基于WBS-RBS-BN的蓄电池充电区域氢气火灾爆炸事故研究
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摘要
通过现场测试,明确了蓄电池充电区域氢气浓度分布规律.通过WBS-RBS分析方法,得出蓄电池充电区域氢气火灾爆炸事故风险事件耦合矩阵,以此为依据得到氢气火灾爆炸事故故障树,将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,使用Ge NIe软件计算蓄电池充电区域氢气爆炸事故发生概率为2.688e-4.通过贝叶斯网络双向推导功能,计算氢气火灾爆炸事故发生条件下基本事件的后验概率,从而分析出导致事故发生的安全技术或管理的薄弱环节为人体静电、操作工人抽烟、金属部件碰撞、蓄电池过充、蓄电池破裂和机械排风装置故障,并提出了相应的对策措施,降低了蓄电池充电区域发生氢气火灾爆炸事故的风险.
Through field tests,the distribution of hydrogen concentration in the battery charging area was clarified. Based on the WBS-RBS analysis method,the coupling matrices of the risk events of the hydrogen fire and explosion accident in the battery charging area were obtained.Then,the fault tree of hydrogen fire and explosion accident was obtained. After then the fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network. Thus the probability of the hydrogen fire or explosion accident in the battery charging area calculated by the Ge NIe is 2. 688 e-4. Through the bidirectional reasoning function of the Bayesian network,the posterior probability of the basic events under the condition of hydrogen fire and explosion accident was calculated. The safety technology or management weaknesses leading to the occurrence of the accident are: electrostatic discharge, operator smoking, metal collision, battery overcharging, battery rupture and mechanical exhaust system failure. The corresponding countermeasures are clarified to reduce the hydrogen fire and explosion accident risk of the battery charging area.
Through field tests,the distribution of hydrogen concentration in the battery charging area was clarified. Based on the WBS-RBS analysis method,the coupling matrices of the risk events of the hydrogen fire and explosion accident in the battery charging area were obtained.Then,the fault tree of hydrogen fire and explosion accident was obtained. After then the fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network. Thus the probability of the hydrogen fire or explosion accident in the battery charging area calculated by the Ge NIe is 2. 688 e-4. Through the bidirectional reasoning function of the Bayesian network,the posterior probability of the basic events under the condition of hydrogen fire and explosion accident was calculated. The safety technology or management weaknesses leading to the occurrence of the accident are: electrostatic discharge, operator smoking, metal collision, battery overcharging, battery rupture and mechanical exhaust system failure. The corresponding countermeasures are clarified to reduce the hydrogen fire and explosion accident risk of the battery charging area.
引文
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[2]李发荣.铅酸蓄电池室燃爆事故分析及其安全对策[C]//中国职业安全健康协会2005年学术年会论文集.宜昌,2005:238-241.(Li Fa-rong.Fault analysis on deflagration in the lead-acid storage battery chamber and its countermeasure[C]//Chinese Occupational Safety and Health Association Annual Conference Proceedings.Yichang,2005:238-241.)
[3]杨振华,张少波.铅酸蓄电池爆炸原因分析及注意事项[J].汽车电器,2006(9):47-49.(Yang Zhen-hua,Zhang Shao-bo.Lead-acid battery explosion:cause analysis and points for attention[J].Auto Electric Parts,2006(9):47-49.)
[4]王健,冯长征.铅酸蓄电池爆炸原因分析及其预防[J].内燃机,1999(6):38.(Wang Jian,Feng Chang-zheng.Analysis and prevention of lead acid battery explosion[J].Internal Combustion Engines,1999(6):38.)
[5]Rafele C,Hillson D,Grimaldi S.Understanding project risk exposure using the two-dimensional risk breakdown matrix[C]//2005 PMI Global Congress Proceedings.Newtown Square:PMI,2005:1-8.
[6]Hillson D,Grimaldi S,Rafele C.Managing project risks using a cross risk breakdown matrix[J].Risk Management,2006(8):61-76.
[7]Lindhea A,Rosena L,Norberg T,et al.Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems[J].Water Research,2009,43(6):1641-1653.
[8]Kales P.Reliability for technology,engineering and management[M].Taipei:Pearson Education Taiwan Ltd.,2006.
[9]O’Connor P D T.Practical reliability engineering[M].New York:John Wiley,2002.
[10]Graves T L,Hamada M S,Klamann R,et al.A fully Bayesian approach for combining multi-level information in multi-state fault tree quantification[J].Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007,92(10):1476-1483.
[11]Liu X,Li H J,Li L.Building method of diagnostic model of Bayesian networks based on fault tree[C]//Proceedings of the International Society for Optical Engineering.Beijing,2008:71272c-1-71272c-6.
[12]Franke U,Flores W R,Johnson P.Enterprise architecture dependency analysis using fault trees and Bayesian networks[C]//Proceedings of the 42nd Annual Simulation Symposium.San Diego,CA,2009:209-216.