热带气旋的体积及与强度关系的研究
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摘要
热带气旋(TC)的结构(含形态)与强度及其变化关系密切,著名的Dvorak定强技术即为TC形态(水平)变化与强度关系的生动描述,近年来水平尺度与强度变化的关系也渐受关注。然而,至今未涉及整体形态(即体积)与TC强度变化的关系。利用欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)0.25°的ERA-Interim再分析资料,统计并初步分析了2006—2015年西北太平洋TC的外围水平尺度和"体积"的特征及其与强度的可能关系:水平尺度与TC强度的相关性总体较弱;而TC"体积"与强度的相关性更显著,且TC"体积"随强度增强而增大的关系适用于所有强度级别;此外,TC垂直尺度(正涡度区伸展高度)与强度也有一定的正相关,且在TC较弱时(台风强度以下)更显著。伴随较弱TC增强的主要是垂直尺度的增大,当TC达到台风强度后,与TC强度继续增强相伴随的主要是水平尺度的增大。TC"体积"能较好地综合表征水平尺度和垂直尺度与TC强度变化的关系,借助TC"体积"对TC强度预报有一定的参考价值。
The tropical cyclone(TC) structure(including shape) is closely related to the TC intensity and intensity change. The famous Dvorak technique is just one of the techniques that describe the relationship between TC horizontal shape and intensity. Recently, the relationship between horizontal size and intensity has been paid more and more attention to. However, the overall shape(volume) of TC and its relationship with TC intensity has not been addressed so far. Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees, the characteristics of the horizontal size(R) and "volume"of TC in the Northwest Pacific during2006—2015 and their relationships with TC intensity were statistically analyzed. The results show that the correlation between the R and TC intensity is generally weak. While the correlation between TC"volume"and TC intensity is relatively significant, the "volume" increases with TC intensification, and this relationship applies to all intensity levels. In addition, the TC vertical size(extended height of positive vorticity) also has a significant correlation with TC intensity, which is more significant when TC is relatively weaker(below the level of typhoon). This suggests that the weak TC enhancement mainly accompanies with the increase in vertical size. When TC intensity reaches the level of typhoon, further intensification of TC mainly accompanies with increase in horizontal size. The TC "volume"can better characterize the correlation between horizontal size, vertical size and TC intensity. It has certain reference value for intensity forecast.
The tropical cyclone(TC) structure(including shape) is closely related to the TC intensity and intensity change. The famous Dvorak technique is just one of the techniques that describe the relationship between TC horizontal shape and intensity. Recently, the relationship between horizontal size and intensity has been paid more and more attention to. However, the overall shape(volume) of TC and its relationship with TC intensity has not been addressed so far. Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees, the characteristics of the horizontal size(R) and "volume"of TC in the Northwest Pacific during2006—2015 and their relationships with TC intensity were statistically analyzed. The results show that the correlation between the R and TC intensity is generally weak. While the correlation between TC"volume"and TC intensity is relatively significant, the "volume" increases with TC intensification, and this relationship applies to all intensity levels. In addition, the TC vertical size(extended height of positive vorticity) also has a significant correlation with TC intensity, which is more significant when TC is relatively weaker(below the level of typhoon). This suggests that the weak TC enhancement mainly accompanies with the increase in vertical size. When TC intensity reaches the level of typhoon, further intensification of TC mainly accompanies with increase in horizontal size. The TC "volume"can better characterize the correlation between horizontal size, vertical size and TC intensity. It has certain reference value for intensity forecast.
引文
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[20] WU L G, TIAN W, LIU Q Y, et al. Implications of the observed relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity over the Western North Pacific[J]. J Clim, 2015, 28(24):9 501-9 506.
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[22] WU L, SU H, FOVELL R G, et al. Relationship of environmental relative humidity with North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification rate[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2012, 39(20):L20809.
[23]陈联寿,丁一汇.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:42-43.
[24] DEE D, UPPALA S, SIMMONS A J, et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Q J R Meteor Soc, 2011, 137(656):553-597.
[25] DITCHEK S D, MOLINARI J, VOLLARO D. Tropical cyclone outflow layer structure and balanced response to eddy forcings[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2016, 74(1):133-149.
[26] LIU K S, CHAN J C L. Size of tropical cyclones as inferred from ERS-1 and ERS-2 data[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1999, 127(12):2 992-3 001.
[27] WANG Z. Characteristics of convective processes and vertical vorticity from the tropical wave to tropical cyclone stage in a high-resolution numerical model simulation of tropical cyclone Fay(2008)[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2014, 71(3):896-915.
[28] WEATHERFORD C L, GRAY W M. Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part I:Data analysis and climatology[J].Mon Wea Rev, 1988, 116(5):1 032-1 043.
[29] CARR L E, ELSBERRY R L. Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1997, 125(12):3 190-3 209.
[30]李英,陈联寿,雷小途.高空槽对9711号台风变性加强影响的数值研究[J].气象学报,2006,64(5):552-563.
[2]陈国民,白莉娜,万日金. 2015年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,2017,43(4):501-507.
[3] WANG Y Q,WU C C. Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes-a review[J]. Meteor Atmos Phys,2004,87(4):257-278.
[4]陈光华,裘国庆.热带气旋强度与结构研究新进展[J].气象科技,2005,33(1):1-6.
[5]端义宏,余晖,伍荣生.热带气旋强度变化研究进展[J].气象学报,2005,63(5):636-645.
[6]胡姝,孙立尹,李英.热带气旋结构和强度变化研究进展[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(4):91-98.
[7] HOLLAND G J, MERRILL R. On the dynamics of tropical cyclone structural changes[J]. Q J R Meteor Soc, 1984, 110(465):723-745.
[8] IMAN R L, JOHNSON M E, WATSON C C. Sensitivity analysis for computer model projections of hurricane losses[J]. Risk Anal, 2005,25(5):1 277-1 297.
[9] KNAFF J A, SAMPSON C R. After a decade are Atlantic tropical cyclone gale force wind radii forecasts now skillful[J]. Wea Forecasting,2015, 30(3):702-709.
[10] KIMBALL S K, DOUGHERTY F C. The sensitivity of idealized hurricane structure and development to the distribution of vertical levels in MM5[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2006, 134(7):1 987-2 008.
[11] HILL K A, LACKMAN G M. Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2009, 137(10):3 294-3 315.
[12] XU J, WANG Y Q. Sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone inner-core size to the initial vortex size[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2010, 138(11):4 135-4 157.
[13] KIMBALL S K, MULEKAR M S. A 15-year climatology of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Part I:Size parameters[J]. J Clim, 2004, 17(18):3 555-3 575.
[14] LU X Q, YU H, LEI X T. Statistics for size and radial wind profile of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2011, 25(1):104-112.
[15] YUAN J N, WANG D X, WAN Q L, et al. A 28-year climatological analysis of size parameters for Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2007, 24(1):24-34.
[16]吴联要,雷小途.内核及外围尺度与热带气旋强度关系的初步研究[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(5):719-725.
[17] MERRILL R. A comparison of large and small tropical cyclones[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1984, 112(7):1 408-1 418.
[18] WEATHERFORD C L, GRAY W M. Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part II:Structural variability[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1988b, 116(5):1 044-1 056.
[19] CHAN K T F, CHAN J C L. Size and strength of tropical cyclones as inferred from Quik SCAT data[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2012, 140(3):811-824.
[20] WU L G, TIAN W, LIU Q Y, et al. Implications of the observed relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity over the Western North Pacific[J]. J Clim, 2015, 28(24):9 501-9 506.
[21] BRAUN S A, SIPPEL J A, NOLAN D. The impact of dry midlevel air on hurricane intensity in idealized simulations with no mean flow[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2012, 69(1):236-257.
[22] WU L, SU H, FOVELL R G, et al. Relationship of environmental relative humidity with North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification rate[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2012, 39(20):L20809.
[23]陈联寿,丁一汇.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:42-43.
[24] DEE D, UPPALA S, SIMMONS A J, et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Q J R Meteor Soc, 2011, 137(656):553-597.
[25] DITCHEK S D, MOLINARI J, VOLLARO D. Tropical cyclone outflow layer structure and balanced response to eddy forcings[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2016, 74(1):133-149.
[26] LIU K S, CHAN J C L. Size of tropical cyclones as inferred from ERS-1 and ERS-2 data[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1999, 127(12):2 992-3 001.
[27] WANG Z. Characteristics of convective processes and vertical vorticity from the tropical wave to tropical cyclone stage in a high-resolution numerical model simulation of tropical cyclone Fay(2008)[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2014, 71(3):896-915.
[28] WEATHERFORD C L, GRAY W M. Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part I:Data analysis and climatology[J].Mon Wea Rev, 1988, 116(5):1 032-1 043.
[29] CARR L E, ELSBERRY R L. Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1997, 125(12):3 190-3 209.
[30]李英,陈联寿,雷小途.高空槽对9711号台风变性加强影响的数值研究[J].气象学报,2006,64(5):552-563.