基于“量-质-域-流”四维指标体系的水资源荷载状况评价——以黑河流域三地市为例
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摘要
随着社会经济用水不断增加,水资源供需矛盾加剧,水资源系统出现荷载不均衡现象,制约了区域发展,危及生态环境良性循环。本文从水资源系统的负荷需求和承载能力出发,基于"量、质、域、流"四个维度构建水资源荷载均衡评价指标体系,采用指标规范化的正态云模型,评价2015年黑河流域张掖市、酒泉市、阿拉善盟水资源配置方案的荷载均衡状况,并依据负荷与承载能力评分二维坐标,分出低负荷-高承载能力、低负荷-低承载能力、高负荷-高承载能力和高负荷-低承载能力四个分区。评价结果表明:2015年三地水资源荷载状况均为Ⅳ级,张掖市综合评分为3.697,酒泉市为3.657,阿拉善盟为3.901,三地均处于高负荷-低承载能力区域;三地在水质维度上处于低负荷-高承载能力区间,水质维度评分均处于Ⅱ级,酒泉市水质评分优于张掖市,张掖市水质评分优于阿拉善盟;在水量、水域、水流维度上均处于高负荷-低承载能力区间,水量方面三地处于Ⅳ级,张掖市优于酒泉市,酒泉市优于阿拉善盟;水域方面张掖和阿拉善盟评分均处于Ⅴ级,酒泉评分处于Ⅳ级;水流方面三地均处于Ⅴ级。需要采取调控手段在水量、水域、水流方面上进行"增强承载"和"卸荷"。
With increasing water consumption for social and economic activities, the challenges between supply and demand of water resources have become severe. The loading state of water resources system has become unbalanced, which could restrain regional development and endanger the virtuous cycle of ecological environment. Based on a four dimensional indexes including quantity, quality, watershed, and flow, an evaluation index system of water resources loading state from both aspects of loading and carrying capacity was constructed. A normal cloud model of the normalized indicators was used to evaluate the loading state of water resources allocation schemes in three cities of Zhangye, Jiuquan, and Alxa in Hei River basin in 2015. According to the two-dimensional coordinates of loading score and carrying capacity score, the loading state was divided into four quadrants:low loading-high carrying capacity, low loading-low carrying capacity, high loading-high carrying capacity, and high loading-low carrying capacity. The result indicated that overall water resources loading states of three cities were classified as class Ⅳ, high loading-low carrying capacity, based on the comprehensive scores, Zhangye was 3.697, Jiuquan was 3.657, Alxa was 3.901. The quality loading state of three cities was in low loading-high carrying capacity quadrant, class Ⅱ. The water quality score of Jiuquan was superior to that of Zhangye. The water quality score of Zhangye was superior to that of Alxa. In the aspects of quantity, watershed and flow, the loading states fell into high loading-low carrying capacity quadrant. The quantity loading state of three cities were class Ⅳ. The water quality score of Zhangye was superior to that of Jiuquan, The water quality score of Jiuquan was superior to that of Alxa. The watershed loading states of Zhangye and Alxa were classⅤ, Jiuquan was class Ⅳ. The flow loading state of three cities were class Ⅴ. The control measures of "enhancing capacity" and "decreasing load" need to be executed in the aspects of quantity, watershed, and flow.
With increasing water consumption for social and economic activities, the challenges between supply and demand of water resources have become severe. The loading state of water resources system has become unbalanced, which could restrain regional development and endanger the virtuous cycle of ecological environment. Based on a four dimensional indexes including quantity, quality, watershed, and flow, an evaluation index system of water resources loading state from both aspects of loading and carrying capacity was constructed. A normal cloud model of the normalized indicators was used to evaluate the loading state of water resources allocation schemes in three cities of Zhangye, Jiuquan, and Alxa in Hei River basin in 2015. According to the two-dimensional coordinates of loading score and carrying capacity score, the loading state was divided into four quadrants:low loading-high carrying capacity, low loading-low carrying capacity, high loading-high carrying capacity, and high loading-low carrying capacity. The result indicated that overall water resources loading states of three cities were classified as class Ⅳ, high loading-low carrying capacity, based on the comprehensive scores, Zhangye was 3.697, Jiuquan was 3.657, Alxa was 3.901. The quality loading state of three cities was in low loading-high carrying capacity quadrant, class Ⅱ. The water quality score of Jiuquan was superior to that of Zhangye. The water quality score of Zhangye was superior to that of Alxa. In the aspects of quantity, watershed and flow, the loading states fell into high loading-low carrying capacity quadrant. The quantity loading state of three cities were class Ⅳ. The water quality score of Zhangye was superior to that of Jiuquan, The water quality score of Jiuquan was superior to that of Alxa. The watershed loading states of Zhangye and Alxa were classⅤ, Jiuquan was class Ⅳ. The flow loading state of three cities were class Ⅴ. The control measures of "enhancing capacity" and "decreasing load" need to be executed in the aspects of quantity, watershed, and flow.
引文
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[22] 李陶,李付伟,李向新,等.地震灾害风险的正态云模型评价——以毕节市为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(10):166-171.
[23] 李祚泳,王文圣,汪嘉杨.水资源水环境模型智能优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:129,132.
[2] Harris J M,Kennedy S.Carrying capacity in agriculture:global and regional issues[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):443-461.
[3] Rijsberman,Michiel A,Frans H M van de Ven.Different approaches to assessment of design and management of sustainable urban water systems[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,20(3):333-345.
[4] Koop S H A,V Leeuwen C J.Assessment of the sustainability of water resources management:a critical review of the city blueprint approach[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(15):5649-5670.
[5] 王浩,秦大庸,王建华,等.西北内陆干旱区水资源承载能力研究[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(2):151-159.
[6] 谢高地,周海林,甄霖,等.中国水资源对发展的承载能力研究[J].资源科学,2005,(4):2-7.
[7] 王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1-7.
[8] 何仁伟,刘邵权,刘运伟.基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例.[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1376-1382.
[9] 金菊良,洪天求,王文圣.基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型.[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(4):22-28.
[10] 袁伟,楼章华,田娟.富阳市水资源承载能力综合评价[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):103-108.
[11] 周亮广,梁虹.基于主成分分析和熵的喀斯特地区水资源承载力动态变化研究——以贵阳市为例[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(5):827-833.
[12] 宰松梅,温季,仵峰,等.河南省新乡市水资源承载力评价研究[J].水利学报,2011,42(7):783-788.
[13] 周云哲,粟晓玲.基于指标规范化的正态云模型的水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):18-24.
[14] 信桂新,杨朝现,杨庆媛,等.用熵权法和改进TOPSIS模型评价高标准基本农田建设后效应[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):238-249.
[15] 邹志红,孙靖南,任广平.模糊评价因子的熵权法赋权及其在水质评价中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(4):552-556.
[16] 杨志超,张成龙,葛乐,等.基于熵权法的绝缘子污闪状态模糊综合评价[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(4):90-94.
[17] Li D Y.Knowledge representation in KDD based on linguistic atoms [J].Journal of Computer Science and Technology,1997,12(6):481-496.
[18] 张杨,严金明,江平,等.基于正态云模型的湖北省土地资源生态安全评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(22):252-258.
[19] 冯学慧.基于熵权法与正态云模型的大坝安全综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(11):57-60.
[20] 江辉,张清联,彭建春.基于改进云物元模型的风电场电能质量评价[J].电网技术,2014,38(1):205-210.
[21] 龚艳冰.基于正态云模型和熵权的河西走廊城市化生态风险综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(5):169-174.
[22] 李陶,李付伟,李向新,等.地震灾害风险的正态云模型评价——以毕节市为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(10):166-171.
[23] 李祚泳,王文圣,汪嘉杨.水资源水环境模型智能优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:129,132.