中国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶出口的影响因素及贸易潜力分析
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摘要
通过构建拓展的引力方程模型,运用2001—2017年面板数据,采用泊松伪极大似然估计法(PPML)分析了中国向"一带一路"沿线国家茶叶出口的影响因素及贸易潜力。结果显示,茶叶进口国的经济规模和人口、中国茶叶产量、中国与贸易伙伴的距离、边界、语言等传统因素对中国向"一带一路"沿线国家出口茶叶具有显著影响,其中中国茶叶产量增加的供给推动作用更强。贸易潜力测算结果显示,中国向"一带一路"沿线国家茶叶出口贸易潜力在不同贸易伙伴之间存在差异,其中对东盟、南亚、中亚以及东欧的部分国家茶叶贸易发展充分,对西亚北非和中东欧部分国家茶叶贸易不足。最后从茶叶出口结构调整、茶文化推广与宣传、把握目标市场消费动态等方面提出我国向"一带一路"沿线国家茶叶市场拓展策略。
By constructing an extended gravity equation model, using the 2001-2017 panel data, the influencing factors and trade potential of China tea exports to the countries along "the Belt and Road" were analyzed by the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood(PPML) approach. The results show that traditional variables as the economic scale and population of tea importing countries, China tea production, geographical distance between China and partners, common boarder and common language had significant impacts on China tea exports. The increase of tea production in China had an especially higher effect on tea exports to "the Belt and Road" regions. For China tea export potential, there were differences among the countries and regions along "the Belt and Road".Among them, tea trades in some countries like ASEAN, South Asia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe were fully developed. While tea trades in Western Asia, North Africa and parts of Central and Eastern Europe were not fully developed. Finally, strategies including adjusting China tea export structure, China tea culture promotion,grasping the consumption dynamics in the target market and expanding China tea market in countries along "the Belt and Road" were proposed.
By constructing an extended gravity equation model, using the 2001-2017 panel data, the influencing factors and trade potential of China tea exports to the countries along "the Belt and Road" were analyzed by the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood(PPML) approach. The results show that traditional variables as the economic scale and population of tea importing countries, China tea production, geographical distance between China and partners, common boarder and common language had significant impacts on China tea exports. The increase of tea production in China had an especially higher effect on tea exports to "the Belt and Road" regions. For China tea export potential, there were differences among the countries and regions along "the Belt and Road".Among them, tea trades in some countries like ASEAN, South Asia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe were fully developed. While tea trades in Western Asia, North Africa and parts of Central and Eastern Europe were not fully developed. Finally, strategies including adjusting China tea export structure, China tea culture promotion,grasping the consumption dynamics in the target market and expanding China tea market in countries along "the Belt and Road" were proposed.
引文
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[17]胡求光,霍学喜.中国水产品出口贸易影响因素与发展潜力--基于引力模型的分析[J].农业技术经济,2008(3):100-105.
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[20]Head K,Mayer T,Ries J.The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence[J].Journal of International Economics,2010,81(1):1-14.
[21]陈桃,孙剑,李紫娟.我国茶产业发展中存在的问题、原因与对策[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):424-431.
[2]陈宗懋.新时代中国茶产业的创新与发展[J].农学学报,2018,8(1):80-84.
[3]许咏梅.2006-2016中国茶叶出口国际市场势力的实证研究[J].茶叶,2018,44(2):65-71.
[4]侯利民.“一带一路”框架下我国茶叶贸易转型路径探析[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(6):36-40.
[5]陈富桥,姜仁华,姜爱芹,等.“一带一路”战略背景下我国茶叶市场开拓策略与建议[J].中国茶叶加工,2016(2):5-15.
[6]陶德臣.“一带一路”:中国茶走向世界的主渠道[J].农业考古,2015(5):257-268.
[7]李丽娜,施由明.机遇与挑战:“一带一路”与中国茶叶和茶文化走向世界[J].农业考古,2017(5):98-101.
[8]霍尚一,林坚.中国茶叶出口的影响因素及潜力分析[J].技术经济,2010,29(11):86-90.
[9]Tinbergen J.Shaping the world economy:suggestions for an international economic policy[M].New York:The twentieth century fund,1962.
[10]Poyhonen P.A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963,90(1):93-100.https://www.jstor.org/stable/40436776.
[11]孙林.贸易流量零值情况下引力模型估计方法的优化选择--来自蒙特卡罗模拟的证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011,28(3):152-160.
[12]Silva J S,Tenreyro S.The log of gravity[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,2006,88(4):641-658.
[13]Silva J S,Tenreyro S.Further simulation evidence on the performance of the poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator[J].Economics Letters,2011,112(2):220-222.
[14]齐博,孙东升.中国花卉苗木出口影响因素及贸易潜力分析[J].中国软科学,2014(6):159-166.
[15]邓路,刘德学.国家形象与出口--基于引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(7):63-73.
[16]赵明亮.国际投资风险因素是否影响中国在“一带一路”国家的OFDI--基于扩展投资引力模型的实证检验[J].国际经贸探索,2017,33(2):29-43.
[17]胡求光,霍学喜.中国水产品出口贸易影响因素与发展潜力--基于引力模型的分析[J].农业技术经济,2008(3):100-105.
[18]Wei G,Huang J,Yang J.The impacts of food safety standards on China's tea exports[J].China Economic Review,2012,23(2):253-264.
[19]Disdier A C,Mayer T.Je t'aime,moi non plus:bilateral opinions and international trade[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2007,23(4):1140-1159.
[20]Head K,Mayer T,Ries J.The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence[J].Journal of International Economics,2010,81(1):1-14.
[21]陈桃,孙剑,李紫娟.我国茶产业发展中存在的问题、原因与对策[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):424-431.