朗西斯·福山:《政治秩序与政治衰败:从工业革命到民主全球化》,广西师范大学出版社2015年版,第410页。
(2)(55)Larry Diamond,“Democracy in Decline:How Washington Can Reverse the Tide?”Foreign Affairs,July/August 2016,pp.151~159.
(3)(9)(11)(13)Marc F. Plattner,“Liberal Democracy’s Fading Allure”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 28,No. 4,2017,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14,pp. 5~14.
(4)Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way,“The Myth of Democratic Recession”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2015,pp. 45~58.
(5)(40)Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt,How Democracies Die,New York:Crown,2018,p. 6,pp. 8~11.
(6)Valeriya Mechkova,Anna Lührmann,Staffan I. Lindberg,“How Much Democratic Backsliding?”Journal of Democracy,Vol. 28,No. 4,2017,pp. 162~169.
(7)“Democracy for All?”,https://www. v-dem. net/en/news/democracy-all-v-dem-annual-democracy-report-2018.
(8)(48)Michael J. Abramowitz and Sarah Repucci,“Democracy Beleaguered”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp.128~142,pp. 128~142.
(10)倪春纳:《民主因何而衰退》,《江海学刊》2016年第4期。
(12)Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs,“Democracy is Not Dying”,Foreign Affairs,April 11,2017.
(14)(21)(32)(36)Ronald Inglehart,“The Age of Insecurity:Can Democracy Save Itself?”Foreign Affairs,May/June 2018,pp. 20~28.
(15)Larry Diamond,“The Liberal Democratic Order In Crisis”,The American Interest,February 16,2018.
(16)Staffan I. Lindberg,The Nature of Democratic Backsliding in Europe,https://carnegieeurope. eu/2018/07/24/nature-ofdemocratic-backsliding-in-europe-pub-76868.
(17)Michael Meyer-Resende,Is Europe’s Problem Illiberal Majoritarianism or Creeping Authoritarianism? https://carnegieeurope.eu/2018/06/13/is-europe-s-problem-illiberal-majoritarianism-or-creeping-authoritarianism-pub-76587.
(18)(22)(52)Ivan Krastev,“Eastern Europe’s Illiberal Revolution:The Long Road to Democratic Decline”,Foreign Affairs,May/June2018,pp. 49~56.
(19)Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris,“Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties:The Silent Revolution in Reverse”,Perspectives on Politics,Vol. 15,No. 2,2017,pp. 443~454.
(20)Francis Fukuyama,“Huntington’s Legacy”,American Interest,August 27,2018.
(23)Sheri Berman,“Populism is Not Fascism”,Foreign Affairs,November/December 2016.
(24)Cas Mudde,“Europe’s Populist Surge:A Long Time in the Making”,Foreign Affairs,November/December 2016,pp. 25~30.
(25)Yascha Mounk,“The Undemocratic Dilemma”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp. 98~112.
(26)William A. Galston,“The Populist Challenge to Liberal Democracy”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 2,2018,pp. 5~19.
(27)Larry Diamond,“How to Reverse the Degradation of Our Politics”,The American Interest,November 10,2017.
(28)Nathaniel Persily,eds.,Solutions to Political Polarization in America,New York:Cambridge University Press,2015,p. 4.
(29)Political Polarization,1994~2017,http://www. peoplepress. org/interactives/political-polarization-1994-2017.
(30)(39)Robert Mickey,Steven Levitsky,and Lucan Ahman Way,“Is America Still Safe for Democracy? Why the United States Is in Danger of Backsliding”,Foreign Affairs,May/June,2017,pp.20~29,pp. 20~29.
(31)Saskia Brechenmacher,Comparing Democratic Distress in the United States and Europe,https://carnegieendowment. org/2018/06/21/comparing-democratic-distress-in-united-statesand-europe-pub-76646.
(33)[美]简·迈耶:《金钱暗流:美国激进右翼崛起背后的隐秘富豪》,新星出版社2018年版,第408页。
(34)Markus Prior,“Media and Political Polarization”,Annual Review of Political Science,Vol. 16,2013,pp. 101~127.
(35)包刚升:《西方政治的新现实》,《政治学研究》2018年第3期。
(37)Francis Fukuyama,“American Political Decay or Renewal? The Meaning of the 2016 Election”,Foreign Affairs,July/August2016,pp. 58~68.
(38)Francis Fukuyama,Identity:The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment,Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2018,p. x.
(41)(47)Seva Gunitsky,“Democracy’s Future:Riding the Hegemonic Wave”,Washington Quarterly,Vol. 41,No. 2,2018,pp. 115~135.
(42)张树华:《论新民主观与全面政治发展》,《政治学研究》2018年第2期。
(43)西方政治话语中被污名化为“威权国家”的主要包括中国、俄罗斯、新加坡、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯等国家,也经常被称为“非自由民主国家”。
(44)(58)Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa,“The End of the Democratic Century”,Foreign Affairs,May/June 2018,pp. 29~36.
(45)Roberto Stefan Foa,“Modernization and Authoritarianism”,Journal of Democracy,Vol. 29,No. 3,2018,pp. 129~140.
(46)(51)Paul D. Miller,“Non-‘Western’Liberalism and the Resilience of the Liberal International Order”,Washington Quarterly,Vol. 41,No. 2,2018,pp. 137~153,pp. 137~153.
(49)Finkel Steven,“Aníbal Pérez-Li1án and Mitchell A. Seligson,The Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building,1990~2003”,World Politics,Vol. 59,No. 3,2007,pp. 404~439.
(50)Eric Patterson,“Obama and Sustainable Democracy Promotion”,International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2012,pp. 26~42.
(53)Powel Brieg Tomos,“A Clash of Norms:Normative Power and EU Democracy Promotion in Tunisia”,Democratization,Vol. 16,No. 1,2009,pp. 193~214.
(54)Amichai Magen,Thomas Risse and Michael A. Mc Faul eds.,Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law,New York:Palgrave Macmillan Press,2009,p. 4.
(56)Roland Rich,Democracy in Crisis:Why,Where,How to Respond,London:Lynne Rienner Publishers,2017,p. 3
(57)[美]弗朗西斯·福山:《政治秩序与政治衰败:从工业革命到民主全球化》,广西师范大学出版社2015年版,第410页。