云南楚雄州山洪气象风险预警临界面雨量研究
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摘要
分析楚雄州2014～2016年有记录的20起山洪灾害的灾情时间和空间分布特征及其与降水的关系。采用区域临界雨量法、泰森多边形法和算术平均法3种统计方法对分析区域临界雨量进行计算分析。结果表明,泰森多边形法因考虑了各雨量站的权重,结果相对较合理,精度较高,故采用泰森多边形法求得的临界面雨量值作为当地山洪气象风险预警阈值;对于没有灾情的山洪沟区域,使用全州总体的雨洪关系得到不同预报预警等级的临界雨量值,即非河谷地区山洪灾害气象预警Ⅳ级～Ⅰ级对应的临界雨量值为9.2 mm、26.1 mm、48.4 mm、66.7 mm,河谷地区山洪灾害气象预警Ⅳ级～Ⅰ级对应临界雨量值分别为7.8 mm、13.5 mm、17 mm、25.5 mm。经2017年灾情检验,修订后的临界面雨量阈值相比于当时业务系统中的原始阈值更有指示意义。
According to recorded 20 mountain torrents over Chuxiong from 2014 to 2016,the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of the 20 disasters,the relationship between precipitation and disasters are analyzed.The critical rainfall is calculated based on different algorithms including the regional critical rainfall method,the Thiessen Polygons and the Arithmetic mean method.The calculation of critical rainfall based on the Thiessen Polygons is more reasonable and more accurate for the reason that the Thiessen Polygons takes the weight of each rain station into consideration.Therefore,the critical rainfall based on the Thiessen Polygons is adopted as the threshold of the weather risk early warning for the mountain torrents over Chuxiong.The values of critical rainfall of different forecast warning levels for the mountain flood ditch without disaster are obtained by the general relationship between precipitation and mountain torrents over Chuxiong.For the valleys of Chuxiong,the values of critical rainfall for different forecast warning levels ranging from IV to I are 7.8 mm,13.5 mm,17 mm and 25.5 mm,respectively.For the non-river valley of Chuxiong,the values are 9.2 mm,26.1 mm,48.4 mm and 66.7 mm,respectively.The inspection of mountain torrents in 2017 reveals that the revised critical rainfall is more instructive than that used in the business system.
According to recorded 20 mountain torrents over Chuxiong from 2014 to 2016,the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of the 20 disasters,the relationship between precipitation and disasters are analyzed.The critical rainfall is calculated based on different algorithms including the regional critical rainfall method,the Thiessen Polygons and the Arithmetic mean method.The calculation of critical rainfall based on the Thiessen Polygons is more reasonable and more accurate for the reason that the Thiessen Polygons takes the weight of each rain station into consideration.Therefore,the critical rainfall based on the Thiessen Polygons is adopted as the threshold of the weather risk early warning for the mountain torrents over Chuxiong.The values of critical rainfall of different forecast warning levels for the mountain flood ditch without disaster are obtained by the general relationship between precipitation and mountain torrents over Chuxiong.For the valleys of Chuxiong,the values of critical rainfall for different forecast warning levels ranging from IV to I are 7.8 mm,13.5 mm,17 mm and 25.5 mm,respectively.For the non-river valley of Chuxiong,the values are 9.2 mm,26.1 mm,48.4 mm and 66.7 mm,respectively.The inspection of mountain torrents in 2017 reveals that the revised critical rainfall is more instructive than that used in the business system.
引文
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[20]胡娟,闵颖,李华宏,等.云南省山洪地质灾害气象预报预警方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):62-69.
[2]杨韬,解福燕,袁金忠.玉溪地质灾害分布特征和成因分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2012,24(5):97-100.
[3]朱涯,黄玮,李蒙,等.云南省山洪地质灾害分布特征及致灾因子分析[J].灾害学,2018,33(3):96-100.
[4]刘志雨,杨大文,胡健伟.基于动态临界雨量的中小河流山洪预警方法及其应用[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(3):317-318.
[5]原文林,付磊,高倩雨.基于极端降水概率分布的山洪灾害预警指标估算模型研究[J].水利水电技术,2019,50(3):17-24
[6]姬兴杰,李凤秀,朱业玉,等.河南省洛河上游暴雨山洪致灾临界面雨量的确定[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(6):43-50.
[7]韦仕丽,张强宜.望谟县频发暴雨洪涝灾害成因分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2011,23(增刊):70-71
[8]NEARYDG,SWIFTLW.Rainfall thresholds for triggering a debris avalanching event in the southern Appalachian Mountains[C]//COSTAJE,WIECZOREGF.Reviews in Engineering Geology Volume Ⅶ.Colorado:The Geological Society of America,1987:81-92.
[9]DAHALRK,HASEGAWA S.Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya[J].Geomorphology,2008,100(3):429-443.
[10]姚令侃.用泥石流发生频率及暴雨频率推求临界雨量的探讨[J].水土保持学报,1988,2(4):72-77.
[11]周伟,唐川,周春花.汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨量特征[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):650-655.
[12]朱静.城市山洪灾害风险评价-以云南省文山县城为例[J].地理研究,2010,29(4):656-663.
[13]金少华,段旭,艾永智,等.“070812”云南元江特大山洪泥石流气象成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):62-67.
[14]陶云,唐川,寸灿琼等.2004-07-05云南德宏州山洪泥石流气象成因分析[J].山地学报,2005,23(1):53-62.
[15]刘媛媛,胡昌伟,张红萍,等.资料匮乏地区山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(8):15-17
[16]全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室.全国山洪灾害防治规划山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算细则(试行)[R].北京:全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室,2003
[17]陈真莲,黄国如,成国栋.小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(6):82-85.
[18]倪化勇,王德伟.基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报研究现状、问题与建议[J].灾害学,2010,25(1):124-128.
[19]叶金印,李致家,常露.基于动态临界雨量的山洪预警方法研究与应用[J].气象,2014,40(1):101-107.
[20]胡娟,闵颖,李华宏,等.云南省山洪地质灾害气象预报预警方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):62-69.