中国综合减灾示范社区的发展演变与创建成效评价
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摘要
基于2008-2017年全国综合减灾示范社区名单,结合各地灾情报表、社会人口经济等数据,分析其近十年来的时空变化特征,并首次量化评估综合减灾示范社区项目的示范效益和减灾效益。研究表明:①全国综合减灾示范社区总量呈现逐年稳步增长态势,省域尺度实现了100%的全面覆盖,县域尺度覆盖率达到了87%,各省份单位面积示范社区数量与地区生产总值和自然灾害综合风险等级显著相关;②示范社区的空间关联性随时间不断增强,可一定程度上印证综合减灾示范社区的示范效益,同时其集聚效应具有明显的局部差异性,需因地制宜地制定相关政策;③通过因灾损失率比值分析显示了示范社区建设的减灾效益和规模效益,发现存在边际效益递减现象,需要进行动态管理。
Based on the 2008-2017 national comprehensive disaster reduction demonstration community list,combined with local disaster information,social-economic data and other data sources,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of demonstration communities in the past ten years,and quantifies the demonstration benefits and disaster reduction benefits of this project. The findings of this research show that: ①The total number of demonstration communities has been growing steadily yearly. The spatial coverage has achieved 100%on the provincial-level; and 87% on the county-level. The number of demonstration communities per unit area is significantly related to regional GDP and the comprehensive risk level of natural disasters. ②The spatial correlation of demonstration communities increases with time,which can illustrate the demonstration benefits of the project to a certain extent. Meanwhile,its agglomeration effect has obvious local differences,thus it is necessary to formulate relevant policies according to local conditions. ③Through the ratio analysis of the disaster loss rate,the disaster reduction benefit and scale benefit of the demonstration community construction have shown a diminishing marginal benefit,which indicates the need of dynamic management.
Based on the 2008-2017 national comprehensive disaster reduction demonstration community list,combined with local disaster information,social-economic data and other data sources,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of demonstration communities in the past ten years,and quantifies the demonstration benefits and disaster reduction benefits of this project. The findings of this research show that: ①The total number of demonstration communities has been growing steadily yearly. The spatial coverage has achieved 100%on the provincial-level; and 87% on the county-level. The number of demonstration communities per unit area is significantly related to regional GDP and the comprehensive risk level of natural disasters. ②The spatial correlation of demonstration communities increases with time,which can illustrate the demonstration benefits of the project to a certain extent. Meanwhile,its agglomeration effect has obvious local differences,thus it is necessary to formulate relevant policies according to local conditions. ③Through the ratio analysis of the disaster loss rate,the disaster reduction benefit and scale benefit of the demonstration community construction have shown a diminishing marginal benefit,which indicates the need of dynamic management.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国民政部.民政部国家减灾办发布2017年全国自然灾害基本情况[EB/OL].[2018-02-01][2018-09-04]. http://www. mca. gov. cn/article/xw/mzyw/201802/20180215007709. shtml.
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[5] Pearce L. Disaster management and community planning,and public participation:How to achieve sustainable hazards mitigation[J]. Natural Hazards,2003,53(2):211-228.
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[13]民政部,中国地震局,中国气象局.全国综合减灾示范社区创建管理暂行办法[EB/OL].[2013-04-22][2018-09-20]. http://www. scjz. gov. cn/zcwj_3497/hybz/201410/t20141030_13696. htm.
[14]周洪建,张卫星,雷永登,等.中国综合减灾示范社区的时空格局[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1077-1083.
[15]王开军,黄添强.基于趋势秩的Spearman相关方法[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(1):38-41.
[16] Moran P. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J]. Biometrika,1950,37:17-23.
[17] Anselin Luc. Local indicators of spatial association-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[18]陈伟,黄洪.我国城市社区治理中层理论建构与风险管理机制探析[J].南京社会科学,2014(12):72-78.
[19]史培军.中国自然灾害风险地图集[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[2]张晓宁.中国的社区减灾政策[J].中国减灾,2010(5):18-19.
[3] Geis D E. By Design:The disaster resistant and quality-of-life community[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2000,1(3):151-160.
[4]顾林生.国外基层灾害应急管理的机制评析[J].中国减灾,2007(6):30-35.
[5] Pearce L. Disaster management and community planning,and public participation:How to achieve sustainable hazards mitigation[J]. Natural Hazards,2003,53(2):211-228.
[6] Patterson O,Weil F,Patel K. The role of community in disaster response:Conceptual models. Population Research and Policy Review,2010,29(2):127-141.
[7]张亚美.城市社区防灾减灾资源评价与优化管理[D].长沙:中南大学,2012.
[8] Baudoin M A,Henly-Shepard S,Fernando N,et al. From topdown to “community-centric” approaches to early warning systems:Exploring pathways to improve disaster risk reduction through community participation[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science,2016,7(2):163-174.
[9]徐漫辰.适灾韧性理念下城市社区灾害脆弱性及减灾优化方法研究[D].天津:天津大学,2017.
[10]国务院办公厅.国家综合防灾减灾规划(2011-2015年)[EB/OL].[2011-12-08][2018-09-20]. http://www. gov. cn/zwgk/2011-12/08/content_2015178. htm.
[11]中华人民共和国民政行业标准. MZ/T 026-2011全国综合减灾示范社区创建规范[S].北京:中国社会出版社,2012.
[12]国务院办公厅.国家综合防灾减灾规划(2016-2020年)[EB/OL].[2017-01-13][2018-09-20]. http://www. gov. cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/13/content_5159459. htm.
[13]民政部,中国地震局,中国气象局.全国综合减灾示范社区创建管理暂行办法[EB/OL].[2013-04-22][2018-09-20]. http://www. scjz. gov. cn/zcwj_3497/hybz/201410/t20141030_13696. htm.
[14]周洪建,张卫星,雷永登,等.中国综合减灾示范社区的时空格局[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1077-1083.
[15]王开军,黄添强.基于趋势秩的Spearman相关方法[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(1):38-41.
[16] Moran P. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J]. Biometrika,1950,37:17-23.
[17] Anselin Luc. Local indicators of spatial association-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[18]陈伟,黄洪.我国城市社区治理中层理论建构与风险管理机制探析[J].南京社会科学,2014(12):72-78.
[19]史培军.中国自然灾害风险地图集[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.