近55年来青海省海东市气候变化特征及影响因子分析
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摘要
利用青海省海东市5个气象台站1961-2015年气候资料,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对海东市近55年的年和季平均气温、降水量、日照时数、风速、沙尘日数、云量和相对湿度等气候要素以及降水日数、潜在蒸散量和湿润指数的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:(1)近55年海东市随着气候变暖降水减少(减少速率-4.9 mm·(10a)~(-1)),总体呈现不明显的"暖干化"趋势。年平均气温和潜在蒸散量呈现显著的上升趋势(上升速率0.33℃·(10a)~(-1)和7.9 mm·(10a)~(-1)),年降水日数、平均风速、沙尘暴日数、日照时数、云量和相对湿度表现为显著减少趋势(减少速率分别为-2.3 d·(10a)~(-1)、-0.13 m·s~(-1)·(10a)~(-1)、-6.3 d·(10a)~(-1)、-36.6 h·(10a)~(-1)、-0.12成·(10a)~(-1)和-0.7%·(10a)~(-1)),湿润指数和降水量表现为不显著的减少趋势。(2)海东市年平均气温和潜在蒸散量分别在1995-1996年和2001年发生了显著的突变性升高,年平均风速、降水日数、日照时数、总云量和相对湿度分别于1982年、1993-1994年、2002-2003年、1984年、2009-2010年呈显著突变性减小,降水量和湿润指数的变化未达到突变标准。(3)海东市冬季气温变化与青藏高原指数、北极涛动指数和西风环流指数有明显的正相关关系,青藏高原的动力和热力作用对高原东北侧的海东市气温变化有很重要的影响,而该地区温度还受由北极涛动引起的冬季风和西风环流的影响。海东市夏季降水量与南亚夏季风指数和北极涛动指数有较好的负相关,南亚夏季风的进退以及所携带的水汽是影响该区域降水量变化的主要因素之一。
Using climatic data of 1961-2015 from 5 meteorological stations in Haidong, Qinghai Province, and the method of linear regression and Mann-Kendall mutation detection, the climatic factors such as average annual and seasonal temperatures, precipitation, sunlight hours, wind speed, dust day, cloud, and relative humidity, as well as the change trend and change characteristic of the raining days, potential evapotranspiration, and humidity index were studied. The result showed:(1) In recent 55 years, Haidong had been warmer with the decrease of precipitation(-4.9 mm·(10 a)~(-1)), showing an obvious ‘warmer and dryer' trend. The annual average temperature and potential evapotranspiration showed a significant increase trend(0.33 ℃·(10 a)~(-1) and 7.9 mm·(10 a)~(-1)), the number of annual precipitation days, the average wind speed, the number of sandstorm days, sunshine hours, cloud and relative humidity showed a significant decrease trend(-2.3 d·(10 a)~(-1),-0.13 m·s~(-1)·(10 a)~(-1),-6.3 d·(10 a)~(-1),-36.6 h·(10 a)~(-1),-0.12·(10 a)~(-1) and-0.7%·(10 a)~(-1)), the humidity index and precipitation showed decreased trend but not significant.(2) The average annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration had a significant abrupt increase in 1995-1996 and 2001. The average annual wind speed, the number precipitation days, the sunshine hours, the total cloud and relative humidity significantly lower in 1982, 1993-1994, 2002-2003, 1984 and 2009-2010, while the change of the humidity index did not reach the mutation standard.(3) There was a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature change in Haidong and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau index, the Arctic Oscillation Index and the westerly circulation index. The dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau had an important influence on the temperature changes in Haidong, which was located in the northeast side of plateau, and the temperature in this area was also affected by the winter wind and the westerly circulation caused by the Arctic Oscillation. The summer precipitation in Haidong had a greater negative correlation with the south Asian summer monsoon index and the Arctic Oscillation Index. The advance and retreat of the south Asian summer monsoon and its water vapor were one of the main factors affecting the precipitation in study area.keyword:
Using climatic data of 1961-2015 from 5 meteorological stations in Haidong, Qinghai Province, and the method of linear regression and Mann-Kendall mutation detection, the climatic factors such as average annual and seasonal temperatures, precipitation, sunlight hours, wind speed, dust day, cloud, and relative humidity, as well as the change trend and change characteristic of the raining days, potential evapotranspiration, and humidity index were studied. The result showed:(1) In recent 55 years, Haidong had been warmer with the decrease of precipitation(-4.9 mm·(10 a)~(-1)), showing an obvious ‘warmer and dryer' trend. The annual average temperature and potential evapotranspiration showed a significant increase trend(0.33 ℃·(10 a)~(-1) and 7.9 mm·(10 a)~(-1)), the number of annual precipitation days, the average wind speed, the number of sandstorm days, sunshine hours, cloud and relative humidity showed a significant decrease trend(-2.3 d·(10 a)~(-1),-0.13 m·s~(-1)·(10 a)~(-1),-6.3 d·(10 a)~(-1),-36.6 h·(10 a)~(-1),-0.12·(10 a)~(-1) and-0.7%·(10 a)~(-1)), the humidity index and precipitation showed decreased trend but not significant.(2) The average annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration had a significant abrupt increase in 1995-1996 and 2001. The average annual wind speed, the number precipitation days, the sunshine hours, the total cloud and relative humidity significantly lower in 1982, 1993-1994, 2002-2003, 1984 and 2009-2010, while the change of the humidity index did not reach the mutation standard.(3) There was a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature change in Haidong and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau index, the Arctic Oscillation Index and the westerly circulation index. The dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau had an important influence on the temperature changes in Haidong, which was located in the northeast side of plateau, and the temperature in this area was also affected by the winter wind and the westerly circulation caused by the Arctic Oscillation. The summer precipitation in Haidong had a greater negative correlation with the south Asian summer monsoon index and the Arctic Oscillation Index. The advance and retreat of the south Asian summer monsoon and its water vapor were one of the main factors affecting the precipitation in study area.keyword:
引文
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[13] 马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746.
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[15] 靳立亚,李静,王新,等.近50年来中国西北地区干湿状况时空分布[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):847-854.
[16] 周宁芳,秦宁生,屠其璞,等.近50年青藏高原地面气温变化的区域特征分析[J].高原气象,2005,(3):344-349.
[17] 靳立亚,符娇兰,陈发虎.近44年来中国西北降水量变化的区域差异以及对全球变暖的响应[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):567-572.
[18] 李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇,等.中国地区日照时数近5O年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.
[19] 施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[20] 李静,何清,姚俊强.内蒙古西部地区气候变化特征及影响因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(5):186-191.
[21] 张红丽,张强,刘骞,等.中国干旱状况的时空分布特征及影响因素[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(4):484-491.
[22] 刘德坤,王军邦,齐述华.基于湿润指数的近35年青海省干湿状况变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):246-256.
[23] 徐静,张鑫.青海省东部地区气候变化与ENSO 事件关系[J].水文,2012,32(4):88-95.
[24] 王慧.近50年青海省风速的变化特征分析[J].科技资讯,2013,1:130-131.
[25] 雷生国.1956-2015年海东市雾霾及沙尘天气变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2016,l8:193-196.
[26] 刘义花,汪青春,王振宇,等.1971-2007年青海省日照时数的时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2011,35(5):1010-1016.
[2] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近5O年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
[3] 唐国利,任国玉.近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):791-798.
[4] 唐红玉,翟盘茂.1951-2002年中国东、西部地区地面气温变化对比[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):526-534.
[5] 虞海燕,刘树花,赵娜,等.我国近59年日照时数变化特征及其与温度、风速、降水的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(3):389-398.
[6] 李鹏飞,孙小明,赵昕奕.近 50 年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):57-63.
[7] 李栋梁,魏丽,蔡英,等.中国西北现代气候变化事实与未来趋势展望冰川冻土[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):135-142.
[8] 汪青春,秦宁生,唐红玉.青藏高原近44年来气候变化的事实及其特征[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(2):234-239.
[9] 陈晓光,李林,朱西德,等.青海省气候变化的区域性差异及其成因研究[J].气候 变化 研究 进展,2009,5(5):249-254.
[10] 赵燕宁,时兴合,王式功,等.青海河湟谷地气候及干旱变化研究[J].中国 沙漠,2006,26(1):54-59.
[11] 梅朵,高原,马艳,等.近50a青海西宁气温变化特征[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):100-106.
[12] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:37-59.
[13] 马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746.
[14] 中国气象局.GB/T20481-2006,气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[15] 靳立亚,李静,王新,等.近50年来中国西北地区干湿状况时空分布[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):847-854.
[16] 周宁芳,秦宁生,屠其璞,等.近50年青藏高原地面气温变化的区域特征分析[J].高原气象,2005,(3):344-349.
[17] 靳立亚,符娇兰,陈发虎.近44年来中国西北降水量变化的区域差异以及对全球变暖的响应[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):567-572.
[18] 李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇,等.中国地区日照时数近5O年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.
[19] 施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[20] 李静,何清,姚俊强.内蒙古西部地区气候变化特征及影响因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(5):186-191.
[21] 张红丽,张强,刘骞,等.中国干旱状况的时空分布特征及影响因素[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2016,52(4):484-491.
[22] 刘德坤,王军邦,齐述华.基于湿润指数的近35年青海省干湿状况变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):246-256.
[23] 徐静,张鑫.青海省东部地区气候变化与ENSO 事件关系[J].水文,2012,32(4):88-95.
[24] 王慧.近50年青海省风速的变化特征分析[J].科技资讯,2013,1:130-131.
[25] 雷生国.1956-2015年海东市雾霾及沙尘天气变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2016,l8:193-196.
[26] 刘义花,汪青春,王振宇,等.1971-2007年青海省日照时数的时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2011,35(5):1010-1016.