中国典型社会源危险废物的资源潜力分析
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摘要
对中国典型社会源危险废物的潜在资源量进行了预测与估算.在界定社会源危险废物概念和构建其物质代谢模型的基础上,根据GM(1,1)灰色预测模型及Weibull寿命分布模型,利用2006～2015年中国典型社会源危险废物原产品消费的时间序列样本数据,模拟了其消费量和报废量的动态变化趋势,进一步建立了潜在资源量预测模型并分析了潜在资源的再利用价值.据预测,2025年中国将产生废旧铅酸电池4.16亿k W·h、节能灯6.34亿支和线路板1.09亿m~2,可回收的资源总量达1200万t以上,包括贵金属0.15万t、具有环境危害性的重金属368万t和其它可回收资源879万t.
This paper predicts and estimates the potential amount of resources that can be recycled from typical social-sourcedhazardous wastes in China. This paper defines the concept of social-sourced hazardous wastes in China and constructs their materialmetabolism model. Leveraging GM(1,1) Model and Weibull Distribution Model, we predict the consumption and scrap amountdynamic of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes and further build the forecasting model of potential amount of resources that canbe generated from those wastes. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility and value of potential resources. Our research data contain theamount of original products(of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes) consumed in China from 2006 to 2015. As the results of ourprediction, by 2025, 416 million k W·h of spent lead-acid batteries, 634 million of waste energy-saving bulbs, and 109 million squaremeters of waste circuit boards will be produced in China; potentially more than 12 million tons of renewable resources can berecycled from these typical social-sourced hazardous wastes, mainly including 1500 tons of precious metals, 3.68 million tons ofhazardous heavy metals, and 8.79 million tons of other renewable resources.
This paper predicts and estimates the potential amount of resources that can be recycled from typical social-sourcedhazardous wastes in China. This paper defines the concept of social-sourced hazardous wastes in China and constructs their materialmetabolism model. Leveraging GM(1,1) Model and Weibull Distribution Model, we predict the consumption and scrap amountdynamic of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes and further build the forecasting model of potential amount of resources that canbe generated from those wastes. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility and value of potential resources. Our research data contain theamount of original products(of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes) consumed in China from 2006 to 2015. As the results of ourprediction, by 2025, 416 million k W·h of spent lead-acid batteries, 634 million of waste energy-saving bulbs, and 109 million squaremeters of waste circuit boards will be produced in China; potentially more than 12 million tons of renewable resources can berecycled from these typical social-sourced hazardous wastes, mainly including 1500 tons of precious metals, 3.68 million tons ofhazardous heavy metals, and 8.79 million tons of other renewable resources.
引文
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[10]Furlani E,Tonello G,Maschio S.Recycling of steel slag and glass cullet from energy saving lamps by fast firing production of ceramics[J].Waste Management,2010,30(8/9):1714.
[11]Fikri E,Purwanto P,Sunoko H R.Modelling of household hazardous waste(HHW)management in Semarang city(Indonesia)by using life cycle assessment(LCA)approach to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2015,23:123-129.
[12]Wagner T P,Toews P,Bouvier R.Increasing diversion of household hazardous wastes and materials through mandatory retail take-back[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,123(1):88-97.
[13]许治国,朱能武,杨崇,等.废旧线路板中主要有价金属的生物反应器浸出研究[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(1):201-206.Xu Z G,Zhu N W,Yang C,etc.Study of bioreactor for mainly valuable metals recovery from waste printed circuit boards[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(1):201-206.
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[26]中国产业信息.2017年中国PCB电路板行业产销量及未来发展前景速度分析预测[EB/OL].http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201707/541258.html,2017-7-14/2017-12-15.China Industry Information.The analysis and forecast of Chinese PCBindustry production and sales and future development speed in 2017[EB/OL].http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201707/541258.html,2017-7-14/2017-12-15.
[27]中国产业信息.中国PCB行业进出口情况及行业周期性分析[EB/OL].http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201409/281518.html,2014-09-18/2017-12-15.China Industry Information.The analysis of Chinese PCB industry import and export situation and industry cycle[EB/OL].http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201409/281518.html,2014-09-18/2017-12-15.
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