乌鲁木齐地区夏季气象干旱的变化特征及成因分析
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摘要
为了更准确的掌握乌鲁木齐地区夏季气象干旱的变化特征并研究其成因,以乌鲁木齐地区5个站点的历史降水资料为基础,统计得到其1961—2015年夏季累积降水在100~250 mm范围内变化,并通过计算Z指数来表征干旱变化特征,利用Mann-Kendall检验和Morlet小波分析归纳了乌鲁木齐夏季气象干旱在1980年代中期的突变特征以及1986年以来12 a左右的周期性变化特征。在此基础上结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、JRA海表温度(SST)等数据,通过对比典型旱/涝年的异常特征,对夏季气象干旱发生的成因进行了分析,发现低纬东风输送强时水汽可由80°~90°E向北越过青藏高原影响新疆地区,反之则包括乌鲁木齐在内的天山以北地区可降水量都偏少,并且指出赤道东太平洋SST异常所导致的赤道纬向垂直环流异常是导致这一差异的可能成因。此外还对乌鲁木齐夏季气象干旱与大气环流指数存在的关联进行了讨论。这些结果为乌鲁木齐降水机理研究以及气候预报提供了重要依据,并为人工影响天气和抗旱减灾工作提供了有力支撑。
Urumqi area is an important political,economic and cultural center in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and northwest China,it is also an inland area threaten by drought. In order to better understand the characteristics of meteorological drought in Urumqi area in summer and study its causes,historical precipitation data from5 stations in Urumqi area from 1961 to 2015 were utilized,and the statistical result shows that the accumulated precipitation in summer kept changing in the range between 100 mm to 250 mm. Then,Z index was calculated to show the variation characteristics of meteorological drought,and an abrupt change point in mid 1980 s and a periodicity change of about 12 years were found by using Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. Based on this,using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and JRA sea surface temperature( SST) data,the causes of drought in summer was studied by comparing the anomalies of relevant meteorological variable fields in drought years and flood years. It is found that water vapor can pass over the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from south to the north at 80 ~ 90°E and affect Xinjiang area when the east wind at low latitude West Pacific is strong,otherwise there will be less precipitable water in the northern part of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang including Urumqi area. It is also found that the anomalies of vertical zonal circulation of equator caused by SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific is the possible cause of these differences. In addition,the relationship between meteorological drought and 74 atmospheric circulation index in summer in Urumqi is also discussed,and 10 indexes in early season show significant correlations with the drought variation in Urumqi. These results can help to improve the climate forecast and support the weather modification,drought resistance and disaster reduction work.
Urumqi area is an important political,economic and cultural center in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and northwest China,it is also an inland area threaten by drought. In order to better understand the characteristics of meteorological drought in Urumqi area in summer and study its causes,historical precipitation data from5 stations in Urumqi area from 1961 to 2015 were utilized,and the statistical result shows that the accumulated precipitation in summer kept changing in the range between 100 mm to 250 mm. Then,Z index was calculated to show the variation characteristics of meteorological drought,and an abrupt change point in mid 1980 s and a periodicity change of about 12 years were found by using Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. Based on this,using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and JRA sea surface temperature( SST) data,the causes of drought in summer was studied by comparing the anomalies of relevant meteorological variable fields in drought years and flood years. It is found that water vapor can pass over the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from south to the north at 80 ~ 90°E and affect Xinjiang area when the east wind at low latitude West Pacific is strong,otherwise there will be less precipitable water in the northern part of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang including Urumqi area. It is also found that the anomalies of vertical zonal circulation of equator caused by SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific is the possible cause of these differences. In addition,the relationship between meteorological drought and 74 atmospheric circulation index in summer in Urumqi is also discussed,and 10 indexes in early season show significant correlations with the drought variation in Urumqi. These results can help to improve the climate forecast and support the weather modification,drought resistance and disaster reduction work.
引文
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[13]龙桃,熊黑钢,冯琳,等.内陆干旱区特大城市EKC特征研究——以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].曲阜师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,35(1):107-110.[LONG Tao,XIONG Heigang,FENG Lin,et al.The research of EKC characters of super city of inland arid area:Taking Urumqi as an example[J].Journal of Qufu Normal University,2009,35(1):107-110.]
[14]周宜卿,余锦华.西北太平洋热带气旋移动方向变化异常的环流特征[J].气象科学,2015,35(6):720-727.[ZHOU Yiqing,YU Jinhua.Circulation characteristics of track variation anomaly of tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(6):720-727.]
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].二版.北京:气象出版社,2007:69-72.[WEI Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:69-72.]
[16]李勇,杨晓光,代姝玮,等.气候变化背景下贵州省倒春寒灾害时空演变特征[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(8):2099-2108.[LI Yong,YANG Xiaoguang,DAI Shuwei,et al.Spatio temporal evolution characteristics of late spring cold in Guizhou Province under global climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2010,21(8):2099-2108.]
[17]王帅兵,李常斌,杨林山,等.基于标准化降水指数与Z指数的洮河流域干旱趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):565-572.[WANG Shuaibing,LI Changbin,YANG Linshan,et al.Drought trend analysis based on standardized precipitation index and the Z index in the Tao River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(3):565-572.]
[18]陈丽丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙,等.1960—2010年甘肃省不同气候区SPI与Z指数的年及春季变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(3):704-711.[CHEN Lili,LIU Puxing,YAO Yulong,et al.Variation characteristics of annual and spring standardized precipitation index and Z index in different climate regions of Gansu Province,northwest China in 1960—2010[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(3):704-711.]
[2]何英,姜卉芳,彭亮,等.基于可持续发展的乌鲁木齐市水资源供需分析[J].新疆环境保护,2014,36(1):10-16.[HE Ying,JIANG Huifang,PENG Liang,et al.Research on supply and demand of water resources of Urumqi basing on sustainable development[J].Environmental Protection of Xinjiang,2014,36(1):10-16.]
[3]唐宏,夏富强,杨德刚.干旱区绿洲城市水资源开发利用的潜力——以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(6):973-980.[TANG Hong,XIA Fuqiang,YANG Degang,Exploitation and utilization potentials of water resources in arid oasis city:A case study in Urumqi[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(6):973-980.]
[4]秦大河,丁一汇,王绍武,等.中国西部生态环境变化与对策建议[J].地球科学进展,2002,17(3):314-319.[QIN Dahe,DIN Yihui,WANG Shaowu,et al.Ecological and environmental change in west China and its responsestrategy[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2002,17(3):314-319.
[5]IPCC.Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Summary for Policymakers[R/OL].2013-10-27 http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Appoved 27Sep 2013.pdf.
[6]钱正安,吴统文,宋敏红,等.干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(1):28-38.[QIAN Zheng’an,WU Tongwen,SONG Minhong,et al.Arid disaster and advances in arid climate researches over northwest China[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2001,16(1):28-38.]
[7]万金红,吕娟,刘和平,等.1470—2008年中国西北干旱地区旱涝变化特征分析[J].水科学进展,2005,25(5):625-631.[WAN Jinhong,LV Juan,LIU Heping,et al.Drought-flood variation characteristics and trends in arid northwestern China during1470—2008[J].Advances in Water Science,2005,25(5):625-631.]
[8]任培贵,张勃,张调风,等.基于SPEI的中国西北地区气象干旱变化趋势分析[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):182-192.[REN Peigui,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Tiaofeng,et al.Trend analysis of meteorological drought change in northwest China based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,34(1):182-192.]
[9]杨建玲,冯建民,穆建华,等.西北地区东部季节干旱的时空变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):949-958.[YANG Jianling,FENG Jianmin,MU Jianhua,et al.Ananalysis of the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of seasonal drought in the east of northwest China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):949-958.]
[10]刘惠云,王晓梅,肖书君,等.乌鲁木齐市近40多年降水演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(6):6785-6789.[LIU Huiyun,WANG Xiaomei,XIAO Shujun,et al.Study on the change of precipitation in Urumqi since recent 40 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2007,24(6):6785-6789.]
[11]成鹏.乌鲁木齐地区近50 a降水特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(4):580-587.[CHENG Peng.Characteristics of precipitation in the Urumqi regions over the past 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2010,33(4):580-587.]
[12]买买提·阿布来提,张英哲,梁云,等.2008年乌鲁木齐地区异常干旱[J].现代农业科技,2009,(8):282-283.[ABLET Maimaiti,ZHANG Yinzhe,LIANG Yun,et al.Analysis of abnormal drought in Urumqi area in 2008[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2009,(8):282-283.]
[13]龙桃,熊黑钢,冯琳,等.内陆干旱区特大城市EKC特征研究——以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].曲阜师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,35(1):107-110.[LONG Tao,XIONG Heigang,FENG Lin,et al.The research of EKC characters of super city of inland arid area:Taking Urumqi as an example[J].Journal of Qufu Normal University,2009,35(1):107-110.]
[14]周宜卿,余锦华.西北太平洋热带气旋移动方向变化异常的环流特征[J].气象科学,2015,35(6):720-727.[ZHOU Yiqing,YU Jinhua.Circulation characteristics of track variation anomaly of tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(6):720-727.]
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].二版.北京:气象出版社,2007:69-72.[WEI Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:69-72.]
[16]李勇,杨晓光,代姝玮,等.气候变化背景下贵州省倒春寒灾害时空演变特征[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(8):2099-2108.[LI Yong,YANG Xiaoguang,DAI Shuwei,et al.Spatio temporal evolution characteristics of late spring cold in Guizhou Province under global climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2010,21(8):2099-2108.]
[17]王帅兵,李常斌,杨林山,等.基于标准化降水指数与Z指数的洮河流域干旱趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):565-572.[WANG Shuaibing,LI Changbin,YANG Linshan,et al.Drought trend analysis based on standardized precipitation index and the Z index in the Tao River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(3):565-572.]
[18]陈丽丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙,等.1960—2010年甘肃省不同气候区SPI与Z指数的年及春季变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(3):704-711.[CHEN Lili,LIU Puxing,YAO Yulong,et al.Variation characteristics of annual and spring standardized precipitation index and Z index in different climate regions of Gansu Province,northwest China in 1960—2010[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(3):704-711.]