“蓝色”经济战略的“绿色”贡献研究——以“山东半岛蓝色经济区”战略为例
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摘要
区域经济政策的效果评价,尤其是环境效果评价,已经逐渐成为研究热点。而对山东省区域经济发展起到重要促进作用的"山东半岛蓝色经济区"战略在其战略设计中包含着绿色可持续发展的理念,理论上其能够提高山东省蓝色经济区的环保水平。文章为得到对该战略净效应的无偏估计,采用了既能排除其他因素的影响、又能剔除实验前蓝色经济区内外系统性差异的双倍差分法,以2006-2016年山东省17个地级市的面板数据为样本,实证研究了"山东半岛蓝色经济区"战略实施后对环境可持续发展的"绿色"贡献,探讨了区域经济政策后评价的分析方法。研究发现:"山东半岛蓝色经济区"战略的"绿色贡献"是负面的,究其原因,是"蓝色"经济战略的实施忽略了节能减排的"绿色"目标,致使优化能源消费结构、加大对传统高耗能行业的技术改造力度和全面推进绿色设计与制造的节能减排措施落实不当。进而,为推进区域经济政策的效果评价以及落实"山东半岛蓝色经济区"战略的可持续发展提出了建议。
The evaluation of the effects of regional economic policy,especially the evaluation of environmental effects,has gradually become a hot topic.The strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone",which plays an important role in promoting regional economic development of Shandong province,contains the concept of green sustainable development in its strategic design.In theory,it can improve the environmental protection level of Shandong Blue Economic Zone.In order to obtain the unbiased estimation of the net effect of the strategy,this paper,by applying a difference-in-difference(DID)method,which can not only eliminate the influences of other factors,but also eliminate the systemic differences inside and outside the blue economic zone before the experiment,and taking the panel data of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong province from 2006 to 2016as samples,empirically studies the"green"contribution of the strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone"to environmental sustainable development,and explores the analytical method of post-evaluation of regional economic policies.The study finds that the"green"contribution of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone"strategy is negative,and the reason is that the implementation of the"blue"economic strategy ignores the"green"goal of energy conservation and emission reduction,resulting in improper implementation of energy saving and emission reduction measures to optimize energy consumption structure,strengthen the technological transformation of traditional energy-consuming industries and comprehensively promote green design and manufacturing.Furthermore,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the evaluation of the effects of regional economic policy and the sustainable development of the strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone".
The evaluation of the effects of regional economic policy,especially the evaluation of environmental effects,has gradually become a hot topic.The strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone",which plays an important role in promoting regional economic development of Shandong province,contains the concept of green sustainable development in its strategic design.In theory,it can improve the environmental protection level of Shandong Blue Economic Zone.In order to obtain the unbiased estimation of the net effect of the strategy,this paper,by applying a difference-in-difference(DID)method,which can not only eliminate the influences of other factors,but also eliminate the systemic differences inside and outside the blue economic zone before the experiment,and taking the panel data of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong province from 2006 to 2016as samples,empirically studies the"green"contribution of the strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone"to environmental sustainable development,and explores the analytical method of post-evaluation of regional economic policies.The study finds that the"green"contribution of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone"strategy is negative,and the reason is that the implementation of the"blue"economic strategy ignores the"green"goal of energy conservation and emission reduction,resulting in improper implementation of energy saving and emission reduction measures to optimize energy consumption structure,strengthen the technological transformation of traditional energy-consuming industries and comprehensively promote green design and manufacturing.Furthermore,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the evaluation of the effects of regional economic policy and the sustainable development of the strategy of"Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone".
引文
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[13]曹洪华,王荣成,李琳.基于DID模型的洱海流域生态农业政策效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):157-162.
[14]李静,杨娜,陶璐.跨境河流污染的“边界效应”与减排政策效果研究——基于重点断面水质监测周数据的检验[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):31-43.
[15]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱——基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.
[16]丁肇启,萧鸣政.省管县新模式“全面直管”改革政策效果分析——基于河南省的研究[J].公共管理学报,2017(2):14-25.
[17]ORLEY A,DAVID C. Using the Longitudinal Structureof Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985,67(4):648-660.
[18]赵静.失业保险与就业促进——基于基金支出范围视角的双重差分法分析[J].中国经济问题,2014(1):81-90.
[19]王金南,逯元堂,周劲松,等.基于GDP的中国资源环境基尼系数分析[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(1):111-115.
[20]张可,汪东芳.经济集聚与环境污染的交互影响及空间溢出[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):70-82.
[21]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
[22]余长林,高宏建.环境管制对中国环境污染的影响——基于隐性经济的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(7):21-35.
[23]BIRGIT F,MICHAEL G. Determinants of CO2Emissionsin a Small Open Economy[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,45(1):133-148.
[24]VALERAY C,MASSIMILIANO M,ANNA M. Environmen-tal Performance,Innovation and Spillovers. Evidence froma Regional NAMEA[J]. Ecological Economics,2013,89(4):101-114.
[25]宋马林,王舒鸿.环境规制、技术进步与经济增长[J].经济研究,2013(3):122-134.
[26]李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究,2011(11):60-72.
[27]张可,汪东芳,周海燕.地区间环保投入与污染排放的内生策略互动[J].中国工业经济,2016(2):68-82.
[28]JIE H. Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Im-pacts of Foreign Direct Investment:the Case of IndustrialEmission of Sulfur Dioxide(SO2)in Chinese Provinces[J].Ecological Economics,2006,60(1):228-245.
[29]卢进勇,杨杰,邵海燕.外商直接投资、人力资本与中国环境污染——基于249个城市数据的分位数回归分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(4):118-125.
[30]毛捷,汪德华,白重恩.民族地区转移支付、公共支出差异与经济发展差距[J].经济研究,2011(S2):75-872.
[2]JANE L. The Blue Economy:Understanding the Ocean’sRole in the Nation’s Future[EB/OL].(2009-06-09)[2017-12-27]. http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/reporl-2009/education.html.
[3]王金南,李勇,曹东.关于地区绿色距离和绿色贡献的变迁分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(6):3-7.
[4]高艳,李剑.发展海洋循环经济,走可持续发展之路[J].东岳论丛,2005,26(5):66-68.
[5]张可云.区域经济政策[M].北京:商务印书馆,2005:369-381.
[6]XVI D G. The New Programming Period 2000–2006:Method-ological Working Papers[R]. Brussel:Regional Policy andCohesion,1999.
[7]EUROPEAN C. Evaluating EU activities:a practical guidefor the commission services[R]. Bruxelles,2003.
[8]JOSEPH E S. Information and the Change in the Paradigmin Economics[J]. American Economic Review,2004,92(3):460-501.
[9]HARVEY A,JIM T. Regional Economics and Policy[M]. Lon-don:phlip Allan Publishers,1985:139-140.
[10]张可云.区域政策项目评价的基本问题与分析框架[J].地域研究与开发,2006,25(2):14-19.
[11]YAN X,YAN L,YAO X L,et al. The Marine IndustrialCompetitiveness of Blue Economic Regions in China[J].Marine Policy,2015(62):153-160.
[12]董会忠,吴朋,丛旭辉,等.区域生态安全评价与预警研究——以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例[J].软科学,2016,30(9):56-61.
[13]曹洪华,王荣成,李琳.基于DID模型的洱海流域生态农业政策效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):157-162.
[14]李静,杨娜,陶璐.跨境河流污染的“边界效应”与减排政策效果研究——基于重点断面水质监测周数据的检验[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):31-43.
[15]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱——基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.
[16]丁肇启,萧鸣政.省管县新模式“全面直管”改革政策效果分析——基于河南省的研究[J].公共管理学报,2017(2):14-25.
[17]ORLEY A,DAVID C. Using the Longitudinal Structureof Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985,67(4):648-660.
[18]赵静.失业保险与就业促进——基于基金支出范围视角的双重差分法分析[J].中国经济问题,2014(1):81-90.
[19]王金南,逯元堂,周劲松,等.基于GDP的中国资源环境基尼系数分析[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(1):111-115.
[20]张可,汪东芳.经济集聚与环境污染的交互影响及空间溢出[J].中国工业经济,2014(6):70-82.
[21]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
[22]余长林,高宏建.环境管制对中国环境污染的影响——基于隐性经济的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(7):21-35.
[23]BIRGIT F,MICHAEL G. Determinants of CO2Emissionsin a Small Open Economy[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,45(1):133-148.
[24]VALERAY C,MASSIMILIANO M,ANNA M. Environmen-tal Performance,Innovation and Spillovers. Evidence froma Regional NAMEA[J]. Ecological Economics,2013,89(4):101-114.
[25]宋马林,王舒鸿.环境规制、技术进步与经济增长[J].经济研究,2013(3):122-134.
[26]李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究,2011(11):60-72.
[27]张可,汪东芳,周海燕.地区间环保投入与污染排放的内生策略互动[J].中国工业经济,2016(2):68-82.
[28]JIE H. Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Im-pacts of Foreign Direct Investment:the Case of IndustrialEmission of Sulfur Dioxide(SO2)in Chinese Provinces[J].Ecological Economics,2006,60(1):228-245.
[29]卢进勇,杨杰,邵海燕.外商直接投资、人力资本与中国环境污染——基于249个城市数据的分位数回归分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(4):118-125.
[30]毛捷,汪德华,白重恩.民族地区转移支付、公共支出差异与经济发展差距[J].经济研究,2011(S2):75-872.