三江源区生态承载力与生态安全评价及限制因素分析
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摘要
三江源区作为国家生态安全"两屏三带"战略格局的重要组成,其生态安全状况对全国乃至东南亚地区都有重要影响。本文以遥感参数反演和模型计算数据,结合实地调查和社会经济统计等数据,采用层次分析法和指标体系法,对三江源区生态承载力和生态安全状况进行了评价,并根据短板效应分析了限制三江源区生态承载力和生态安全的因素。结果表明:(1)三江源区生态承载力处于中等水平,空间上呈现出由东南向西北逐渐减少的格局;(2)限制三江源区生态承载力的因素主要是水源涵养量、初级生产力、地表水水质、植被覆盖度以及受威胁动物数量等;(3)三江源区生态安全状况基本处于濒危到较安全之间;(4)三江源区西部欠发达地区生态承载力水平较低,相对落后的经济水平限制了环境保护的力度和水平;而东部较发达地区,人口增长快但文化素质不足,难以满足社会经济快速发展与生态安全保护的双重需求。
The Sanjiangyuan Region is an important component of the national ecological security strategic structure-"Two Screens &Three Zones"-in China,and its ecological security situation has a significant impact on China and even the region of Southeast Asia.Combined with information from field investigations and socioeconomic statistics,this paper adopts related methods of remote sensing parameter inversion,model simulation as well as the analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive index system to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity and ecological security situation of the Three River Sources Region.The results show:(1)the ecological carrying capacity of the Three River Sources Region is at the medium level and presents a pattern of decreas from southeast to northwest;(2)the major constraint factors on the ecological carrying capacity are water conservation quantity,net primary productivity(NPP),surface water quality,the vegetation coverage and the amount of threatened animals in the Three River Sources Region;(3)the general ecological security of the Three River Sources Region ranges from danger to a relatively safe situation;(4)the ecological carrying capacity is relatively low in the western underdeveloped region where the economic backwardness reduces the degree of local environmental protection effort; and meanwhile,the rapid population growth and the low cultural quality in more developed eastern region also causes conflict between economic development and environmental protection.
The Sanjiangyuan Region is an important component of the national ecological security strategic structure-"Two Screens &Three Zones"-in China,and its ecological security situation has a significant impact on China and even the region of Southeast Asia.Combined with information from field investigations and socioeconomic statistics,this paper adopts related methods of remote sensing parameter inversion,model simulation as well as the analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive index system to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity and ecological security situation of the Three River Sources Region.The results show:(1)the ecological carrying capacity of the Three River Sources Region is at the medium level and presents a pattern of decreas from southeast to northwest;(2)the major constraint factors on the ecological carrying capacity are water conservation quantity,net primary productivity(NPP),surface water quality,the vegetation coverage and the amount of threatened animals in the Three River Sources Region;(3)the general ecological security of the Three River Sources Region ranges from danger to a relatively safe situation;(4)the ecological carrying capacity is relatively low in the western underdeveloped region where the economic backwardness reduces the degree of local environmental protection effort; and meanwhile,the rapid population growth and the low cultural quality in more developed eastern region also causes conflict between economic development and environmental protection.
引文
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Lu S,Li J,Guan X L,Gao X J,Gu Y H,Zhang D H,Mi F,Li D D.2018.The evaluation of forestry ecological security in China:Developing a decision support system. Ecological Indicator,91:664-678.
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Qiao H J,Wang X Y,Wang W,Luo Z H,Tang K,Huang Y,Yang S N,Cao W W,Zhao X Q,Jiang J P,Hu J H.2018.From nature reserve to national park system pilot:changes of environmental coverage in the Three-River-Source National Park and implications for amphibian and reptile conservation.Biodiversity Science,26(2):202-209.(in Chinese)
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Su S,Chen X,Degloria S D,Wu J P.2010.Integrative fuzzy set pair model for land ecological security assessment:a case study of Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region,China.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,24(5):639-647.
Yang F,Shao Q Q,Guo X J,Li Y Z,Wang D L,Zhang Y X,Wang Y C,Liu J Y,Fan J W.2018.Effects of wild large herbivore popula-tions on the grassland-livestock balance in Maduo County.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,27(7):1-13.(in Chinese)
Yang S X.2017.Temporal and spatial dynamics of alpine grassland biomass and grassland livestock balance and its influential factors in the Three River Headwaters Region.Ph.D thesis.Lanzhou:Lanzhou University.(in Chinese)
Zhang H,Xu E.2017a.An evaluation of the ecological and environmental security on China's terrestrial ecosystems.Scientific Reports,7(1).
Zhang L X,Fan J W,Shao Q Q,Tang F P,Zhang H Y,Li Y Z.2014.Change in grassland yield and grazing pressure in the Three Rivers headwater region before and after the implementation of the eco-restoration project Acta Prataculturae Sinica,23(5):116-123.(in Chinese)
Zhang L X,Fan J W,Zhou D,Zhang H Y.2017b.Ecological protection and restoration program reduced grazing pressure in the ThreeRiver Headwaters Region,China Rangeland Ecology&Management,70(5):540-548.
Zhang R,Dai W T,Liu Z S,D J H.2017.Evaluation of land ecological security in Agro-Pastoral zone of Northern China-A case study ofBaicheng city.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,24(2):259-266.(in Chinese)
Zhou H K,Zhao X Q,Zhang C Y,Xing X F,Zhu B W,Du F C.2010.The Predicament of Ecological Migrants and Sustainable Development Strategy in the Source Area of Three Rivers.China Population,Resources and Environment,20(S1):185-188.(in Chinese)
Zhu XL,Li W L,Xue Z Z,Xu D D,Wang H.2012.Evaluation of ecological carrying capacities in Gannan based on PSR model.Pratacultural Science, 29(2):198-203.(in Chinese)
马爱慧,李默,李晓东.2007.基于AHP的新疆土地利用综合承载力研究.云南地理环境研究,(3):114-118.
朱晓丽,李文龙,薛中正,徐丹丹,王浩.2012.基于生态安全的高寒牧区生态承载力评价.草业科学,29(2):198-203.
乔慧捷,汪晓意,王伟,罗振华,唐科,黄燕,杨胜男,曹伟伟,赵新全,江建平,胡军华.2018.从自然保护区到国家公园体制试点:三江源国家公园环境覆盖的变化及其对两栖爬行类保护的启示.生物多样性,26(2):202-209.
刘纪远,徐新良,邵全琴.2008.近30年来青海三江源地区草地退化的时空特征.地理学报,(4):364-376.
刘孝富,邵艳莹,崔书红,王文杰,李元钊,田石强.2015.基于PSFR模型的东江湖流域生态安全评价.长江流域资源与环境,24(S1):197-205.
刘敏超,李迪强,温琰茂,栾晓峰.2005.三江源地区生态系统生态功能分析及其价值评估.环境科学学报,(9):1280-1286.
李欣海,郜二虎,李百度,詹祥江.2019.用物种分布模型和距离抽样估计三江源藏野驴、藏原羚和藏羚羊的数量.中国科学:生命科学,49(2):151-162.
杨帆,邵全琴,郭兴健,李愈哲,王东亮,张雅娴,汪阳春,刘纪远,樊江文.2018.玛多县大型野生食草动物种群数量对草畜平衡的影响研究.草业学报,27(7):1-13.
杨淑霞.2017.三江源地区高寒草地生物量和草畜平衡的时空变化动态及其影响因素研究.兰州:兰州大学博士学位论文.
张良侠,樊江文,邵全琴,唐风沛,张海燕,李愈哲.2014.生态工程前后三江源草地产草量与载畜压力的变化分析.草业学报,23(5):116-123.
张茹,戴文婷,刘兆顺,董霁红.2017.我国北方农牧交错区土地生态安全评价——以白城市为例.水土保持研究,24(2):259-266.
邵全琴,刘纪远,黄麟,樊江文,徐新良,王军邦. 2013.2005-2009年三江源自然保护区生态保护和建设工程生态成效综合评估.地理研究,32(9):1645-1656.
邵全琴,樊江文,等.2012.三江源区生态系统综合监测与评估.北京:科学出版社.
周华坤,赵新全,张超远,邢小方,朱宝文,杜发春.2010.三江源区生态移民的困境与可持续发展策略.中国人口·资源与环境,20(S1):185-188.
徐新良.2017a.中国GDP空间分布公里网格数据集.中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统.(http://www.resdc.cn/DOI),DOI:10.12078/2017121102.
徐新良.2017b.中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集.中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统(http://www.resdc.cn/DOI),DOI:10.12078/2017121101.
凌红波,徐海量,乔木,史薇.2010.基于AHP和模糊综合评判的玛纳斯河流域水资源安全评价.中国沙漠,30(4):989-994.
高雅灵,林慧龙,周祯莹,魏祎梅.2019.三江源地区可持续发展的生态足迹.草业科学,36(1):11-19.
黄青,任志远.2004.论生态承载力与生态安全.干旱区资源与环境,(2):11-17.
蔡振媛,覃雯,高红梅,吴彤,迟翔文,杨俊东,苗紫燕,张婧捷,宋鹏飞,连新明,苏建平,张同作.2018.三江源国家公园兽类物种多样性及区系分析.兽类学报,DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150215.
樊江文,邵全琴,王军邦,陈卓奇,钟华平.2011.三江源草地载畜压力时空动态分析.中国草地学报,33(3):64-72.
Cai Z Y,Qin W,Gao H M,Wu T,Chi X W,Yang J D,Miao Z Y,Zhang J J,Song P F,Lian X M,Su J P,Zhang T Z.2018.Species diversity and fauna of mammals in Sanjiangyuan National Park.Acta Theriologica Sinica,DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150215
Fan J W,Shao Q Q,Wang J B,Chen Z Q,Zhong H P.2011.An analysis of temporal-spatial dynamics of grazing pressure on grassland in Three Rivers Headwater Region.Chinese Journal of Grassland, 33(3):64-77.(in Chinese)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,Land and Water Development Division.1997.Land Quality Indicators and Their Use in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development. Michigan:Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Gao Y Z,Lin H L,Zhou Z Y,Wei W M.2019.Analysis on ecological footprint of sustainable development in Sanjiangyuan Region.Pratacultural Science,36(1):11-19.(in Chinese)
Huang Q,Ren Z Y.2004.Ecological carrying capacity and ecologicalsecurity.Journal of Arid Land Resources and E,nvironment,(2):11-17.(in Chinese)
Li X H,Gao E Q,Li B D,Zhan X J.2019.Estimating abundance of Tibetan wild ass,Tibetan gazelle and Tibetan antelope using species distribution model and distance sampling.Scientia Sinica(Vitae),49(2):151-162.(in Chinese)
Ling H B,Xu H L,Qiao M.2010.Appraisement of water resource security in manasi river basin by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Journal of Desert Research,30(4):989-994.(in Chinese)
Liu J Y,Xu X L,Shao Q Q.2008.The spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the Three-River Headwaters Region in Qinghai Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,(4):364-376.(in Chinese)
Liu M C,Li D Q,Wen Y M,Luan X F.2005.The ecological function analysis and evaluation of ecosystem in Sanjiangyuan region.Acta Scientiae Circumstcantiae,(9):1280-1286.(in Chinese)
Liu X F,Shao Y Y,Cui S H,Wang W J,Li Y Z,Tian S Q.2015.Ecological security assessment in Dongjiang Lake watershed based on PSFR model.Resources and Environment in The Yangtze Basin,24(S1):197-205.(in Chinese)
Lu S,Li J,Guan X L,Gao X J,Gu Y H,Zhang D H,Mi F,Li D D.2018.The evaluation of forestry ecological security in China:Developing a decision support system. Ecological Indicator,91:664-678.
Ma A H,Li M,Li X D.2007.Based on AHP study of land comprehensive capacity in Xinjiang.Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,(3):114-118.(in Chinese)
Ohl C,Krauze K,Grunbuhel C.2007.Towards an understanding of long-term ecosystem dynamics by merging socio-economic and environmental research criteria for long-term socio-ecological research sites selection.Ecological Economics,63(2-3):383-391.
Qiao H J,Wang X Y,Wang W,Luo Z H,Tang K,Huang Y,Yang S N,Cao W W,Zhao X Q,Jiang J P,Hu J H.2018.From nature reserve to national park system pilot:changes of environmental coverage in the Three-River-Source National Park and implications for amphibian and reptile conservation.Biodiversity Science,26(2):202-209.(in Chinese)
Shao Q Q,Fan J W,et al.2012.The Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Ecosystem in the Three-River Headwaters Region.Beijing:Science Press,(in Chinese)
Shao Q Q,Liu J Y,Huang L,Fan J W,Xu X L,Wang J B.2013.Integrated assessment on the effectiveness of ecological conservation in Sanjiangyuan National Nature Reserve.Geographical Research,32(9):1645-1656.(in Chinese)
Su S,Chen X,Degloria S D,Wu J P.2010.Integrative fuzzy set pair model for land ecological security assessment:a case study of Xiaolangdi Reservoir Region,China.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,24(5):639-647.
Yang F,Shao Q Q,Guo X J,Li Y Z,Wang D L,Zhang Y X,Wang Y C,Liu J Y,Fan J W.2018.Effects of wild large herbivore popula-tions on the grassland-livestock balance in Maduo County.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,27(7):1-13.(in Chinese)
Yang S X.2017.Temporal and spatial dynamics of alpine grassland biomass and grassland livestock balance and its influential factors in the Three River Headwaters Region.Ph.D thesis.Lanzhou:Lanzhou University.(in Chinese)
Zhang H,Xu E.2017a.An evaluation of the ecological and environmental security on China's terrestrial ecosystems.Scientific Reports,7(1).
Zhang L X,Fan J W,Shao Q Q,Tang F P,Zhang H Y,Li Y Z.2014.Change in grassland yield and grazing pressure in the Three Rivers headwater region before and after the implementation of the eco-restoration project Acta Prataculturae Sinica,23(5):116-123.(in Chinese)
Zhang L X,Fan J W,Zhou D,Zhang H Y.2017b.Ecological protection and restoration program reduced grazing pressure in the ThreeRiver Headwaters Region,China Rangeland Ecology&Management,70(5):540-548.
Zhang R,Dai W T,Liu Z S,D J H.2017.Evaluation of land ecological security in Agro-Pastoral zone of Northern China-A case study ofBaicheng city.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,24(2):259-266.(in Chinese)
Zhou H K,Zhao X Q,Zhang C Y,Xing X F,Zhu B W,Du F C.2010.The Predicament of Ecological Migrants and Sustainable Development Strategy in the Source Area of Three Rivers.China Population,Resources and Environment,20(S1):185-188.(in Chinese)
Zhu XL,Li W L,Xue Z Z,Xu D D,Wang H.2012.Evaluation of ecological carrying capacities in Gannan based on PSR model.Pratacultural Science, 29(2):198-203.(in Chinese)
马爱慧,李默,李晓东.2007.基于AHP的新疆土地利用综合承载力研究.云南地理环境研究,(3):114-118.
朱晓丽,李文龙,薛中正,徐丹丹,王浩.2012.基于生态安全的高寒牧区生态承载力评价.草业科学,29(2):198-203.
乔慧捷,汪晓意,王伟,罗振华,唐科,黄燕,杨胜男,曹伟伟,赵新全,江建平,胡军华.2018.从自然保护区到国家公园体制试点:三江源国家公园环境覆盖的变化及其对两栖爬行类保护的启示.生物多样性,26(2):202-209.
刘纪远,徐新良,邵全琴.2008.近30年来青海三江源地区草地退化的时空特征.地理学报,(4):364-376.
刘孝富,邵艳莹,崔书红,王文杰,李元钊,田石强.2015.基于PSFR模型的东江湖流域生态安全评价.长江流域资源与环境,24(S1):197-205.
刘敏超,李迪强,温琰茂,栾晓峰.2005.三江源地区生态系统生态功能分析及其价值评估.环境科学学报,(9):1280-1286.
李欣海,郜二虎,李百度,詹祥江.2019.用物种分布模型和距离抽样估计三江源藏野驴、藏原羚和藏羚羊的数量.中国科学:生命科学,49(2):151-162.
杨帆,邵全琴,郭兴健,李愈哲,王东亮,张雅娴,汪阳春,刘纪远,樊江文.2018.玛多县大型野生食草动物种群数量对草畜平衡的影响研究.草业学报,27(7):1-13.
杨淑霞.2017.三江源地区高寒草地生物量和草畜平衡的时空变化动态及其影响因素研究.兰州:兰州大学博士学位论文.
张良侠,樊江文,邵全琴,唐风沛,张海燕,李愈哲.2014.生态工程前后三江源草地产草量与载畜压力的变化分析.草业学报,23(5):116-123.
张茹,戴文婷,刘兆顺,董霁红.2017.我国北方农牧交错区土地生态安全评价——以白城市为例.水土保持研究,24(2):259-266.
邵全琴,刘纪远,黄麟,樊江文,徐新良,王军邦. 2013.2005-2009年三江源自然保护区生态保护和建设工程生态成效综合评估.地理研究,32(9):1645-1656.
邵全琴,樊江文,等.2012.三江源区生态系统综合监测与评估.北京:科学出版社.
周华坤,赵新全,张超远,邢小方,朱宝文,杜发春.2010.三江源区生态移民的困境与可持续发展策略.中国人口·资源与环境,20(S1):185-188.
徐新良.2017a.中国GDP空间分布公里网格数据集.中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统.(http://www.resdc.cn/DOI),DOI:10.12078/2017121102.
徐新良.2017b.中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集.中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心数据注册与出版系统(http://www.resdc.cn/DOI),DOI:10.12078/2017121101.
凌红波,徐海量,乔木,史薇.2010.基于AHP和模糊综合评判的玛纳斯河流域水资源安全评价.中国沙漠,30(4):989-994.
高雅灵,林慧龙,周祯莹,魏祎梅.2019.三江源地区可持续发展的生态足迹.草业科学,36(1):11-19.
黄青,任志远.2004.论生态承载力与生态安全.干旱区资源与环境,(2):11-17.
蔡振媛,覃雯,高红梅,吴彤,迟翔文,杨俊东,苗紫燕,张婧捷,宋鹏飞,连新明,苏建平,张同作.2018.三江源国家公园兽类物种多样性及区系分析.兽类学报,DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150215.
樊江文,邵全琴,王军邦,陈卓奇,钟华平.2011.三江源草地载畜压力时空动态分析.中国草地学报,33(3):64-72.