基于Mann-Kendall突变检验与ARIMA模型的臭氧水平预测
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摘要
目的针对未来50年臭氧水平预测,首先以南半球为例,从美国航空航天局(NASA)中获取1985—2015年臭氧含量的数据,按季节分为4类。方法运用Mann-Kendall突变检验的方法,利用MATLAB软件对数据进行检验,应用ARIMA模型对不同季节分别进行预测,考虑到影响大气中臭氧含量的3类因素:相关卤烃浓度、氟氯烃浓度以及氮氧化物浓度,以它们为自变量,臭氧含量为因变量做多元线性回归模型。结果全球30年的春季未出现大的突变,全球30年夏季未出现大的突变,全球30年秋季未出现大的突变,全球30年冬季未出现大的突变;其次,残差序列已经可以认为是一个纯白噪声的序列。结论未来50年臭氧含量不会一直减少,因变量与自变量成反比,即这些物质的排放量逐渐减少,未来50年大气中的臭氧含量缓慢升高至平稳。
Objective To study the forecast of ozone level in the next 50 years,the data of ozone in the 1985-2015 in the southern hemisphere were obtained from NASA.Methods The data were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation test.And the ARIMA model was used to predict the different seasons.The three factors affecting the ozone content in the atmosphere were taken into account,such as the relevant halocarbon concentration,HCFC concentration and nitrogen oxide concentration.By taking them as the independent variables and the ozone content as the dependent variable,multiple linear regression model was conducted.Results First in the four seasons for 30 years of the global,no major mutations were found;second,the residual sequence showed a sequence of purely white noise.Conclusion Ozone content will not be reduced in the next 50 years.The dependent variable is inversely proportional to the independent variable,that is,the emission of theses substances will gradually decrease and the ozone content in the atmosphere will rise slowly in the next 50 years.
Objective To study the forecast of ozone level in the next 50 years,the data of ozone in the 1985-2015 in the southern hemisphere were obtained from NASA.Methods The data were analyzed by Mann-Kendall mutation test.And the ARIMA model was used to predict the different seasons.The three factors affecting the ozone content in the atmosphere were taken into account,such as the relevant halocarbon concentration,HCFC concentration and nitrogen oxide concentration.By taking them as the independent variables and the ozone content as the dependent variable,multiple linear regression model was conducted.Results First in the four seasons for 30 years of the global,no major mutations were found;second,the residual sequence showed a sequence of purely white noise.Conclusion Ozone content will not be reduced in the next 50 years.The dependent variable is inversely proportional to the independent variable,that is,the emission of theses substances will gradually decrease and the ozone content in the atmosphere will rise slowly in the next 50 years.
引文
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[2]王俊萍.大气臭氧层的形成及破坏机理的研究[J].内蒙古石油化工,2006,9(05):7-8.
[3]岳超,王少鹏,朱江玲.2050年中国碳排放量的情景预测:碳排放与社会发展IV[J].北京大学学报,2010,46(04):517-524.
[4]胡璇.对地球“两极”臭氧层严重破坏的研究[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(04):263-265.
[5]王振友.多元线性回归统计预测模型的应用[J].理论新探,2008,5(05):46-47.
[6]刘志威,朱家明,陈媛,等.基于高斯烟羽扩散模型的蚌埠市空气质量的研究[J].赤峰学院学报(自然科学版),2016,32(01):133-137.
[7]汪雅倩,朱家明,钱舒婷,等.合肥市PM2.5影响因素及分布演变规律的定量分析[J].商丘师范学院学报,2016,32(03):1-6+16.
[8]单欣,朱家明,陆玉,等.基于扩散模型的京津冀地区空气污染研究[J].河南工程学院学报(自然科学版),2016,28(01):52-57.
[9]徐路,朱家明,宣琳,等.基于高斯扩散模型PM2.5污染物的成因与演变[J].佳木斯大学学报(自然科学版),2016,34(02):293-296+299.
[10]何玲,朱家明,林根,等.基于高斯扩散模型PM2.5污染的影响因素分析[J].丽水学院学报,2016,38(02):42-48.