城镇景观格局对区域碳排放影响及其差别化管控研究
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摘要
建设低碳城市作为可持续发展的重要议题在国内外受到广泛关注,开展城镇景观格局对区域CO_2排放影响及其差别化管制研究对建设低碳城市尤为重要。当前我国缺乏完整的、可信度高的CO_2排放基础数据,地级市尺度上的CO_2排放时空特征及其驱动机制研究非常匮乏。论文基于CHRED数据库的2005年和2012年全国281个地级市CO_2排放数据,结合相应年度的土地利用覆被数据,分析全国及区域(东部、中部、西部)城镇景观格局及其CO_2排放的区域特征,从结构(城镇用地比例)和布局(斑块密度、最大斑块指数、平均最近距离)两方面,实证检验城镇景观格局对区域CO_2排放的影响,最后提出基于碳减排的区域差别化管制政策。研究表明:(1)城镇用地占比、斑块密度、集聚性在空间上呈现出"东高西低"的特征;除了西部地区的集聚性呈缩小趋势外,其他指标均呈现出扩大趋势。(2)西部地区城镇用地占比与地均CO_2排放呈正相关性;中部地区城镇用地平均最近距离与地均CO_2排放呈负相关性;东部、中部地区最大斑块指数与地均CO_2排放呈正相关性。不同区域的城镇景观格局对CO_2排放的影响机制不同,因而应当对城市发展实施差别化管控:东部地区应采取"多核心"的城市发展策略以降低区域CO_2排放水平;中部地区在采用"多核心"的发展策略的同时要兼顾集聚性,发挥其集聚效应;西部地区要显化其全国的生态屏障功能,更加严格地控制建设用地面积,避免城市无序扩张。
The construction of‘Low-carbon Cities',as an important issue of sustainable development,has received extensive attention at home and abroad. The impact of urban landscape pattern on regional carbon emission and differential regulation are particularly important for the construction of ‘Low-carbon Cities'. At present,the study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emission and its driving mechanism is very scarce because of lacking complete and credible carbon emission data in China. Based on the carbon emission data of 281 prefecture-level cities in 2005 and 2012,the paper analyzed the regional characteristics of the urban landscape pattern and the carbon emission in the whole country,eastern China,central China and western China,respectively. The CHRED database is employed. From the perspective of structure( urban land ratio) and layout( urban land patches density,maximum urban land patch index,the average nearest-neighbor distance for urban land patches),empirical test of the impact of urban landscape pattern on regional carbon emissions was conducted. Finally,regional differential regulation policies were proposed based on ‘carbon emission reduction'. The results showed that: First,urban land-use ratio,patch density,agglomeration of urban land showed the‘East High-West Low'characteristics. In addition to the narrowing trend of agglomeration in the western region,the other indicators showed a widening trend. Second,positive correlation was found between urban land-use ratio and carbon emission in the western region. Negative correlation was found between average recent distance and carbon emission in central China. The maximum patch indexes of the eastern and central regions were positively correlated with carbon emission. Different urban landscape patterns had different influence on carbon emission; therefore,differential regulation should be carried out: Eastern China should take the multi-core strategy for urban development to reduce the carbon emission intensity. Central China should display the accumulative effect combined with the multi-core strategy. While western China should restrict the scale of built-up land to avoid unlimited urban sprawl and strengthen the ecological function. The results of regional carbon emission mechanism provided reference for the establishment of regional differential regulation based on carbon emission reduction.
The construction of‘Low-carbon Cities',as an important issue of sustainable development,has received extensive attention at home and abroad. The impact of urban landscape pattern on regional carbon emission and differential regulation are particularly important for the construction of ‘Low-carbon Cities'. At present,the study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emission and its driving mechanism is very scarce because of lacking complete and credible carbon emission data in China. Based on the carbon emission data of 281 prefecture-level cities in 2005 and 2012,the paper analyzed the regional characteristics of the urban landscape pattern and the carbon emission in the whole country,eastern China,central China and western China,respectively. The CHRED database is employed. From the perspective of structure( urban land ratio) and layout( urban land patches density,maximum urban land patch index,the average nearest-neighbor distance for urban land patches),empirical test of the impact of urban landscape pattern on regional carbon emissions was conducted. Finally,regional differential regulation policies were proposed based on ‘carbon emission reduction'. The results showed that: First,urban land-use ratio,patch density,agglomeration of urban land showed the‘East High-West Low'characteristics. In addition to the narrowing trend of agglomeration in the western region,the other indicators showed a widening trend. Second,positive correlation was found between urban land-use ratio and carbon emission in the western region. Negative correlation was found between average recent distance and carbon emission in central China. The maximum patch indexes of the eastern and central regions were positively correlated with carbon emission. Different urban landscape patterns had different influence on carbon emission; therefore,differential regulation should be carried out: Eastern China should take the multi-core strategy for urban development to reduce the carbon emission intensity. Central China should display the accumulative effect combined with the multi-core strategy. While western China should restrict the scale of built-up land to avoid unlimited urban sprawl and strengthen the ecological function. The results of regional carbon emission mechanism provided reference for the establishment of regional differential regulation based on carbon emission reduction.
引文
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[17]邬建国.景观生态学:格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.[WU Jianguo.Landscape ecology:pattern,process,scale and hierarchy[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000.]
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[21]ZHOUW,HUANG G,CADENASSO ML,Does spatial configuration matter?understanding the effects of land cover pattern on land surface temperature in urban landscapes[J].Landscape and urban planning,2011,102(1):54-63.
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[23]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):98-102.[ZHU Qin,PENG Xizhe,LU Zhiming,et al.Analysis model and empirical study of impacts from population and consumption on carbon emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(2):98-102.]
[24]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.[ZHANGTengfei,YANG Jun,SHENG Pengfei.The impacts and channels of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2016,26(2):47-57.]
[2]OLIVIER J G J,JANSSENS-MAENHOUT G,MUNTEAN M,et al.Trends in global CO2emissions:2014 report[R].Hague:PBLNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,2014.
[3]LANTZ V,FENG Q.Assessing income,population,and technology impacts on CO2emissions in Canada:where’s the EKC?[J].Ecological economics,2006,57(2):229-238.
[4]ANG B W,PANDIYAN G.Decomposition of energy-induced CO2emissions in manufacturing[J].Energy economics,1997,19(3):363-374.
[5]王喜,张艳,秦耀辰,等.我国碳排放变化影响因素的时空分异与调控[J].经济地理,2016,36(8):158-165.[WANG Xi,ZHANG Yan,QIN Yaochen,et al.The spatial-temporal differentiation of the influence factors of carbon emissions and the regulation[J].Economic geography,2016,36(8):158-165.]
[6]李丹丹,刘锐,陈动.中国省域碳排放及其驱动因子的时空异质性研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(7):84-92.[LIDandan,LIU Rui,CHEN Dong.Research on space-time heterogeneity of carbon emission and influencing factors in provinces of China[J].China population,resources and environment,2013,23(7):84-92.]
[7]颜艳梅,王铮,吴乐英,等.中国碳排放强度影响因素对区域差异的作用分析[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(9):3436-3444.[YAN Yanmei,WANG Zheng,WU Leying,et al.Analysis of the determinants of carbon emission intensity on regional differences[J].Acta scientiae circumstantiae,2016(9):3436-3444.]
[8]黄蕊,王铮,丁冠群,等.基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):781-789.[HUANG Rui,WANG Zheng,DING Guanqun,et al.Trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province based on STIRPAT Model[J].Geographical research,2016,35(4):781-789.]
[9]JIA J.Measurement of impacts of construction land expansion on carbon emissions in Hubei Province[R].Wuhan:Department of Mechatronics Engineering,Wuhan Business University,2016.
[10]张思齐,陈银蓉.城市建设用地扩张与能源消耗碳排放相关效应[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):244-249.[ZHANGSiqi,CHEN Yinrong.Correlation effect of city construction land expansion and energy consumption carbon emission[J].Research of soil and water conservation,2017,24(1):244-249.]
[11]佘倩楠,贾文晓,潘晨,等.长三角地区城市形态对区域碳排放影响的时空分异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(11):44-51.[SHE Qiannan,JIA Wenxiao,PAN Chen,et al.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban forms’impact on regional carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta[J].China population,resources and environment,2015,25(11):44-51.]
[12]EWING R,RONG F.The impact of urban form on U.S.residential energy use[J].Housing policy debate,2008,19:1-30.
[13]HAN F,XIE R,LU Y,et al.The effects of urban agglomeration economies on carbon emissions:evidence from Chinese cities[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,172:1096-1110.
[14]OU J,LIU X,LI X,et al.Quantifying the relationship between urban forms and carbon emissions using panel data analysis[J].Landscape ecology,2013,28(10):1889-1907.
[15]陈珍启,林雄斌,李莉,等.城市空间形态影响碳排放吗?---基于全国110个地级市数据的分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(10):22-26.[CHEN Zhenqi,LIN Xiongbin,LI Li,et al.Does urban spatial morphology affect carbon emission?:a study based on110 prefectural cities[J].Ecological economy,2016,32(10):22-26.]
[16]高金龙,陈江龙,苏曦.中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):743-754.[GAOJinlong,CHEN Jianglong,SU Xi.Urban expansion and its driving mechanism in China:from three main shools’perspectives[J].Progress in geography,2013,32(5):743-754.]
[17]邬建国.景观生态学:格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.[WU Jianguo.Landscape ecology:pattern,process,scale and hierarchy[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000.]
[18]ALBERTI M,WADDELL P.An integrated urban development and ecological simulation model[J].Integrated assessment,2000,1(3):215-227.
[19]WUW,ZHAO S,ZHU C,et al.A comparative study of urban expansion in Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang over the past three decades[J].Landscape and urban planning,2015,134:93-106.
[20]SUN Y,ZHAO S,QU W.Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in three capital cities in Northeast China over the past three decades using satellite data sets[J].Environmental earth sciences,2015,73(11):7221-7235.
[21]ZHOUW,HUANG G,CADENASSO ML,Does spatial configuration matter?understanding the effects of land cover pattern on land surface temperature in urban landscapes[J].Landscape and urban planning,2011,102(1):54-63.
[22]蔡博峰,王金南,杨姝影,等.中国城市CO2排放数据集研究---基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(2):1-4.[CAI Bofeng,WANG Jinnan,YANGShuying,et al.China city CO2emission dataset:based on the China high resolution emission gridded data[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(2):1-4.]
[23]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,等.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):98-102.[ZHU Qin,PENG Xizhe,LU Zhiming,et al.Analysis model and empirical study of impacts from population and consumption on carbon emissions[J].China population,resources and environment,2010,20(2):98-102.]
[24]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.[ZHANGTengfei,YANG Jun,SHENG Pengfei.The impacts and channels of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2016,26(2):47-57.]