广西极端连续降水变化趋势及周期性研究
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摘要
为分析广西极端连续降水时空变化特征,选取1958~2015年广西23个气象站点逐日降水资料,综合运用改进的百分位法、Mann-Kendall检验法及复Morlet小波分析法,分析广西1~5d极端连续降水的降水量和降水频次。结果表明,近58年广西极端连续降水量存在桂东北、桂南两个高值区和桂西北、桂东两个低值区;随着持续天数的增加,极端连续降水频次的高值中心由桂东北逐渐向中部蒙山地区移动,且低值区与高值区的差值逐渐缩小,说明极端连续降水的区域持续性随着持续天数的增加而增强;极端连续降水总体呈增加趋势,且随着持续天数的增加有两极分化的极端化趋势;1~5d极端连续降水26~28年周期最为显著,并嵌套几个长度不等的小周期,其中4~6、11~12、16~18年周期震荡较为强烈,目前广西正处于各天数极端连续降水的增加时期。
In order to study the spatial-temporal variations of extreme continuous precipitation in Guangxi,choosing the daily precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2015,the quantity and the frequency of 1~5 dextreme continuous precipitation were analyzed by using improved percentile method,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The result shows that in recent 58 years,there are two high-value regions of extreme continuous precipitation in northeastern and southern Guangxi,and two low-value regions in northwestern and eastern Guangxi.With the increase of lasting days,the high-frequency center of extreme continuous precipitation moves gradually from northeastern Guangxi to central Mengshan region;in addition,the difference between high-frequency region and low-frequency region is shortened,which indicates that regional sustainability of extreme continuous precipitation is enhanced with the increase of its lasting days.Extreme continuous precipitation presents an overall increasing trend,as the lasting days increases,it has an extreme trend of polarization.1~5 dextreme continuous precipitation presents variations in a most significant period of 26~28 years,and this period nests several sub-periods of different length,among which the period of 4~6 years,11~12 years and 16~18 years oscillates relatively more strongly.Guangxi is now in an increasing period of extreme continuous precipitation in its all range of lasting days.
In order to study the spatial-temporal variations of extreme continuous precipitation in Guangxi,choosing the daily precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2015,the quantity and the frequency of 1~5 dextreme continuous precipitation were analyzed by using improved percentile method,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The result shows that in recent 58 years,there are two high-value regions of extreme continuous precipitation in northeastern and southern Guangxi,and two low-value regions in northwestern and eastern Guangxi.With the increase of lasting days,the high-frequency center of extreme continuous precipitation moves gradually from northeastern Guangxi to central Mengshan region;in addition,the difference between high-frequency region and low-frequency region is shortened,which indicates that regional sustainability of extreme continuous precipitation is enhanced with the increase of its lasting days.Extreme continuous precipitation presents an overall increasing trend,as the lasting days increases,it has an extreme trend of polarization.1~5 dextreme continuous precipitation presents variations in a most significant period of 26~28 years,and this period nests several sub-periods of different length,among which the period of 4~6 years,11~12 years and 16~18 years oscillates relatively more strongly.Guangxi is now in an increasing period of extreme continuous precipitation in its all range of lasting days.
引文
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[4]李剑锋,张强,白云岗,等.新疆地区最大连续降水事件时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):312-320.
[5]张剑明,廖玉芳,段丽洁,等.湖南近50年极端连续降水的气候变化趋势[J].地理研究,2012,31(6):1 004-1 015.
[6]罗梦森,熊世为,梁宇飞.区域极端降水事件阈值计算方法比较分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(5):549-554.
[7]李建鸿,蒙歆媛,翟禄新,等.1951-2006年广西极端连续降水的时空变化分析[J].广西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,34(1):187-196.
[8]闵屾,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的区域性和持续性研究[J].水科学进展,2008,19(6):763-771.