树轮宽度记录的塔吉克斯坦北部160 a平均最低气温变化
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摘要
利用塔吉克斯坦北部土耳其斯坦圆柏(Juniperus turkestanica)树轮宽度标准化年表与区域气候要素进行相关分析,发现当年2—3月平均最低气温与树木径向生长存在显著相关关系。据此对该地区1857—2016年2—3月平均最低气温进行重建,重建方程的解释量为39. 5%,调整自由度后的解释量为37. 5%。研究表明:在过去160 a,该地区经历了6个偏暖阶段,1857—1878年、1885—1890年、1907—1915年、1926—1931年、1960—1967年、1994—2016年; 5个偏冷阶段,1879—1884年、1891—1906年、1916—1925年、1932—1959年、1968—1993年。空间分析结果表明,研究区2—3月平均最低气温的重建结果可以代表塔吉克斯坦地区过去160 a的2—3月平均最低气温的变化。
The correlation analysis between the normalized tree-ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica and the regional climatic elements in northern Tajikistan showed that the mean minimum temperature in February and March of the same year was significantly correlated with the radial growth of trees. According to this,the average minimum temperature in the region from February to March,1857-2016 was reconstructed. The reconstruction equation could be used to explain 39. 5% variation of the minimum temperature,and the interpretation amount after adjusting the degree of freedom was 37. 5%. The results showed that,in recent 160 years,the study area experienced 6 high-temperature periods including the periods of 1857-1878,1885-1890,1907-1915,1926-1931,1960-1967 and 1994-2016,and 5 low-temperature periods including the periods of 1879-1884,1891-1906,1916-1925,1932-1959 and 1968-1993. According to the results of spatial correlation analysis,the reconstructed results of the minimum temperature in February and March could be used to represent the actual situation in north Tajikistan.
The correlation analysis between the normalized tree-ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica and the regional climatic elements in northern Tajikistan showed that the mean minimum temperature in February and March of the same year was significantly correlated with the radial growth of trees. According to this,the average minimum temperature in the region from February to March,1857-2016 was reconstructed. The reconstruction equation could be used to explain 39. 5% variation of the minimum temperature,and the interpretation amount after adjusting the degree of freedom was 37. 5%. The results showed that,in recent 160 years,the study area experienced 6 high-temperature periods including the periods of 1857-1878,1885-1890,1907-1915,1926-1931,1960-1967 and 1994-2016,and 5 low-temperature periods including the periods of 1879-1884,1891-1906,1916-1925,1932-1959 and 1968-1993. According to the results of spatial correlation analysis,the reconstructed results of the minimum temperature in February and March could be used to represent the actual situation in north Tajikistan.
引文
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[2]张志华,吴祥定,李骥.利用树木年轮资料重建新疆东天山300多年来干旱日数的变化[J].应用气象学报,1996,7(1):53-60.[Zhang Zhihua,Wu Xiangding,Li Ji.Utilizing tree ring chronologies to reconstruct 300-year drought days in eastern Tianshan Mountains[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1996,7(1):53-60.]
[3]袁玉江,李江风.天山乌鲁木齐河源450 a冬季温度序列的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1):64-70.[Yuan Yujiang,Li Jiangfeng.Reconstruction and analysis of 450 years winter temperature series in the Urumqi River source of Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1999,21(1):64-70.]
[4]Esper J,Shiyatov S G,Mazepa V S,et al.Temperature-sensitive Tianshan tree ring chronologies show multi-centennial growth trends[J].Climate Dynamics,2003,21(7-8):699-706.
[5]Yu S L,Yuan Y J,Wei W S,et al.A 352-year record of summer temperature reconstruction in the western Tianshan Mountains,China,as deduced from tree-ring density[J].Quaternary Research,2013,80(2):158-166.
[6]Chen Feng,Yuan Yujiang,Yu Shulong,et al.A 225-year long drought reconstruction for east Xinjiang based on Siberia larch(Larix sibirica)tree-ring widths:Reveals the recent dry trend of the eastern end of Tianshan[J].Quaternary International,2015,358:42-47.
[7]尚华明,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.树木年轮记录的新疆新源350 a来温度变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):187-190.[Shang Huaming,Wei Wenshou,Yuan Yujiang,et al.Variations of temperature during last 350 years at Xinyuan recorded by tree-ring[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(9):187-190.]
[8]张同文,王丽丽,袁玉江,等.利用树轮宽度资料重建天山中段南坡巴仑台地区过去645年来的降水变化[J].地理科学,2011,31(20):251-256.[Zhang Tongwen,Wang Lili,Yuan Yujiang,et al.Based on the data of tree-ring,the precipitation change in the Baluntai area on the south slope of the middle part of Tianshan Mountain has been reconstructed in the past 645 years[J].Geographic Science,2011,31(20):251-256.]
[9]齐元元,尚华明,张瑞波,等.利用树轮重建玛纳斯河流域过去289 a降水变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(4):942-949.[Qi Yuanyuan,Shang Huaming,Zhang Ruibo,et al.The 289-year variation of precipitation reconstructed with tree-ring data in the Manas River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(4):942-949.]
[10]尚华明,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.树轮记录的中天山150年降水变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(3):443-449.[Shang Huaming,Wei Wenshou,Yuan Yujiang,et al.The 150-year precipitation change recorded by tree ring in the Central Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(3):443-449.]
[11]Campelo F,Nabais C,Gutiérrez E,et al.Vessel features of Quercus ilex L.growing under Mediterranean climate have a better climatic signal than tree-ring width[J].Trees,2010,24(3):463-470.
[12]Nowak A,Nowak S,Nobis M,et al.Vegetation of screes of the montane and colline zones in the Pamir-Alai Mts in Tajikistan(Middle Asia)[J].Plant Biosystems,2015,148(6):223-248.
[13]Shukurov N,Kodirov O,Peitzsch M,et al.Coupling geochemical,mineralogical and microbiological approaches to assess the health of contaminated soil around the Almalyk mining and smelter complex,Uzbekistan[J].Science of the Total Environment,2014,476-477:447-459.
[14]Harris I,Jones P D,Osborn T,et al.Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS 3.10 Dataset[J].International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(3):623-642.
[15]Fritts H C.Tree Rings and Climate[M].London:Academic Press,1976.
[16]Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-Ring Bulletin,1983,43(1):69-78.
[17]Cook E R.A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree-Ring Standardization[D].Tucson:The University of Arizona,1985.
[18]Cook E R,Kairiukstis L A.Methods of Dendrochronology[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1990:1-391.
[19]Efron B.Bootstrap methods:Another look at the jackknife[J].The Annals of Statistics,1979,7(1):1-26.