基于VAR模型的中国物流业与经济发展互动关系研究
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摘要
本文基于中国2000～2017年物流业与经济的统计年鉴数据,从物流业投入和产出两个维度构建物流业指标体系,从经济增长水平、居民生活水平和对外开放水平3个维度构建经济发展指标体系,运用线性加权法构建综合评价指数函数,分别测算物流业与经济发展综合评价数据。基于综合评价数据建立VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法分析物流业与经济发展之间的互动关系。研究结果表明:中国经济发展水平对物流业的正向影响显著,经济发展水平是物流业的单向格兰杰原因,有一定的促进作用但贡献仍较低,现阶段中国物流业对经济发展水平的影响不显著,物流业总体规模不大,整体效益未能体现。
Based on the data of logistics industry and economy in China during 2000～2017,we construct the index system of logistics industry from two dimensions including inputs and outputs and the index system of economic development from three dimensions including economic growth,living standard of residents and opening level. A linear weighting method is used to construct comprehensive evaluation index function to calculate the comprehensive evaluation data of logistics industry and economic development respectively. Based on the VAR model,we analyze the interactive relationship between the logistics industry and the economic development through the econometric methods,such as Grainger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition. The result shows that China's economic development has a significant positive impact on the logistics industry. Economic development is the one-way Grainger reason of the logistics industry. Economic development has a certain promotional effect on the logistics industry,but its contribution is still relatively low. At the present stage,the impact of China's logistics industry on the level of economic development is not significant. The overall scale of the logistics industry is not large,and the overall benefit is not reflected.
Based on the data of logistics industry and economy in China during 2000～2017,we construct the index system of logistics industry from two dimensions including inputs and outputs and the index system of economic development from three dimensions including economic growth,living standard of residents and opening level. A linear weighting method is used to construct comprehensive evaluation index function to calculate the comprehensive evaluation data of logistics industry and economic development respectively. Based on the VAR model,we analyze the interactive relationship between the logistics industry and the economic development through the econometric methods,such as Grainger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition. The result shows that China's economic development has a significant positive impact on the logistics industry. Economic development is the one-way Grainger reason of the logistics industry. Economic development has a certain promotional effect on the logistics industry,but its contribution is still relatively low. At the present stage,the impact of China's logistics industry on the level of economic development is not significant. The overall scale of the logistics industry is not large,and the overall benefit is not reflected.
引文
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[2]金芳芳.物流产业发展对经济增长带动作用的实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2012,(3):135~140.
[3]贾海成.物流产业发展与区域经济关联分析——以天津和上海为例[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(23):44~49.
[4]魏修建,陈恒.物流发展驱动要素对经济增长贡献度的区域差异性研究——基于丝绸之路经济带西北地区面板数据模型的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2014,(6):14~22.
[5]聂正彦,李帅.物流业对中国区域经济增长的影响分析——基于面板分位数回归方法[J].工业技术经济,2015,(10):77~82.
[6]吴继贵,叶阿忠.中国现代物流业与经济增长关系的研究[J].统计与决策,2015,(15):109~112.
[7] Xu T T,Peng J L,Ding F. Linkage Relationship Between Port Logistics and Regional Economy Based on Eviews Software[J].Journal of Software,2013,8(4):971~977.
[8] Huang Y,Ye W,Wang Q. Analysis of the Relationship Between the Development of Logistics Industry and the Evolution of Global Economic Regions[J]. Journal of the Chinese Institute of Industrial Engineers,2014,31(8):471~476.
[9] Zhou X Y,Wang Z,Sun H. Research on the Interaction Between Resource Logistics Industrial Cluster and Regional Economic[J].Advanced Materials Research,2014,(12):1073~1076,2372~2376.
[10]刘南,李燕.现代物流与经济增长的关系研究——基于浙江省的实证分析[J].管理工程学报,2007,21(1):151~154.
[11]赵立波.物流产业发展与经济增长关系实证分析[J].中国流通经济,2012,26(10):41~45.
[12]祝捷,李倩,蔡雪雄.基于经济水平指标的城市发展评价——以海峡西岸经济区20城市为例[J].经济问题,2017,(12):114~117.
[13]张毅,陈圻.中国区域物流业与经济发展协调度研究—基于复合系统模型与30个省区面板数据[J].软科学,2010,24(12):70~79.
[14]闫璐璐,王小梅,柴彦威,等.基于熵变视角的生态脆弱区城市化与生态环境交互耦合发展研究——以西宁市为例[J].中国人口资源与环境,2016,26(11):39~43.
[15]贺玉德,马祖军.基于CRITIC-DEA的区域物流与区域经济协同发展模型及评价——以四川省为例[J].软科学,2015,29(3):102~106.
[16]张竟成,张竟轶.基于VAR模型的物流产业与区域经济长期关系研究[J].管理世界,2017,(8):180~181.
[17]洪帅,吕荣胜.物流产业发展与能源消费关系的实证研究[J].预测,2017,36(3):56~61.
[18]樊敏.中国城市群物流产业效率分析及发展策略研究——基于产业运作及联动发展视角[J].软科学,2010,24(5):11~16.