1961—2015年新疆天山日照时数时空变化特征及其影响因素分析
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摘要
采用新疆天山地区55个气象站1961—2015年逐月气象数据,用Mann-Kendall突变检验、基于ArcGIS的混合插值及偏相关分析对天山日照时数年、季节特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①天山日照时数年及季节均呈减少趋势,天山各区域变化差异显著,山区及天山北坡变化趋势明显于南坡。②天山北坡、天山南坡及天山山区年日照时数突变时间为1985年、1980年和1988年,云量和降水是导致突变发生的主导因素。③新疆天山年日照时数由西向东逐渐增加,平原多、山区少,春季呈"东北部多、西南部少",夏季为"东北部多、西南部少",平原盆地高于山区,秋季呈现"北少南多,东多西少",冬季由南向北逐渐减少。④云量、降水是导致天山地区日照减少的主要因素,少云区日照时数较多,多云区日照时数较少,天山云量减幅或增幅区域,日照时数突变量变化明显。
Sunshine duration is one of the elements that characterize the strength of solar radiation,and it is closely related to the utilization of light and heat energy in agriculture.The temporal and spatial variation of annual and seasonal sunshine duration in Tianshan Mountain and its causes are analyzed by using the method of anomaly variation trend,5-years moving averge,M-K test and IDW residual error revision by ArcGIS,based on sunshine duration,precipitation,temperature,cloudiness,wind speed and relative humidity of 55 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015.The conclusions show:(1)Annual and all seasonal,except in spring,variations showed a declined temporal trend.The differences in the Tianshan Mountain were significant,and the trends in the mountain area and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain were more obvious than that in the southern Tianshan.(2)The Mann-Kendall mutation test shows that in recent 55 years,the mutation times of annual sunshine hours in the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains,the sourthern slopes of Tianshan Mountains and the mountain areas were 1985,1980 and 1988.In spring,only the mountainous area was mutated.And in winter,only the southern slopes of the Tianshan Moutains and the sunshine hours in the montains were mutated.The results show that the cloud cover and precipititation were the leading factors in the occurrence of muations.(3)There was obvious regional differences in the climatic distribution of seasonal and annual sunshine duration;generally,the sunshine duration of Tianshan Mountain showed a increasing trend from west to east and those of the plains were reater than ththose of mountain areas.In spring,the sunshine duration was higher in northeast than in southwest.In summer,the spatial distribution of sunshine duration was similar with spring,high in northeast and low in southwest.In autumn,the sunshine duration increased from south to north and higher in east than in west.The distribution of sunshine duration in winter reduced from south to north gradually.(4)The factors of precipitation,cloud amount,relative humidity showed a negative correlation with sunshine duration.There were positive seasonal correlation between sunshine duration and wind speed in the Tianshan area,except in spring.In recent 55 years,the amount of clouds and precipitation changed significantly,which were the main factors leading to the decrease of sunshine duration in the Tianshan area.The number of sunshine hours changed significantly in Tianshan Mountain.
Sunshine duration is one of the elements that characterize the strength of solar radiation,and it is closely related to the utilization of light and heat energy in agriculture.The temporal and spatial variation of annual and seasonal sunshine duration in Tianshan Mountain and its causes are analyzed by using the method of anomaly variation trend,5-years moving averge,M-K test and IDW residual error revision by ArcGIS,based on sunshine duration,precipitation,temperature,cloudiness,wind speed and relative humidity of 55 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015.The conclusions show:(1)Annual and all seasonal,except in spring,variations showed a declined temporal trend.The differences in the Tianshan Mountain were significant,and the trends in the mountain area and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain were more obvious than that in the southern Tianshan.(2)The Mann-Kendall mutation test shows that in recent 55 years,the mutation times of annual sunshine hours in the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains,the sourthern slopes of Tianshan Mountains and the mountain areas were 1985,1980 and 1988.In spring,only the mountainous area was mutated.And in winter,only the southern slopes of the Tianshan Moutains and the sunshine hours in the montains were mutated.The results show that the cloud cover and precipititation were the leading factors in the occurrence of muations.(3)There was obvious regional differences in the climatic distribution of seasonal and annual sunshine duration;generally,the sunshine duration of Tianshan Mountain showed a increasing trend from west to east and those of the plains were reater than ththose of mountain areas.In spring,the sunshine duration was higher in northeast than in southwest.In summer,the spatial distribution of sunshine duration was similar with spring,high in northeast and low in southwest.In autumn,the sunshine duration increased from south to north and higher in east than in west.The distribution of sunshine duration in winter reduced from south to north gradually.(4)The factors of precipitation,cloud amount,relative humidity showed a negative correlation with sunshine duration.There were positive seasonal correlation between sunshine duration and wind speed in the Tianshan area,except in spring.In recent 55 years,the amount of clouds and precipitation changed significantly,which were the main factors leading to the decrease of sunshine duration in the Tianshan area.The number of sunshine hours changed significantly in Tianshan Mountain.
引文
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[13]张山清,普宗朝,李景林.近50年新疆日照时数时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1481-1492.
[14]龙海丽,王爱辉,彭健,等.新疆奎屯区近50a日照时数的变化特征研究[J].新疆农业科学,2015,52(2):300-305.
[15]Stanhill G,Cohen S.Global dimming:A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequence[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2001,107:255-278
[16]张立波,肖薇.1961-2010年新疆日照时数的时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):130-137.
[17]张正勇,刘琳,唐湘玲.1960-2010年中国天山山区气候变化区域差异及突变特征[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(11):1475-1484
[18]赵雪雁,雒丽,王亚茹,等.1963-2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2113-2122.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:42-113.
[20]宁和平,敖泽建,赵红岩.甘南白龙江流域光照资源的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(7):1207-1215.
[21]李景林,张山清,普宗朝,等.近50a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(2):228-237.
[22]普宗朝,张山清,宾建华,等.新疆-乌昌地区干湿气候要素时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2314-2322.
[23]朱选,刘素霞.地理信息系统原理与技术[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2006:171-173.
[24]辛宏,张明军,李瑞雪,等.近50年中国天山日照时数变化及其影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(3):485-491.
[25]Satheesh S K,Moorth K K.Radiative effects of natural aerosols:a review[J].Atmospheric Environment,2005,39(11):2089-2110.
[26]周晓宇,张新宜,崔研,等.1961-2009年东北地区日照时数变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(5):112-120.
[27]林俊,刘卫,李燕,等.大气气溶胶粒径分布特征与气象条件的相关性分析[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(1):1-5.
[28]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
[29]王亚敏,冯起,李宗省.1960-2005年西北地区低云量的时空变化及成因分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):635-640.
[2]黄菊梅,赖顶梅,向涛,等.1960-2012年洞庭湖区日照时数的变化特征及影响因素[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(3):755-760.
[3]陈小敏,陈汇林,邹海平.1961-2010年海南岛日照时数时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(1):161-166.
[4]刘强吉,武胜利,房靓,等.1961-2013年巴州地区日照时数变化特征分析[J].气象与环境,2016,32(2):79-88.
[5]肖莲桂,祁栋林,石明章.1961-2013年青海省柴达木盆地日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(2):106-114.
[6]马金玉,罗勇,申彦波,等.太阳能预报方法及其应用和问题[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):829-837.
[7]虞海燕,刘树华,赵娜,等.我国近59年日照时数变化特征及其与温度、风速、降水的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(3):389-398.
[8]赵东,罗勇,高歌,等.1961年至2007年中国日照的演变及其关键气候特征[J].资源科学,2010,32(4):701-711.
[9]陈少勇,张康林,邢晓斌,等.中国西北地区近47a日照时数的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2010(25):1142-1152.
[10]杜军,边多,胡军,廖健,等.西藏近35年日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2007,62(5):492-500.
[11]张少婷,肖国杰,范广洲,等.青海省日照时数的时空变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):121-126.
[12]杨晓梅,安文玲,张薇,等.中国西南地区日照时数变化及影响因素[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):48-59.
[13]张山清,普宗朝,李景林.近50年新疆日照时数时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(11):1481-1492.
[14]龙海丽,王爱辉,彭健,等.新疆奎屯区近50a日照时数的变化特征研究[J].新疆农业科学,2015,52(2):300-305.
[15]Stanhill G,Cohen S.Global dimming:A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequence[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2001,107:255-278
[16]张立波,肖薇.1961-2010年新疆日照时数的时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):130-137.
[17]张正勇,刘琳,唐湘玲.1960-2010年中国天山山区气候变化区域差异及突变特征[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(11):1475-1484
[18]赵雪雁,雒丽,王亚茹,等.1963-2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2113-2122.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:42-113.
[20]宁和平,敖泽建,赵红岩.甘南白龙江流域光照资源的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(7):1207-1215.
[21]李景林,张山清,普宗朝,等.近50a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(2):228-237.
[22]普宗朝,张山清,宾建华,等.新疆-乌昌地区干湿气候要素时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2314-2322.
[23]朱选,刘素霞.地理信息系统原理与技术[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2006:171-173.
[24]辛宏,张明军,李瑞雪,等.近50年中国天山日照时数变化及其影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(3):485-491.
[25]Satheesh S K,Moorth K K.Radiative effects of natural aerosols:a review[J].Atmospheric Environment,2005,39(11):2089-2110.
[26]周晓宇,张新宜,崔研,等.1961-2009年东北地区日照时数变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(5):112-120.
[27]林俊,刘卫,李燕,等.大气气溶胶粒径分布特征与气象条件的相关性分析[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(1):1-5.
[28]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
[29]王亚敏,冯起,李宗省.1960-2005年西北地区低云量的时空变化及成因分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):635-640.