瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择研究
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摘要
为探究瓜达尔港对中国进口原油海上运输的影响,本文基于连通可靠性和运输成本,建立了瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择的不确定双目标规划模型。研究表明运输成本和连通可靠性的不同权衡会带来不同的路径选择,瓜达尔港的运营风险和接卸能力也会影响路径选择,进而提出了提升瓜达尔港在原油运输中作用的措施建议。
In order to investigate the effect of the Gwadar Port on the maritime transportation network of China 's imported crude oil,the uncertain bi-objective programming model for path selection of maritime transportation of China's imported crude oil after the navigation of Gwadar Port is established in this paper,which is based on connectivity reliability and transportation cost. The results show that different trade-offs between transportation cost and connectivity lead to different path selection results,and the risks of operation at Gwadar Port as well as the loading and unloading capacity of Gwadar Port also affect the path selection. And then policy implications are put forward to enhance the role of Gwadar Port in the transportation of crude oil.
In order to investigate the effect of the Gwadar Port on the maritime transportation network of China 's imported crude oil,the uncertain bi-objective programming model for path selection of maritime transportation of China's imported crude oil after the navigation of Gwadar Port is established in this paper,which is based on connectivity reliability and transportation cost. The results show that different trade-offs between transportation cost and connectivity lead to different path selection results,and the risks of operation at Gwadar Port as well as the loading and unloading capacity of Gwadar Port also affect the path selection. And then policy implications are put forward to enhance the role of Gwadar Port in the transportation of crude oil.
引文
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[11]IAKOVOU E T.An interactive multiobjective model for the strategic maritime transportation of petroleum products:Risk analysis and routing[J].Safety Science,2011,39(1):19-29.
[12]LIU Bao Ding.Uncertainty theory[M].2nd ed.Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2007.
[13]LIU Bao Ding.Uncertainty theory:A branch of mathematics for modeling human uncertainty[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2010.
[14]HOSSEINI S A,WADBRO E.Connectivity reliability in uncertain networks with stability analysis[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2016,57(15):337-344.
[15]LIU Bao Ding,CHEN Xiao Wei.Uncertain multiobjective programming and uncertain goal programming[J].Journal of Uncertainty Analysis and Applications,2015,3(1):1-8.
[16]吕靖,王爽.我国海上运输关键节点安全评价研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(1):30-36.
[17]Shipping Intelligence Network.Oil&tanker trades outlook[OL].https://sin.clarksons.net/Publications,2016-12.
[2]曾祥裕.巴基斯坦瓜达尔港对国际安全态势的影响[J].南亚研究季刊,2009(2):31-44.
[3]ANWAR Z.Development of infrastructural linkages between Pakistan and Central Asia[J].South Asian Studies,2011,26(1):103-115.
[4]杨航.试析瓜达尔港开发对“一带一路”战略的影响[J].发展研究,2015(9):20-21,21-22.
[5]肖祥鋆.巴基斯坦瓜达尔港对中国的战略意义[J].青春岁月,2013(12):495.
[6]田润良.瓜达尔港到国内的原油运输:成本效益、安全风险及战略意义比较分析[J].国防交通工程与技术,2014(2):34-37.
[7]张音音.中国经营巴基斯坦瓜达尔港的背景、意义和挑战[D].广东:暨南大学,2014.
[8]HENNIG F,NYGREEN B,CHRISTIANSEN M,et al.Maritime crude oil transportation—a split pickup and split delivery problem[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,218(3):764-774.
[9]HENNIG F,NYGREEN B,FURMAN K C,et al.Alternative approaches to the crude oil tanker routing and scheduling problem with split pick up and split delivery[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,243(1):41-51.
[10]SIDDIQUI A W,VERMA M.A bi-objective approach to routing and scheduling maritime transportation of crude oil[J].Transportation Research Part D,2015,37(8):65-69,70.
[11]IAKOVOU E T.An interactive multiobjective model for the strategic maritime transportation of petroleum products:Risk analysis and routing[J].Safety Science,2011,39(1):19-29.
[12]LIU Bao Ding.Uncertainty theory[M].2nd ed.Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2007.
[13]LIU Bao Ding.Uncertainty theory:A branch of mathematics for modeling human uncertainty[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2010.
[14]HOSSEINI S A,WADBRO E.Connectivity reliability in uncertain networks with stability analysis[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2016,57(15):337-344.
[15]LIU Bao Ding,CHEN Xiao Wei.Uncertain multiobjective programming and uncertain goal programming[J].Journal of Uncertainty Analysis and Applications,2015,3(1):1-8.
[16]吕靖,王爽.我国海上运输关键节点安全评价研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(1):30-36.
[17]Shipping Intelligence Network.Oil&tanker trades outlook[OL].https://sin.clarksons.net/Publications,2016-12.