天津市夏季臭氧污染特征及来源的模拟分析
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摘要
利用Models-3/CMAQ模式系统和高阶去耦合直接技术(HDDM-3D),对天津市2014年7月的臭氧(O3)污染进行模拟,分析臭氧生成的前体物控制区分布规律,量化天津市及周边地区排放的影响。研究结果表明,天津市臭氧浓度分布从中心城区向外部郊区逐渐增高,东南部临海的滨海新区浓度水平最高。天津全市7月的臭氧生成以VOCs控制为主,中部地区(中心城区、北辰区、东丽区、滨海新区)95%以上天数的臭氧处于VOCs控制区,北部远郊(蓟县、宝坻区、宁河区、武清区)以及中部津南区有2/3以上天数受VOCs控制,南部郊区(西青区、静海区、大港区)的VOCs控制区与共同控制区出现的比例相近。山东省排放是天津市夏季臭氧的主要来源,平均贡献占比约为1/4,对天津东南沿海地区的影响尤为突出;河北省排放平均贡献占比约为1/6,主要影响天津西部区县的臭氧水平;天津排放贡献则主要分布在北部的宝坻和蓟县。
Models-3/CMAQ and High-order Decoupled Direct Method(HDDM) was applied to simulate the ozone pollution during July 2014 in Tianjin, and then to analyze the distribution of ozone-precursor sensitivity regimes and to quantify the impact of source emissions from Tianjin and surrounding areas. The distribution of ozone concentration in Tianjin was gradually increased from the center urban areas to the suburbans areas. The concentrations in Binhai new district(in the southeast of Tianjin), was the highest. Ozone formation was mainly VOCs-sensitive in Tianjin in July, the central area(Central city, Beichen, Dongli and Binhai new district) was VOCs-sensitive over 95% days, near 2/3 of simulation days in northern suburbs(Jixian, Baodi, Ninghe and Wuqing) and Jinnan in central area was VOCs controlled, VOC-sensitive regime had similar probability of occurrence to mixed sensitive regime in southern suburbs(Xiqing, Jinghai and Dagang). Shandong Province contributed 1/4 to ozone in Tianjin, was the main source of Tianjin summer ozone, significantly influencing the level of ozone in the southeast coastal of Tianjin. The average contribute of Hebei Province was 1/6. It main effected of western area of Tianjin. Tianjin local emissions contributed in Baodi and Jixian in the north of Tianjin.
Models-3/CMAQ and High-order Decoupled Direct Method(HDDM) was applied to simulate the ozone pollution during July 2014 in Tianjin, and then to analyze the distribution of ozone-precursor sensitivity regimes and to quantify the impact of source emissions from Tianjin and surrounding areas. The distribution of ozone concentration in Tianjin was gradually increased from the center urban areas to the suburbans areas. The concentrations in Binhai new district(in the southeast of Tianjin), was the highest. Ozone formation was mainly VOCs-sensitive in Tianjin in July, the central area(Central city, Beichen, Dongli and Binhai new district) was VOCs-sensitive over 95% days, near 2/3 of simulation days in northern suburbs(Jixian, Baodi, Ninghe and Wuqing) and Jinnan in central area was VOCs controlled, VOC-sensitive regime had similar probability of occurrence to mixed sensitive regime in southern suburbs(Xiqing, Jinghai and Dagang). Shandong Province contributed 1/4 to ozone in Tianjin, was the main source of Tianjin summer ozone, significantly influencing the level of ozone in the southeast coastal of Tianjin. The average contribute of Hebei Province was 1/6. It main effected of western area of Tianjin. Tianjin local emissions contributed in Baodi and Jixian in the north of Tianjin.
引文
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[34]Han Suqin,Bian Hai,Feng Yinchang,et al.Analysis of the Relationship between O3,NO and NO2 in Tianjin,China.Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2011,11:128–139
[2]Shao M,Tang X Y,Zhang Y H,et al.City clusters in China:air and surface water pollution.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2006,4(7):353–361
[3]Chan C K,Yao X.Air pollution in mega cities in China.Atmospheric Environment,2008,42:1–42
[4]Jerrett M,Burnett R T,Pope C A,et al.Long-term ozone exposure and mortality.New England Journal of Medicine,2009,360:1085–1095
[5]Dunker A M,Yarwood G,Ortmann J P,et al.The decoupled direct method for sensitivity analysis in a three-dimensional air quality model—implementation,accuracy,and efficiency.Environ Sci Technol,2002,36:2965–2976
[6]王雪松,李金龙,张远航,等.北京地区臭氧污染的来源分析.中国科学:化学,2009,39(6):548–559
[7]Cohan D S,Hakami A,Hu Y,et al.Nonlinear response of ozone to emissions:source apportionment and sensitivity analysis.Environmental Science and Technology,2005,39(17):6739–6748
[8]Simon H,Baker K R,Akhtar F.A direct sensitivity approach to predict hourly ozone resulting from compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standard.Environ Sci Technol,2013,47(5):2304-2313
[9]Zhang Wenxian,Trail M A,Hu Yongtao,et al.Use of high-order sensitivity analysis and reduced-form modeling to quantify uncertainty in particulate matter simulations in the presence of uncertain emissions rates:a case study in Houston.Atmospheric Environment,2015,122:103–113
[10]Itahashi S,Uno I,Kim S.Seasonal source contributions of tropospheric ozone over East Asia based on CMAQ-HDDM.Atmospheric Environment,2013,70:204–217
[11]Tang W,Cohan D S,Morris G A,et al.Influence of vertical mixing uncertainties on ozone simulation in CMAQ.Atmospheric Environment,2011,45:2898–2909
[12]Itahashi S,Hayami H,Uno I.Comprehensive study of emission source contributions for tropospheric ozone formation over East Asia.J Geophys Res Atmos,2015,120:331–358
[13]Choi K C,Lee J J,Chang H B,et al.Assessment of transboundary ozone contribution toward South Korea using multiple source-receptor modeling techniques.Atmospheric Environment,2014,92:118–129
[14]Downey N,Emery C,Jung J,et al.Emission reductions and urban ozone responses under more stringent US standards.Atmospheric Environment,2015,101:209–216
[15]王冠岚,薛建军,张建忠.2014年京津冀空气污染时空分布特征及主要成因分析.气象与环境科学,2016,39(1):34–42
[16]Bian Hai,Han Suqin,Tie Xuexi,et al.Evidence of impact of aerosols on surface ozone concentration in Tianjin,China.Atmospheric Environment,2007,41:4672–4681
[17]Ran L,Zhao C S,Xu W Y,et al.Ozone production in summer in the megacities of Tianjin and Shanghai,China:a comparative study.Atmos Chem Phys,2012,12:7531–7542
[18]QU Yu,AN Junling,LI Jian,et al.Effects of NOx and VOCs from five emission sources on summer surface O3 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2014,31:787–800
[19]姚青,孙玫玲,刘爱霞.天津臭氧浓度与气象因素的相关性及其预测方法.生态环境学报,2009,18(6):2206–2210
[20]刘彩霞,冯银厂,孙韧.天津市臭氧污染现状与污染特征分析.中国环境监测,2008,24:52–55
[21]Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J,et al.A description of the advanced research WRF version 3.NCAR Technical Note.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research,2008
[22]Houyoux M R,Vukovich J M.Emissions inventory development and processing for the Seasonal Model for Regional Air Quality.Journal of Geophysical Research,2000,105(D7):9079-9090
[23]Byun D,Schere K L.Review of the governing equations,computational algorithms,and other components of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ)modeling system.Applied Mechanics Reviews,2006,59:51-77
[24]Zhang Q,Streets D G,Carmichael G R,et al.Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9:5131-5153
[25]Pierce T,Geron C,Pouliot G,et al.Integration of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System(BEIS3)into the Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ)Modelling System//Proceedings of the 25th Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference.Norfolk:American Meteorological Society,2002:J85-J86
[26]胡晓宇,李云鹏,李金凤,等.珠江三角洲城市群PM10的相互影响研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(3):519-524
[27]Sillman S,West J J.Reactive nitrogen in Mexico City and its relation to ozone-precursor sensitivity:results from photochemical models.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9:3477-3489
[28]聂腾,李璇,王雪松,等.北京市夏季臭氧前体物控制区的分布特征.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(3):557–564
[29]Wang X,Zhang Y,Hu Y,et al.Process analysis and sensitivity study of regional ozone formation over the Pearl River Delta,China,during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system,Atmos Chem Phys,2006,109:4423–4437
[30]李泽琨.珠江三角洲地区臭氧及其前体物非线性响应特征及控制对策研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2015
[31]Zhang Y,Liu P,Queen A,et al.,A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode—Part II:Gas and aerosol predictions.Atmos Environ,2006,40(26):4839–4855
[32]王自发,李丽娜,吴其重,等.区域输送对北京夏季臭氧浓度影响的数值模拟研究.自然杂志,2008,30(4):194–198
[33]李莉,陈长虹,黄成,等.长江三角洲地区大气O3和PM10的区域污染特征模拟.环境科学,2008,29(1):237–245
[34]Han Suqin,Bian Hai,Feng Yinchang,et al.Analysis of the Relationship between O3,NO and NO2 in Tianjin,China.Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2011,11:128–139