鄂尔多斯高原西部潜在蒸散发量变化规律研究——以鄂托克旗为例
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摘要
【目的】揭示鄂尔多斯高原西部潜在蒸散发量的变化规律。【方法】根据研究区1957—2013年逐日的气象资料,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散发量,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、累积距平曲线、Morlet小波分析法、偏相关分析及贡献率计算等方法对研究区潜在蒸散发量特征进行了分析。【结果】(1)研究区潜在蒸散发量总体呈下降趋势,下降幅度为1.51 mm/a;(2)M-K突变检验表明,年际潜在蒸散发量在1992年发生了突变,夏季突变点在1991年,其他季节突变点不明显;(3)潜在蒸散发存在28～29 a和9～10 a的主震荡周期。【结论】风速的下降是潜在蒸散发量减小的主要因素;同时,日照时间的减小和降水量的增加也是鄂尔多斯高原西部潜在蒸散发量减小的关键因素。
【Objective】Potential evapotranspiration is an important parameter in water resource management, and in this paper, we calculated its change in Western Ordos Plateau by taking Etoke County as an example.【Method】The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by the FAO Penmen-Monteith equation using the meteorological date measured from 1957 to 2013 in the region. The variation of the calculated potential evapotranspiration was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall curve, cumulative departure curve, Morlet wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the contribution rate calculation.【Result】The potential evapotranspiration in the studied area had been decline from 1957 to 2013 at 1.51 mm/per annum, with abrupt changes in 1992 for annual average and in 1991 for summer average. Its variation in spring, autumn and winter was relatively smooth. We identified two periods for the potential evapotranspiration, one was 28 to 29 years and the other one was 9 to 10 years. The prediction showed that potential evapotranspiration is to increase from 2013 to 2022.【Conclusion】The decrease in wind speed is the main factor driving the potential evapotranspiration in the study area to decline. The decreases in sunshine duration and precipitation also play an role in reducing the potential evapotranspiration in this region.
【Objective】Potential evapotranspiration is an important parameter in water resource management, and in this paper, we calculated its change in Western Ordos Plateau by taking Etoke County as an example.【Method】The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by the FAO Penmen-Monteith equation using the meteorological date measured from 1957 to 2013 in the region. The variation of the calculated potential evapotranspiration was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall curve, cumulative departure curve, Morlet wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the contribution rate calculation.【Result】The potential evapotranspiration in the studied area had been decline from 1957 to 2013 at 1.51 mm/per annum, with abrupt changes in 1992 for annual average and in 1991 for summer average. Its variation in spring, autumn and winter was relatively smooth. We identified two periods for the potential evapotranspiration, one was 28 to 29 years and the other one was 9 to 10 years. The prediction showed that potential evapotranspiration is to increase from 2013 to 2022.【Conclusion】The decrease in wind speed is the main factor driving the potential evapotranspiration in the study area to decline. The decreases in sunshine duration and precipitation also play an role in reducing the potential evapotranspiration in this region.
引文
[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013:The Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[2]高歌,陈德亮,任国玉,等.1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势[J].地理研究,2006,25(3):378-387.
[3]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.东北地区参考作物蒸散量对主要气象要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):11-18.
[4]谭娇,丁建丽,董煜,等.新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(5):143-148.
[5]孙晶华,张吴平,吴亚楠,等.山西省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(4):59-65.
[6]李晓光,刘华民,王立新,等.鄂尔多斯高原植被覆盖变化及其与气候和人类活动的关系[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(4):470-476.
[7]任健美,尤莉,高建峰,等.鄂尔多斯高原近40a气候变化研究[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(6):874-879.
[8]黄金廷,王文科,侯光才,等.鄂尔多斯高原近48a降水及蒸发特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):145-148.
[9]申彦波,赵东,祝昌汉,等.近50年来鄂尔多斯地面太阳辐射的变化及与相关气象要素的联系[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):786-794.
[10]宁婷婷,刘文兆,林文,等.近56年来内蒙古东胜矿区潜在蒸散发的时程变化[J].水土保持学报,2014,28(3):62-66.
[11]刘韵凤,李金霞,包玉海.鄂尔多斯高原西部土地荒漠化动态分析:以鄂托克旗为例[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,32(4):80-87.
[12]ALLEN R G,PEREIRAL S,RAES D,et al.Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements-FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.56[M].Rome:FAO-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,1998.
[13]李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿.黄河流域水文气象要素变化及与东亚夏季风的关系[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):481-490.
[14]李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.
[15]张青雯,崔宁博,冯禹,等.中国西南五省参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):80-87.
[16]董煜,海米提·依米提.1961-2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[17]尹云鹤,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.1971-2008年我国潜在蒸散时空演变的归因[J].科学通报,2010,55(22):2 226-2 234.
[2]高歌,陈德亮,任国玉,等.1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势[J].地理研究,2006,25(3):378-387.
[3]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.东北地区参考作物蒸散量对主要气象要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):11-18.
[4]谭娇,丁建丽,董煜,等.新疆艾比湖绿洲潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(5):143-148.
[5]孙晶华,张吴平,吴亚楠,等.山西省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(4):59-65.
[6]李晓光,刘华民,王立新,等.鄂尔多斯高原植被覆盖变化及其与气候和人类活动的关系[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(4):470-476.
[7]任健美,尤莉,高建峰,等.鄂尔多斯高原近40a气候变化研究[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(6):874-879.
[8]黄金廷,王文科,侯光才,等.鄂尔多斯高原近48a降水及蒸发特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):145-148.
[9]申彦波,赵东,祝昌汉,等.近50年来鄂尔多斯地面太阳辐射的变化及与相关气象要素的联系[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):786-794.
[10]宁婷婷,刘文兆,林文,等.近56年来内蒙古东胜矿区潜在蒸散发的时程变化[J].水土保持学报,2014,28(3):62-66.
[11]刘韵凤,李金霞,包玉海.鄂尔多斯高原西部土地荒漠化动态分析:以鄂托克旗为例[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,32(4):80-87.
[12]ALLEN R G,PEREIRAL S,RAES D,et al.Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements-FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.56[M].Rome:FAO-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,1998.
[13]李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿.黄河流域水文气象要素变化及与东亚夏季风的关系[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):481-490.
[14]李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.
[15]张青雯,崔宁博,冯禹,等.中国西南五省参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):80-87.
[16]董煜,海米提·依米提.1961-2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[17]尹云鹤,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.1971-2008年我国潜在蒸散时空演变的归因[J].科学通报,2010,55(22):2 226-2 234.