台风“鲇鱼”强降水引发的地质灾害气象风险预警检验与分析
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摘要
2016年9月28日,台风"鲇鱼"造成的强降水在浙江和福建引发多起地质灾害,造成严重人员伤亡和财产损失。利用中国气象局气象灾害管理系统和中国地质环境监测院提供的灾情资料,结合加密自动站降水观测、多源降水预报、承灾体脆弱性和暴露度等信息分析致灾因子,定量检验中央气象台地质灾害气象风险模型性能,并对格点化定量降水预报产品使用进行了讨论。结果表明:降水是本次地质灾害过程的主要致灾因子;国家级地质灾害气象风险预警产品命中率和漏报率分别为67.8%和11.1%,各项定量检验指标均优于客观模型;第二代中央气象台地质灾害气象风险模型预报命中率高于第一代模型的原因可能是其引入了高分辨率的地理学信息,第一代模型在地质灾害易发区出现特大暴雨时,有直接预报最高风险等级的缺陷,此外两代模型均存在明显空报现象;格点化定量降水预报产品能定点、定量地预报降水,相比主观降水等级落区预报更适用于地质灾害气象风险预警业务,但使用时需要注意其可能在一些地形复杂区域存在局限性。本检验结果只是针对一次台风过程得出的,还需要更多的个例分析和统计检验以确定结论是否具有普遍规律。
"MEGI", the No.17 typhoon in 2016, generated many geological hazards(geo-hazards) in Fujian and Zhejiang Provinces and caused many death and property loss on 28 th September. Based on hazard data from hazard management system of China Meteorological Administration and China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring, and combined the precipitation observation, precipitation forecast from many sources, hazard-affected body fragility and exposure degree, this study made analysis to the geo-hazards generation factor, verified in quantitative to the warning effect of Geo-hazards model of National Meteorological Centre(NMC), and summarized the experience of gridded quantitative precipitation forecast using. Result shows that, Precipitation was the main cause of geo-hazards. national meteorological early warning of geological Hazards' hit and miss rate were 67.8% and 11.1%, which were better than model. The hit rate of second generation model better than the first might because of using geological information in high resolution, the first and second generation model had the problem of false alarm, the first generation of geo-hazards model of NMC had the problem of forecasting highest level risk at places with high risk of geological Hazard in condition of had or will have extraordinary rainstorm. Gridded quantitative precipitation forecast had the advantage of higher resolution and could make quantitative precipitation forecasting in given place than rank precipitation forecast made by forecaster,which were more suitable for meteorological early warning of geo-hazards, but attentions should be paid to the defect of forecasting ability in places such as terrain complex area. Conclusions were based on typhoon "MEGI", more analysis and verification are needed to testify whether the result was regularity in future.
"MEGI", the No.17 typhoon in 2016, generated many geological hazards(geo-hazards) in Fujian and Zhejiang Provinces and caused many death and property loss on 28 th September. Based on hazard data from hazard management system of China Meteorological Administration and China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring, and combined the precipitation observation, precipitation forecast from many sources, hazard-affected body fragility and exposure degree, this study made analysis to the geo-hazards generation factor, verified in quantitative to the warning effect of Geo-hazards model of National Meteorological Centre(NMC), and summarized the experience of gridded quantitative precipitation forecast using. Result shows that, Precipitation was the main cause of geo-hazards. national meteorological early warning of geological Hazards' hit and miss rate were 67.8% and 11.1%, which were better than model. The hit rate of second generation model better than the first might because of using geological information in high resolution, the first and second generation model had the problem of false alarm, the first generation of geo-hazards model of NMC had the problem of forecasting highest level risk at places with high risk of geological Hazard in condition of had or will have extraordinary rainstorm. Gridded quantitative precipitation forecast had the advantage of higher resolution and could make quantitative precipitation forecasting in given place than rank precipitation forecast made by forecaster,which were more suitable for meteorological early warning of geo-hazards, but attentions should be paid to the defect of forecasting ability in places such as terrain complex area. Conclusions were based on typhoon "MEGI", more analysis and verification are needed to testify whether the result was regularity in future.
引文
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徐晶,张国平,张芳华,等.2007.基于Logistic回归的区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型[J].气象,12(33):3-8
薛建军,徐晶,牛若芸,等.2007.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究[J].气象,10(31):24-27
姚学祥,徐晶,薛建军,等.2005.基于降水量的全国地质灾害潜势预报模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,4(16):97-102
詹钱登,李明喜.2004.土石流发生降雨警戒模式[J].中华水土保持学报,35(3):275-285
章达华,沈永生,刘建国,等.2011.三明市前汛期地质灾害与强降水的关系及其预报[J].暴雨灾害,30(2):182-187
郑孝玉.2000.滑坡预报研究方法综述[J].世界地质,19(4):370-374
Au S W.1998.Rain-induced slop instability in Hong Kong[J].Engineering Geology,51(1):1-36
Caine.N.1980.The Rainfall Intensity-Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows[J].Geografiska Annaler,62(1):23-27
Cannon S H,Ellen S D.1985.Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches,San Francisco Bay region,California[J].California Geology,38(12):267-272
Glade T,Crozier M,Smith P.2000.Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,157(2):1 059-1 079
范正成,吴明峰.2001.一级溪流土石流危险因子及其与临界降水线之关系[J].中华水土保持学报,32(3):227-234
何永金.1995.福建省主要地质灾害的特点、成因及其对策[J].福建地质,4:263-271
刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.2015.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学,23(4):738-746
李媛,孟晖,董颖,等.2004.中国地质灾害类型及其特征-基于全国市县地质灾害调查成果分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,15(2):90-97
林孝松.2001.滑坡与降雨研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,12(3):2-7
刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.2015.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):1-7
柳源.1998.滑坡临界暴雨强度[J].水文地质工程地质,(3):43-45
罗元华.1994.我国滑坡泥石流崩塌灾害分布与经济损失评估[J].国土开发与整治,4(1):49-55
谭万沛.1991.降雨泥石流的临界雨量研究[C]//第二届全国泥石流学术会议论文集.北京:科学出版社:136-142
谭万沛,王成华,姚令侃,等.1994.暴雨泥石流滑坡的区域预测与预报[M].成都:四川科技出版社:205-274
网干寿夫.1972.集中豪雨とっサ土斜面の崩壞[J].施工技术,5(11):45-49
王一鸣,殷坤龙,龚新法,等.2012.浙东南山区泥石流分布规律[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2(23):11-16
魏丽,郑有飞,单九生.2005.暴雨型滑坡灾害预报预警方法研究评述[J].气象,31(10):3-6
吴积善,康志成,田连权,等.1990.云南蒋家沟泥石流观测研究[M].北京:科学出版社:101-106
徐晶,江玉红,韦方强,等.2008.我国登陆台风影响区地质灾害易发性分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,4(19):61-66
徐晶,张国平,张芳华,等.2007.基于Logistic回归的区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型[J].气象,12(33):3-8
薛建军,徐晶,牛若芸,等.2007.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究[J].气象,10(31):24-27
姚学祥,徐晶,薛建军,等.2005.基于降水量的全国地质灾害潜势预报模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,4(16):97-102
詹钱登,李明喜.2004.土石流发生降雨警戒模式[J].中华水土保持学报,35(3):275-285
章达华,沈永生,刘建国,等.2011.三明市前汛期地质灾害与强降水的关系及其预报[J].暴雨灾害,30(2):182-187
郑孝玉.2000.滑坡预报研究方法综述[J].世界地质,19(4):370-374
Au S W.1998.Rain-induced slop instability in Hong Kong[J].Engineering Geology,51(1):1-36
Caine.N.1980.The Rainfall Intensity-Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows[J].Geografiska Annaler,62(1):23-27
Cannon S H,Ellen S D.1985.Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches,San Francisco Bay region,California[J].California Geology,38(12):267-272
Glade T,Crozier M,Smith P.2000.Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,157(2):1 059-1 079