黄河三角洲地区自然资本动态演变与影响因素研究
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摘要
自然资本是经济社会发展不可替代的必要保障,其可持续利用与核算评估也是实现区域可持续发展的重要内容。三维生态足迹模型是评估区域自然资本占用与核算的重要模型之一,本研究运用三维生态足迹模型,探索生态脆弱型地区"黄河三角洲"自然资本的动态演变特征,并运用主成分分析及多元线性回归模型分析黄河三角洲地区生态足迹演变的影响因素。研究表明:①2000—2015年,黄河三角洲地区人均生态足迹由2. 96 hm~2提升至11. 23 hm~2,年均增长率达到9. 30%。人均生态承载力变化幅度较小,由2000年0. 65 hm~2降低至2015年0. 58 hm~2。人均生态赤字由2000年2. 32 hm~2扩大至2015年10. 65 hm~2,人类经济社会活动对资源环境的胁迫作用越来越强。②人均生态足迹广度大致呈现先下降后相对稳定态势,人均生态足迹深度呈上升趋势,由2000年4. 95上升至2015年19. 37,需要近20个黄河三角洲地区的自然资本流量才能满足区域发展需求,需动用本区域自然资本存量或者引入区域外的资本存量以弥补本区域资本流量的不足。人均生态足迹广度和深度的反向作用趋势明显,剪刀差指数均大于2. 72。各类土地资源开发利用的存量和流量状况存在明显的异质性,水域、耕地和草地的存量流量利用比均呈增加趋势,林地生态足迹一直处于自然原长状态。③人口规模、经济发展、居民消费和土地利用等因素与自然资本的变动呈正相关。其中,产业结构的高级化和合理化是减缓生态足迹增长的重要因素。最后从大力发展生态经济、推进新旧动能转换、强化国土空间管理、提升空间集聚效益、树立生态价值观念、完善生态文明制度、强化生态补偿修复、提高资源承载能力等方面提出了相应的对策和建议。
Natural capital is an irreplaceable guarantee for economic and social development,and its sustainable use and accounting evaluation are important contents for achieving regional sustainable development. The three-dimensional ecological footprint model is one of the important methods for estimating regional natural capital occupation and accounting. The study uses the three-dimensional ecological footprint model to prove the dynamic evolution of natural capital in the Yellow River Delta which is the ecologically vulnerable areas. And using principal component analysis and multiple linear regression model to analyze the influencing factors of ecological footprint evolution in the Yellow River Delta. The results show that: first,from 2000 to 2015,the per capita ecological footprint in the Yellow River Delta increased from 2. 96 hm~2 to 11. 23 hm~2,with the average annual growth rate of 9. 30%. And the change in per capita ecological carrying capacity was small,dropping from 0. 65 hm~2 to 0. 58 hm~2,while the per capita ecological deficit gradually widened from 2. 32 hm~2 to 10. 65 hm~2. The social and economic activities exert more and more stress on resources and environment.Second,per capita ecological footprint breadth showed a trend of decreasing first and then relatively stable. The depth of per capita ecological footprint increased from 4. 95 in 2000 to 19. 37 in 2015,nearly 20 natural capital flows in the Yellow River Delta region are needed to meet the needs of regional development,and natural capital stocks in the region or outside the region are needed to compensate for the shortage of capital stocks in the region. The reverse effect of both of them appears,with the scissors difference index greater than 2. 72. There is obvious heterogeneity in the inventory and flow status of various types of land resources development and utilization. The ratio of stock and flow of water area,cultivated land and grassland is increasing,and the ecological footprint of forest land has been in the original state. Third,factors such as population size,economic development,household consumption and land use are positively correlated with changes of natural capital. Upgrading and rationalizing the industrial structure are important factors in slowing the growth of the ecological footprint. This paper puts forward some countermeasures from the following aspects: vigorously developing ecological economy,promoting the transformation of new and old kinetic energy,strengthening land spatial management,enhancing the efficiency of spatial agglomeration,establishing ecological value,improving the system of ecological civilization,strengthening ecological compensation and restoration,and improving the carrying capacity of resources.
Natural capital is an irreplaceable guarantee for economic and social development,and its sustainable use and accounting evaluation are important contents for achieving regional sustainable development. The three-dimensional ecological footprint model is one of the important methods for estimating regional natural capital occupation and accounting. The study uses the three-dimensional ecological footprint model to prove the dynamic evolution of natural capital in the Yellow River Delta which is the ecologically vulnerable areas. And using principal component analysis and multiple linear regression model to analyze the influencing factors of ecological footprint evolution in the Yellow River Delta. The results show that: first,from 2000 to 2015,the per capita ecological footprint in the Yellow River Delta increased from 2. 96 hm~2 to 11. 23 hm~2,with the average annual growth rate of 9. 30%. And the change in per capita ecological carrying capacity was small,dropping from 0. 65 hm~2 to 0. 58 hm~2,while the per capita ecological deficit gradually widened from 2. 32 hm~2 to 10. 65 hm~2. The social and economic activities exert more and more stress on resources and environment.Second,per capita ecological footprint breadth showed a trend of decreasing first and then relatively stable. The depth of per capita ecological footprint increased from 4. 95 in 2000 to 19. 37 in 2015,nearly 20 natural capital flows in the Yellow River Delta region are needed to meet the needs of regional development,and natural capital stocks in the region or outside the region are needed to compensate for the shortage of capital stocks in the region. The reverse effect of both of them appears,with the scissors difference index greater than 2. 72. There is obvious heterogeneity in the inventory and flow status of various types of land resources development and utilization. The ratio of stock and flow of water area,cultivated land and grassland is increasing,and the ecological footprint of forest land has been in the original state. Third,factors such as population size,economic development,household consumption and land use are positively correlated with changes of natural capital. Upgrading and rationalizing the industrial structure are important factors in slowing the growth of the ecological footprint. This paper puts forward some countermeasures from the following aspects: vigorously developing ecological economy,promoting the transformation of new and old kinetic energy,strengthening land spatial management,enhancing the efficiency of spatial agglomeration,establishing ecological value,improving the system of ecological civilization,strengthening ecological compensation and restoration,and improving the carrying capacity of resources.
引文
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[2]张雪花,李建,张宏伟.基于能值-生态足迹整合模型的城市生态性评价方法研究——以天津市为例[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47(2):344-352.
[3]COLLINS A, COOPER C. Measuring and managing the environmental impact of festivals:the contribution of the ecological footprint[J]. Journal of sustainable tourism,2017,25(1):148-162.
[4]NICCOLUCCI V,GALLI A,REED A,et al. Towards a 3D national ecological footprint geography[J]. Ecological modelling,2011,222(16):2939-2944.
[5]方恺. 1999—2008年G20国家自然资本利用的空间格局变化[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):793-800.
[6]秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞,等.基于三维生态足迹的陕西省自然资本动态研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):837-842.
[7]高子轶,李晶.陕西省自然资本核算的三维生态足迹模型应用研究[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(5):79-83.
[8]陈亮,王如松,李爱仙,等.区域自然资本与自然资本持续度评价——以北京市为案例[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(12):51-55.
[9]方恺,李焕承.基于生态足迹深度和广度的中国自然资本利用省际格局[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):1995-2005.
[10]林文棋,刘丽.基于CITY green模型的自然资本评估方法[J].北京规划建设,2015,33(6):24-27.
[11]MARRO M,PUERO M,RIVERO C,et al. Assessing the economic impact and ecological footprint of construction and demolition waste during the urbanization of rural land[J]. Resources,conservation and recycling,2017,117:160-174.
[12]杜悦悦,彭建,高阳,等.基于三维生态足迹的京津冀城市群自然资本可持续利用分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(10):1186-1196.
[13]黄宝荣,崔书红,李颖明.中国2000—2010年生态足迹变化特征及影响因素[J].环境科学,2016,37(2):420-426.
[14]林娅,孙文营.深化自然资本理念与发展循环经济[J].中国人民大学学报,2008,22(5):80-85.
[15]段晓峰,许学工.城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,28(6):48-52.
[16]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析[J].地理学报,2000,67(5):607-616.
[17]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法——以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例[J].生态学报,2001,21(9):1484-1493.
[18]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,等.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J].地理学报,2001,56(5):598-609.
[19]NICCOLUCCI V,BASTIANONI S,TIEZZI E B P,et al. How deep is the footprint? a 3D representation[J]. Ecological modelling,2009,220(20):2819-2823.
[20]刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.基于改进三维生态足迹模型的张家口市生态可持续性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):169-176.
[21]方恺.基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析——选取11个国家为数据源[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3766-3777.
[22]方恺,高凯,李焕承.基于三维生态足迹模型优化的自然资本利用国际比较[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1657-1667.
[23]张佳琦,段玉山,伍燕南.基于生态足迹的苏州市可持续发展动态研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):177-184.
[24]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1550-1559.
[25]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J].生态经济,2000,20(10):8-10.
[26]方建德,杨扬,叶堤,等.重庆市生态足迹时间序列动态特征及其驱动因子分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(4):1337-1341.
[27]程钰,任建兰,徐成龙.生态文明视角下山东省人地关系演变趋势及其影响因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(11):121-127.
[28]倪琳,张欢,余红梅.城市居民生活消费生态足迹测算及影响因素分析——以长沙市为例[J].西北人口,2014,35(1):69-73.
[29]张星星,曾辉.珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(2):771-778.
[30]来逢波,刘春梅,荣朝和.高速铁路对区域经济发展的影响效应及实证检验[J].东岳论丛,2016,27(6):120-127.
[31]俞海,王勇,张永亮,等.“十三五”中国绿色增长路径识别分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):1-8.
[32]程钰,任建兰,侯纯光,等.沿海生态地区空间均衡内涵界定与状态评估——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(1):83-91.
[2]张雪花,李建,张宏伟.基于能值-生态足迹整合模型的城市生态性评价方法研究——以天津市为例[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47(2):344-352.
[3]COLLINS A, COOPER C. Measuring and managing the environmental impact of festivals:the contribution of the ecological footprint[J]. Journal of sustainable tourism,2017,25(1):148-162.
[4]NICCOLUCCI V,GALLI A,REED A,et al. Towards a 3D national ecological footprint geography[J]. Ecological modelling,2011,222(16):2939-2944.
[5]方恺. 1999—2008年G20国家自然资本利用的空间格局变化[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):793-800.
[6]秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞,等.基于三维生态足迹的陕西省自然资本动态研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):837-842.
[7]高子轶,李晶.陕西省自然资本核算的三维生态足迹模型应用研究[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(5):79-83.
[8]陈亮,王如松,李爱仙,等.区域自然资本与自然资本持续度评价——以北京市为案例[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(12):51-55.
[9]方恺,李焕承.基于生态足迹深度和广度的中国自然资本利用省际格局[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):1995-2005.
[10]林文棋,刘丽.基于CITY green模型的自然资本评估方法[J].北京规划建设,2015,33(6):24-27.
[11]MARRO M,PUERO M,RIVERO C,et al. Assessing the economic impact and ecological footprint of construction and demolition waste during the urbanization of rural land[J]. Resources,conservation and recycling,2017,117:160-174.
[12]杜悦悦,彭建,高阳,等.基于三维生态足迹的京津冀城市群自然资本可持续利用分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(10):1186-1196.
[13]黄宝荣,崔书红,李颖明.中国2000—2010年生态足迹变化特征及影响因素[J].环境科学,2016,37(2):420-426.
[14]林娅,孙文营.深化自然资本理念与发展循环经济[J].中国人民大学学报,2008,22(5):80-85.
[15]段晓峰,许学工.城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,28(6):48-52.
[16]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析[J].地理学报,2000,67(5):607-616.
[17]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法——以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例[J].生态学报,2001,21(9):1484-1493.
[18]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,等.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J].地理学报,2001,56(5):598-609.
[19]NICCOLUCCI V,BASTIANONI S,TIEZZI E B P,et al. How deep is the footprint? a 3D representation[J]. Ecological modelling,2009,220(20):2819-2823.
[20]刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.基于改进三维生态足迹模型的张家口市生态可持续性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):169-176.
[21]方恺.基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析——选取11个国家为数据源[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3766-3777.
[22]方恺,高凯,李焕承.基于三维生态足迹模型优化的自然资本利用国际比较[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1657-1667.
[23]张佳琦,段玉山,伍燕南.基于生态足迹的苏州市可持续发展动态研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):177-184.
[24]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1550-1559.
[25]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J].生态经济,2000,20(10):8-10.
[26]方建德,杨扬,叶堤,等.重庆市生态足迹时间序列动态特征及其驱动因子分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(4):1337-1341.
[27]程钰,任建兰,徐成龙.生态文明视角下山东省人地关系演变趋势及其影响因素[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(11):121-127.
[28]倪琳,张欢,余红梅.城市居民生活消费生态足迹测算及影响因素分析——以长沙市为例[J].西北人口,2014,35(1):69-73.
[29]张星星,曾辉.珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(2):771-778.
[30]来逢波,刘春梅,荣朝和.高速铁路对区域经济发展的影响效应及实证检验[J].东岳论丛,2016,27(6):120-127.
[31]俞海,王勇,张永亮,等.“十三五”中国绿色增长路径识别分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):1-8.
[32]程钰,任建兰,侯纯光,等.沿海生态地区空间均衡内涵界定与状态评估——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(1):83-91.