节水潜力预测研究综述
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摘要
系统整理并分析了不同领域节水潜力预测方法的分类、原理、适用范围及研究现状,帮助从业人员针对实际问题快速选择模型。分析认为,基于公式模型的节水潜力预测方法收集数据较少,操作简捷,使用范围较广,但精确性不高;基于机器学习的节水潜力预测方法虽然收集的数据种类和数量较多,但构造出的预测模型使用范围广,精度高。针对节水潜力预测的现存问题,总结分析了其发展趋势。未来节水潜力预测的研究应根据不同产业和地域特点,引入深度学习、大数据等新技术,实现精细化节水潜力预测;同时加快完善基于互联网的节水潜力预测应用,实现集成数据收集、处理、预测、发布等功能于一体的节水社会化服务。
The classification,principle,scope of application and research status of prediction methods for water-saving potentials in different fields are summarized so as to help researchers to select models more quickly for practical problems. The results show that the formula model-based methods have been widely used and are easy to operate with less data. However,their precisions are not high. The machine learning-based methods can be widely utilized with high precision although they require more data. In response to the existing problems in the prediction of water-saving potentials,the development trend is summarized and analyzed. In the future,some new technologies such as deep learning,big data will be introduced into the researches on the prediction of water-saving potentials according to different industries and regional characteristics. They will look forward to achieve refined water saving potential prediction. In addition,accelerating the application of Internet-based prediction of watersaving potential will realize the water-saving socialization services which integrate the functions such as data collection,processing,forecasting and publishing.
The classification,principle,scope of application and research status of prediction methods for water-saving potentials in different fields are summarized so as to help researchers to select models more quickly for practical problems. The results show that the formula model-based methods have been widely used and are easy to operate with less data. However,their precisions are not high. The machine learning-based methods can be widely utilized with high precision although they require more data. In response to the existing problems in the prediction of water-saving potentials,the development trend is summarized and analyzed. In the future,some new technologies such as deep learning,big data will be introduced into the researches on the prediction of water-saving potentials according to different industries and regional characteristics. They will look forward to achieve refined water saving potential prediction. In addition,accelerating the application of Internet-based prediction of watersaving potential will realize the water-saving socialization services which integrate the functions such as data collection,processing,forecasting and publishing.
引文
[1]安玉敏.兰州市需水量预测与节水潜力分析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2016.
[2]马素英,李月霞,白振江.节水潜力计算方法分析与比较[J].河北水利,2008(S1):41-43.
[3] LEVIDOW L,LINDGAARD-JORGENSENJ P,NILSSON ASA,et al. Process eco-innovation:assessing meso-level eco-efficiency in industrial water-service systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,110:54-65.
[4]MORTIER R,BLOCK C,VANDECASTEELE C. Water management in the flemish steel industry:the arcelor gent case[J]. Clean Technologies&Environmental Policy,2007,9(4):257-263.
[5]DEMIN A P. Trends in water supply and water conservation in Russia[J]. Water Resources,2000,27(6):670-687.
[6] KOMATSU H,KUME T,OTSUKI K. Water resource management in Japan:forest management or dam reservoirs?[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(4):814-823.
[7]CORNWELL D A,MACPHEE M J. Effects of spent filter backwash recycle on cryptosporidium removal[J]. American Water Works Association,2001,93(4):153-162.
[8]崔玉川.城市与工业节约用水手册[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2002.
[9]郑在洲,耿雷华,常本春,等.工业节水潜力计算方法探讨[J].水利水电技术,2004,35(1):71-74.
[10]曹型荣.北京城市生活用水发展趋势分析[J].北京水务,2004(1):11-13.
[11]孟祥和,张牧,张海生,等.天津工业节水与效益分析[J].资源节约与环保,2007,23(3):27-30.
[12]戴铁军,程会强.我国工业用水量分析与节水措施[J].工业水处理,2008,28(10):9-12.
[13]彭致功,刘钰,许迪,等.基于RS数据和GIS方法估算区域作物节水潜力[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(7):8-12.
[14]雷波,刘钰,许迪.灌区农业灌溉节水潜力估算理论与方法[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(1):10-14.
[15]ELLIOTT J,DERYNG D,MLLER C,et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(9):3239-3244.
[16]IGLESIAS A,GARROTE L. Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2015,155(10):113-124.
[17]CAMPISANO A,MODICA C. Selecting time scale resolution to evaluate water saving and retention Potential of rainwater harvesting tanks[J]. Procedia Engineering,2014,70:218-227.
[18]ADHIKARI R,BRISTOW K L,CASEY P S,et al. Preformed and sprayable polymeric mulch film to improve agricultural water use efficiency[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2016,169:1-13.
[19] ABIDIN MSBZ,SHIBUSAWA S,BUYAMIN S,et al.Intelligent control of capillary irrigation system for watersaving cultivation[C]. IEEE Control Conference,2015:1-5.
[20] MOLDEN D. Accounting for water use and productivity[M]. Colombo:International Irrigation Management Institute(IIMI),1997.
[21]张艳妮.山东省灌溉农业分区及节水潜力预测[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2008.
[22]刘建刚,裴源生,赵勇.不同尺度农业节水潜力的概念界定与耦合关系[J].中国水利,2011(13):1-3.
[23]张霞,程献国,张会敏,等.宁蒙引黄灌区田间节水潜力计算方法分析[J].节水灌溉,2006(2):20-23.
[24]高传昌,类维蒙.灌溉农业节水潜力计算分析:以2001—2003年中牟县杨桥灌区为例[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(18):8619-8620.
[25]马立辉.河北省农业节水潜力计算方法及应用研究[D].保定:河北农业大学,2006.
[26]罗树江.浅谈灌溉工程节水潜力计算方法[J].科技与企业,2014(9):235-236.
[27]崔远来,谭芳,郑传举.不同环节灌溉用水效率及节水潜力分析[J].水科学进展,2010,21(6):788-794.
[28]尹剑,王会肖,刘海军,等.关中地区典型作物农业节水潜力研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):205-209.
[29]AHMAD S,PRASHAR D. Evaluating municipal water conservation policies using a dynamic simulation model[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[30]RYSULOVA M,KAPOSZTASOVA D,PURCZ P. Standard versus SMART options of water saving determination[J]. Procedia Engineering,2016,162:112-119.
[31]KRAUSE K,CHERMAK J M,BROOKSHIRE D S. The demand for water:consumer response to scarcity[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2003,23(2):167-191.
[32]LIU S,BUTLER D,MEMON F A,et al. Impacts of residence time during storage on potential of water saving for grey water recycling system[J]. Water Research,2010,44(1):267-277.
[33]OSAIS Y,ALSADAH J,SIDDIQUI M. A new technique for saving water trapped inside home water networks[C].Intelligent Systems Conference,2017:160-165.
[34]MANTORO T,ISTIONO W. Saving water with water level detection in a smart home bathtub using ultrasonic sensor and fuzzy logic[C]. International Conference on Informatics&Computing,2017:1-5.
[35]高鹏.节约型社会城市节水指标体系及评价方法研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2006.
[36]高传昌,李君,曹永梅.基于属性层次模型的郑州市节水水平研究[J].人民黄河,2010,32(3):43-44.
[37] SU Y,GAO W,GUAN D,et al. Dynamic assessment and forecast of urban water ecological footprint based on exponential smoothing analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,195:354-364.
[38]ABDULLAH S S,MALEK M A,ABDULLAH N S,et al.Extreme learning machines:a new approach for prediction of reference evapotranspiration[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:184-195.
[39] AN A,CHAN C,SHAN N,et al. Applying knowledge discovery to predict water-supply consumption[J]. IEEE Expert,1997,12(4):72-78.
[40] ADAMOWSKI J,CHAN H F,PRASHER S O,et al.Comparison of multiple linear and nonlinear regression,autoregressive integrated moving average,artificial neural network,and wavelet artificial neural network methods for urban water demand forecasting in Montreal,Canada[J].Water Resources Research,2012,48(1):273-279.
[41]CAHILL R,LUND J R,DEOREO B,et al. Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2013,17(10):3957-3967.
[42] DIXON A,BUTLER D,FEWKES A. Water saving potential of domestic water reuse systems using greywater and rainwater in combination[J]. Water Science&Technology,1999,39(5):25-32.
[43]刘炜伟,李玲,林洪孝.基于Elman神经网络的工业节水潜力计算方法及应用[J].水电能源科学,2013(11):39-41.
[44]刘炜伟.基于递归神经网络的节水潜力模型研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2013.
[45]周振民,赵红菲.灰色系统理论在节水潜力估算中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(4):54-56.
[46]雷贵荣,胡震云,韩刚.基于SFA的农业用水技术效率和节水潜力研究[J].水利经济,2010(1):55-58.
[47]陈建耀,刘昌明.城市节水潜力估算与用水管理水平评定[J].地理学报,1998,53(2):141-148.
[48]金笙,刘俊昌,齐红超.北京市不同草种节水潜力预测[J].绿色科技,2010(8):162-165.
[49]姚鑫.基于MATLAB的水资源预测分析[J].无线互联科技,2016(10):74-76.
[2]马素英,李月霞,白振江.节水潜力计算方法分析与比较[J].河北水利,2008(S1):41-43.
[3] LEVIDOW L,LINDGAARD-JORGENSENJ P,NILSSON ASA,et al. Process eco-innovation:assessing meso-level eco-efficiency in industrial water-service systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,110:54-65.
[4]MORTIER R,BLOCK C,VANDECASTEELE C. Water management in the flemish steel industry:the arcelor gent case[J]. Clean Technologies&Environmental Policy,2007,9(4):257-263.
[5]DEMIN A P. Trends in water supply and water conservation in Russia[J]. Water Resources,2000,27(6):670-687.
[6] KOMATSU H,KUME T,OTSUKI K. Water resource management in Japan:forest management or dam reservoirs?[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(4):814-823.
[7]CORNWELL D A,MACPHEE M J. Effects of spent filter backwash recycle on cryptosporidium removal[J]. American Water Works Association,2001,93(4):153-162.
[8]崔玉川.城市与工业节约用水手册[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2002.
[9]郑在洲,耿雷华,常本春,等.工业节水潜力计算方法探讨[J].水利水电技术,2004,35(1):71-74.
[10]曹型荣.北京城市生活用水发展趋势分析[J].北京水务,2004(1):11-13.
[11]孟祥和,张牧,张海生,等.天津工业节水与效益分析[J].资源节约与环保,2007,23(3):27-30.
[12]戴铁军,程会强.我国工业用水量分析与节水措施[J].工业水处理,2008,28(10):9-12.
[13]彭致功,刘钰,许迪,等.基于RS数据和GIS方法估算区域作物节水潜力[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(7):8-12.
[14]雷波,刘钰,许迪.灌区农业灌溉节水潜力估算理论与方法[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(1):10-14.
[15]ELLIOTT J,DERYNG D,MLLER C,et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(9):3239-3244.
[16]IGLESIAS A,GARROTE L. Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2015,155(10):113-124.
[17]CAMPISANO A,MODICA C. Selecting time scale resolution to evaluate water saving and retention Potential of rainwater harvesting tanks[J]. Procedia Engineering,2014,70:218-227.
[18]ADHIKARI R,BRISTOW K L,CASEY P S,et al. Preformed and sprayable polymeric mulch film to improve agricultural water use efficiency[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2016,169:1-13.
[19] ABIDIN MSBZ,SHIBUSAWA S,BUYAMIN S,et al.Intelligent control of capillary irrigation system for watersaving cultivation[C]. IEEE Control Conference,2015:1-5.
[20] MOLDEN D. Accounting for water use and productivity[M]. Colombo:International Irrigation Management Institute(IIMI),1997.
[21]张艳妮.山东省灌溉农业分区及节水潜力预测[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2008.
[22]刘建刚,裴源生,赵勇.不同尺度农业节水潜力的概念界定与耦合关系[J].中国水利,2011(13):1-3.
[23]张霞,程献国,张会敏,等.宁蒙引黄灌区田间节水潜力计算方法分析[J].节水灌溉,2006(2):20-23.
[24]高传昌,类维蒙.灌溉农业节水潜力计算分析:以2001—2003年中牟县杨桥灌区为例[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(18):8619-8620.
[25]马立辉.河北省农业节水潜力计算方法及应用研究[D].保定:河北农业大学,2006.
[26]罗树江.浅谈灌溉工程节水潜力计算方法[J].科技与企业,2014(9):235-236.
[27]崔远来,谭芳,郑传举.不同环节灌溉用水效率及节水潜力分析[J].水科学进展,2010,21(6):788-794.
[28]尹剑,王会肖,刘海军,等.关中地区典型作物农业节水潜力研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(2):205-209.
[29]AHMAD S,PRASHAR D. Evaluating municipal water conservation policies using a dynamic simulation model[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[30]RYSULOVA M,KAPOSZTASOVA D,PURCZ P. Standard versus SMART options of water saving determination[J]. Procedia Engineering,2016,162:112-119.
[31]KRAUSE K,CHERMAK J M,BROOKSHIRE D S. The demand for water:consumer response to scarcity[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2003,23(2):167-191.
[32]LIU S,BUTLER D,MEMON F A,et al. Impacts of residence time during storage on potential of water saving for grey water recycling system[J]. Water Research,2010,44(1):267-277.
[33]OSAIS Y,ALSADAH J,SIDDIQUI M. A new technique for saving water trapped inside home water networks[C].Intelligent Systems Conference,2017:160-165.
[34]MANTORO T,ISTIONO W. Saving water with water level detection in a smart home bathtub using ultrasonic sensor and fuzzy logic[C]. International Conference on Informatics&Computing,2017:1-5.
[35]高鹏.节约型社会城市节水指标体系及评价方法研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2006.
[36]高传昌,李君,曹永梅.基于属性层次模型的郑州市节水水平研究[J].人民黄河,2010,32(3):43-44.
[37] SU Y,GAO W,GUAN D,et al. Dynamic assessment and forecast of urban water ecological footprint based on exponential smoothing analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,195:354-364.
[38]ABDULLAH S S,MALEK M A,ABDULLAH N S,et al.Extreme learning machines:a new approach for prediction of reference evapotranspiration[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:184-195.
[39] AN A,CHAN C,SHAN N,et al. Applying knowledge discovery to predict water-supply consumption[J]. IEEE Expert,1997,12(4):72-78.
[40] ADAMOWSKI J,CHAN H F,PRASHER S O,et al.Comparison of multiple linear and nonlinear regression,autoregressive integrated moving average,artificial neural network,and wavelet artificial neural network methods for urban water demand forecasting in Montreal,Canada[J].Water Resources Research,2012,48(1):273-279.
[41]CAHILL R,LUND J R,DEOREO B,et al. Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2013,17(10):3957-3967.
[42] DIXON A,BUTLER D,FEWKES A. Water saving potential of domestic water reuse systems using greywater and rainwater in combination[J]. Water Science&Technology,1999,39(5):25-32.
[43]刘炜伟,李玲,林洪孝.基于Elman神经网络的工业节水潜力计算方法及应用[J].水电能源科学,2013(11):39-41.
[44]刘炜伟.基于递归神经网络的节水潜力模型研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2013.
[45]周振民,赵红菲.灰色系统理论在节水潜力估算中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(4):54-56.
[46]雷贵荣,胡震云,韩刚.基于SFA的农业用水技术效率和节水潜力研究[J].水利经济,2010(1):55-58.
[47]陈建耀,刘昌明.城市节水潜力估算与用水管理水平评定[J].地理学报,1998,53(2):141-148.
[48]金笙,刘俊昌,齐红超.北京市不同草种节水潜力预测[J].绿色科技,2010(8):162-165.
[49]姚鑫.基于MATLAB的水资源预测分析[J].无线互联科技,2016(10):74-76.