三峡水库蓄水后库区气候要素变化趋势分析
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摘要
为获取三峡水库建成蓄水后各种水循环要素的变化情况,基于2004～2016年库区12个沿江代表站的气象数据,采用趋势分析法和相关分析法研究了三峡库区相关气候要素的变化情况,并与前人的相关研究成果对比,探讨其变化趋势及变化原因。结果表明:水库蓄水后,由于下垫面的改变,水库年均气温呈弱的下降趋势,年均降水量与降水日数增加,年均相对湿度减小,风速增加,蒸发量下降;影响蒸发量的主要因素是年均气温、年均相对湿度与日照时数。研究成果可为气候变化背景下三峡库区水分、能量循环研究提供理论依据和参考。
In order to obtain the variation of the water cycle elements in Three Gorges Reservoir area after impoundment, we studied the variation trend of climate factors by trend analysis method and related analysis method based on the meteorological data of 12 representative stations along the Yangtze River in the reservoir area from 2004 to 2016. Furthermore, we explored the causes for the change by comparing the results with relevant research of predecessors. The results showed that: after the reservoir impoundment, for the change of the underlying surface, the annual average temperature weakly decreased, the annual average precipitation and precipitation days increased, the annual average relative humidity decreased, the wind speed increased, and the evaporation decreased. The main factors affecting evaporation were annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity and sunshine duration. The results can provide theoretical basis and reference for the study of water and energy cycle in the Three Gorges Reservoir area under the background of climate change.
In order to obtain the variation of the water cycle elements in Three Gorges Reservoir area after impoundment, we studied the variation trend of climate factors by trend analysis method and related analysis method based on the meteorological data of 12 representative stations along the Yangtze River in the reservoir area from 2004 to 2016. Furthermore, we explored the causes for the change by comparing the results with relevant research of predecessors. The results showed that: after the reservoir impoundment, for the change of the underlying surface, the annual average temperature weakly decreased, the annual average precipitation and precipitation days increased, the annual average relative humidity decreased, the wind speed increased, and the evaporation decreased. The main factors affecting evaporation were annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity and sunshine duration. The results can provide theoretical basis and reference for the study of water and energy cycle in the Three Gorges Reservoir area under the background of climate change.
引文
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[2] 陈鲜艳,张强,叶殿秀,等.三峡库区局地气候变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(1):47-51.
[3] 张天宇,范莉,孙杰,等.1961～2008年三峡库区气候变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010(S1):52-61.
[4] 韩庆忠,向锋,马力,等.三峡库首典型区2001～2010年局地气象因子变化趋势分析[J].土壤,2012,44(6):1029-1034.
[5] 赵耀,李超,王栋,等.抚仙湖流域蒸发与降水的变化趋势及原因分析[J].山东农业科学,2017(10):100-105.
[6] 林德生,吴昌广,周志翔,等.三峡库区近50 a来的气温变化趋势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(9):1037-1043.
[7] 廖要明,张强,陈德亮.1951～2006年三峡库区夏季气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(6):368-372.
[8] 张强,万素琴,毛以伟,等.三峡库区复杂地形下的气温变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(4):164-167.
[9] 陈鲜艳,宋连春,郭占峰,等.长江三峡库区和上游气候变化特点及其影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(11):1466.
[10]陈祥义,肖文发,黄志霖,等. 1951~2012年三峡库区降水时空变化研究[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(8):1310-1315.
[11]张树奎,鲁子爱,张楠.三峡水库蓄水对库区降水量的影响分析[J].水电能源科学,2013(5):21-23.
[12]李春,刘德义,黄鹤. 1958~2007年天津降水量和降水日数变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(4):8-11.
[13]王艳君,姜彤,许崇育,等.长江流域1961~2000年蒸发量变化趋势研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(3):99-105.
[14]张祎,李红卫.宜昌地区水面蒸发量时空分布探讨[J].人民长江,2006,37(12):30-31.
[15]李艳,高阳华,陈鲜艳,等.三峡下垫面变化对区域气候效应的影响研究[J].南京大学学报;自然科学,2011,47(3):330-338.