增长与收缩——珠三角城市经济韧性的测度与影响因素（英文）
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摘要
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, China witnessed gradual shrinkage of cities in the Pearl River Delta(PRD). In this study, we introduce the concept of economic resilience to analyse urban growth and shrinkage in the context of a rapidly-urbanising region. Multiple regression analysis is performed to explore the determinants of economic resilience in the PRD. By measuring resistance in the shrinking phase and recoverability in the growing phase in a group of cities in the PRD, this study distinguishes four scenarios and investigates their characteristics from a spatial perspective. The results demonstrate that the financial crisis had a severe and asymmetric influence on this area, indicating more than 15% of cities are faced with shrinking. The spatial distribution of economic resilience indicates a centre-periphery pattern, that is, high economic resilience in the inner ring and low economic resilience in the outer ring of the PRD. The service economy is found to play a significant role in promoting urban economic resilience. Results imply that sound economic policies for enhancing resilience: both poor local financial status and a high degree of export concentration adversely impact resistance, while upgrading the manufacturing economy and stimulating of industrial innovation are conducive to improve recoverability.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, China witnessed gradual shrinkage of cities in the Pearl River Delta(PRD). In this study, we introduce the concept of economic resilience to analyse urban growth and shrinkage in the context of a rapidly-urbanising region. Multiple regression analysis is performed to explore the determinants of economic resilience in the PRD. By measuring resistance in the shrinking phase and recoverability in the growing phase in a group of cities in the PRD, this study distinguishes four scenarios and investigates their characteristics from a spatial perspective. The results demonstrate that the financial crisis had a severe and asymmetric influence on this area, indicating more than 15% of cities are faced with shrinking. The spatial distribution of economic resilience indicates a centre-periphery pattern, that is, high economic resilience in the inner ring and low economic resilience in the outer ring of the PRD. The service economy is found to play a significant role in promoting urban economic resilience. Results imply that sound economic policies for enhancing resilience: both poor local financial status and a high degree of export concentration adversely impact resistance, while upgrading the manufacturing economy and stimulating of industrial innovation are conducive to improve recoverability.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, China witnessed gradual shrinkage of cities in the Pearl River Delta(PRD). In this study, we introduce the concept of economic resilience to analyse urban growth and shrinkage in the context of a rapidly-urbanising region. Multiple regression analysis is performed to explore the determinants of economic resilience in the PRD. By measuring resistance in the shrinking phase and recoverability in the growing phase in a group of cities in the PRD, this study distinguishes four scenarios and investigates their characteristics from a spatial perspective. The results demonstrate that the financial crisis had a severe and asymmetric influence on this area, indicating more than 15% of cities are faced with shrinking. The spatial distribution of economic resilience indicates a centre-periphery pattern, that is, high economic resilience in the inner ring and low economic resilience in the outer ring of the PRD. The service economy is found to play a significant role in promoting urban economic resilience. Results imply that sound economic policies for enhancing resilience: both poor local financial status and a high degree of export concentration adversely impact resistance, while upgrading the manufacturing economy and stimulating of industrial innovation are conducive to improve recoverability.
引文
Bartholomae F,Nam C W,Schoenberg A,2017.Urban shrinkage and resurgence in Germany.Urban Studies,54(12):2701-2718.
Beauregard R A,2009.Urban population loss in historical perspective:United States,1820-2000.Environment and Planning A,41:514-528.
Boschma R,2015.Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience.Regional Studies,49(5):733-751.
Briguglio L,Cordina G,Farrugia N et al.,2009.Economic vulnerability and resilience:Concepts and measurements.Oxford Development Studies,37(3):229-247.
Bristow G,Healy A,2014.Regional resilience:An agency perspective.Regional Studies,48(5):923-935.
Christopherson S,Michie J,Tyler P,2010.Regional resilience:Theoretical and empirical perspectives.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):3-10.
Cowell M M,2013.Bounce back or move on:Regional resilience and economic development planning.Cities,30:212-222.
Davies A,Tonts M,2010.Economic diversity and regional socioeconomic performance:An empirical analysis of the Western Australian grain belt.Geographical Research,48(3):223-234.
Dawley S,Pike A,Tomaney J,2010.Towards the resilient region?Local Economy,25(8):650-667.
Dawley S,Stenning A,Pike A,2008.Mapping corporations,connecting communities:Remaking steel geographies in northern England and southern Poland.European Urban and Regional Studies,15(3):265-287.
Di Caro P,2015.Testing and explaining economic resilience with an application to Italian regions.Papers in Regional Science,96(1):93-113.
Drobniak A,2012.The urban resilience-economic perspective.Journal of Economics and Management,10:5-20.
Du Z W,Li X,2017.Growth or shrinkage:New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(10):1800-1811.(in Chinese)
Giannakis E,Bruggeman A,2017.Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis:A European perspective.European Planning Studies,25(8):1394-1415.
Glaeser E L,2005.Review of Richard Florida’s the rise of the creative class.Regional Science and Urban Economics,35(5):593-596.
Grabher G,1993.The Embedded Firm:On the Socio-economics of Industrial Networks.London and New York:Routledge.
Gunderson L,Holling B,2002.Panarchy:Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems.Washington:Island Press.
Haase A,Rink D,Grossmann K et al.,2014.Conceptualizing urban shrinkage.Environment and Planning A,46(7):1519-1534.
Harrison B,1984.Regional Restructuring and‘Good Business Climates’:The Economic Transformation of New England since World War II.New York:Oxford University Press.
Hartt M,2018.The diversity of North American shrinking cities.Urban Studies,55(13):2946-2959.
Hassink R,2010.Regional resilience:A promising concept to explain differences in regional economic adaptability?Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3:45-58.
Hattori K,Kaido K,Matsuyuki M,2017.The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan.Cities,69:124-132.
H?u?ermann H,Siebel W,1988.Die schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie.In:Friedrichs J,Soziologische Stadtforschung.Wiesbaden:VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
Hill E,Wial H,Wolman H,2008.Exploring Regional Economic Resilience.Working Paper 2008-04.University of California:Institute of Urban and Regional Development.
Holling C S,1973.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,4(1):1-23.
Holling C S,1996.Engineering versus ecological resilience.In:Schulze P et al.,Engineering Within Ecological Constraints.Washington:National Academy Press.
Hu X,Hassink R,2017.Exploring adaptation and adaptability in uneven economic resilience:A tale of two Chinese mining regions.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,10(3):527-541.
Hudson R,2005.Rethinking change in old industrial regions:Reflecting on the experiences of North East England.Environment and Planning A,37(4):581-596.
Hudson R,2009.Resilient regions in an uncertain world:Wishful thinking or a practical reality?Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):11-25.
Hollander J B,Pallagst K,Schwarz T et al.,2009.Planning shrinking cities.Progress in Planning,72(4):223-232.
Kabisch N,Haase D,Haase A,2012.Urban population development in Europe,1991-2008:The examples of Poland and the UK.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36:1326-1348.
Long Y,Wu K,2016.Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China.Environment and Planning A,48:220-222.
Martin R,2010.Roepke lecture in economic geography-Rethinking regional path dependence:Beyond lock-in to evolution.Economic Geography,86(1):1-27.
Martin R,2011.Regional economic resilience,hysteresis and recessionary shocks.Journal of Economic Geography,12(1):1-32.
Martin R,Sunley P,2015.On the notion of regional economic resilience:Conceptualization and explanation.Journal of Economic Geography,15(1):1-42.
Martin R,Sunley P,Gardiner B et al.,2016.How regions react to recessions:Resilience and the role of economic structure.Regional Studies,50(4):561-585.
Martin R,Sunley P,Tyler P,2015.Local growth evolutions:Recession,resilience and recovery.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,8(2):141-148.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S et al.,2012.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):213-225.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Weyman T,Fol S et al.,2016.Shrinking cities in Australia,Japan,Europe and the USA:From a global process to local policy responses.Progress in Planning,105:1-48.
Metcalfe J S,Foster J,Ramlogan R,2006.Adaptive economic growth.Cambridge Journal of Economics,30:7-32.
Modica M,Reggiani A,2015.Spatial economic resilience:Overview and perspectives.Networks and Spatial Economics,15(2):211-233.
Montgomery D C,Peck E A,Vining G G,2012.Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis.Hoboken NJ:John Wiley&Sons.
Oswalt P,2006.Shrinking Cities,International Research.Vol.1.Ostfildern:Hatje Crantz Verlag.
Palaskas T,Psycharis Y,Rovolis A et al.,2015.The asymmetrical impact of the economic crisis on unemployment and welfare in Greek urban economies.Journal of Economic Geography,15(5):973-1007.
Pendall R,Foster K A,Cowell M,2010.Resilience and regions:Building understanding of the metaphor.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):71-84.
Pike A,Dawley S,Tomaney J,2010.Resilience,adaptation and adaptability.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):59-70.
Pimm S L,1984.The complexity and stability of ecosystems.Nature,307(5949):321.
Rieniets T,2009.Shrinking cities:Causes and effects of urban population losses in the twentieth century.Nature and Culture,4(3):231-254.
Schilling J,Logan J,2008.Greening the rust belt:A green infrastructure model for right sizing America's shrinking cities.Journal of the American Planning Association,74(4):451-466.
Sensier M,Bristow G,Healy A,2016.Measuring regional economic resilience across Europe:Operationalizing a complex concept.Spatial Economic Analysis,11(2):128-151.
Simmie J,Martin R,2010.The economic resilience of regions:Towards an evolutionary approach.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):27-43.
Turok I,Mykhnenko V,2007.The trajectories of European cities,1960-2005.Cities,24:165-182.
Walker B Gunderson L,Kinzig A et al.,2006.A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems.Ecology and Society,11(1):13.
Webber D J,Healy A,Bristow G,2018.Regional growth paths and resilience:A European analysis.Economic Geography,11(2):227-240.
Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M,2012.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):261-280.
Wiechmann T,Wolff M,2013.Urban shrinkage in a spatial perspective:Operationalization of shrinking cities in Europe,1990-2010.AESOP-ACSP Joint Congress,Vol.1519.
Wolfe D A,Gertler M,2016.Growing Urban Economies:Innovation,Creating and Governance in Canadian City-regions.Toronto:University of Toronto Press.
Xu Y Y,Wang C,2017.Influencing factors of regional economic resilience in the 2008 financial crisis:A case study of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces.Progress in Geography,36(8):986-994.(in Chinese)
Yang Z,Dunford M,2018.City shrinkage in China:Scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses.Regional Studies,52:1111-1121.
Beauregard R A,2009.Urban population loss in historical perspective:United States,1820-2000.Environment and Planning A,41:514-528.
Boschma R,2015.Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience.Regional Studies,49(5):733-751.
Briguglio L,Cordina G,Farrugia N et al.,2009.Economic vulnerability and resilience:Concepts and measurements.Oxford Development Studies,37(3):229-247.
Bristow G,Healy A,2014.Regional resilience:An agency perspective.Regional Studies,48(5):923-935.
Christopherson S,Michie J,Tyler P,2010.Regional resilience:Theoretical and empirical perspectives.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):3-10.
Cowell M M,2013.Bounce back or move on:Regional resilience and economic development planning.Cities,30:212-222.
Davies A,Tonts M,2010.Economic diversity and regional socioeconomic performance:An empirical analysis of the Western Australian grain belt.Geographical Research,48(3):223-234.
Dawley S,Pike A,Tomaney J,2010.Towards the resilient region?Local Economy,25(8):650-667.
Dawley S,Stenning A,Pike A,2008.Mapping corporations,connecting communities:Remaking steel geographies in northern England and southern Poland.European Urban and Regional Studies,15(3):265-287.
Di Caro P,2015.Testing and explaining economic resilience with an application to Italian regions.Papers in Regional Science,96(1):93-113.
Drobniak A,2012.The urban resilience-economic perspective.Journal of Economics and Management,10:5-20.
Du Z W,Li X,2017.Growth or shrinkage:New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(10):1800-1811.(in Chinese)
Giannakis E,Bruggeman A,2017.Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis:A European perspective.European Planning Studies,25(8):1394-1415.
Glaeser E L,2005.Review of Richard Florida’s the rise of the creative class.Regional Science and Urban Economics,35(5):593-596.
Grabher G,1993.The Embedded Firm:On the Socio-economics of Industrial Networks.London and New York:Routledge.
Gunderson L,Holling B,2002.Panarchy:Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems.Washington:Island Press.
Haase A,Rink D,Grossmann K et al.,2014.Conceptualizing urban shrinkage.Environment and Planning A,46(7):1519-1534.
Harrison B,1984.Regional Restructuring and‘Good Business Climates’:The Economic Transformation of New England since World War II.New York:Oxford University Press.
Hartt M,2018.The diversity of North American shrinking cities.Urban Studies,55(13):2946-2959.
Hassink R,2010.Regional resilience:A promising concept to explain differences in regional economic adaptability?Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3:45-58.
Hattori K,Kaido K,Matsuyuki M,2017.The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan.Cities,69:124-132.
H?u?ermann H,Siebel W,1988.Die schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie.In:Friedrichs J,Soziologische Stadtforschung.Wiesbaden:VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
Hill E,Wial H,Wolman H,2008.Exploring Regional Economic Resilience.Working Paper 2008-04.University of California:Institute of Urban and Regional Development.
Holling C S,1973.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,4(1):1-23.
Holling C S,1996.Engineering versus ecological resilience.In:Schulze P et al.,Engineering Within Ecological Constraints.Washington:National Academy Press.
Hu X,Hassink R,2017.Exploring adaptation and adaptability in uneven economic resilience:A tale of two Chinese mining regions.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,10(3):527-541.
Hudson R,2005.Rethinking change in old industrial regions:Reflecting on the experiences of North East England.Environment and Planning A,37(4):581-596.
Hudson R,2009.Resilient regions in an uncertain world:Wishful thinking or a practical reality?Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):11-25.
Hollander J B,Pallagst K,Schwarz T et al.,2009.Planning shrinking cities.Progress in Planning,72(4):223-232.
Kabisch N,Haase D,Haase A,2012.Urban population development in Europe,1991-2008:The examples of Poland and the UK.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36:1326-1348.
Long Y,Wu K,2016.Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China.Environment and Planning A,48:220-222.
Martin R,2010.Roepke lecture in economic geography-Rethinking regional path dependence:Beyond lock-in to evolution.Economic Geography,86(1):1-27.
Martin R,2011.Regional economic resilience,hysteresis and recessionary shocks.Journal of Economic Geography,12(1):1-32.
Martin R,Sunley P,2015.On the notion of regional economic resilience:Conceptualization and explanation.Journal of Economic Geography,15(1):1-42.
Martin R,Sunley P,Gardiner B et al.,2016.How regions react to recessions:Resilience and the role of economic structure.Regional Studies,50(4):561-585.
Martin R,Sunley P,Tyler P,2015.Local growth evolutions:Recession,resilience and recovery.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,8(2):141-148.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S et al.,2012.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):213-225.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Weyman T,Fol S et al.,2016.Shrinking cities in Australia,Japan,Europe and the USA:From a global process to local policy responses.Progress in Planning,105:1-48.
Metcalfe J S,Foster J,Ramlogan R,2006.Adaptive economic growth.Cambridge Journal of Economics,30:7-32.
Modica M,Reggiani A,2015.Spatial economic resilience:Overview and perspectives.Networks and Spatial Economics,15(2):211-233.
Montgomery D C,Peck E A,Vining G G,2012.Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis.Hoboken NJ:John Wiley&Sons.
Oswalt P,2006.Shrinking Cities,International Research.Vol.1.Ostfildern:Hatje Crantz Verlag.
Palaskas T,Psycharis Y,Rovolis A et al.,2015.The asymmetrical impact of the economic crisis on unemployment and welfare in Greek urban economies.Journal of Economic Geography,15(5):973-1007.
Pendall R,Foster K A,Cowell M,2010.Resilience and regions:Building understanding of the metaphor.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):71-84.
Pike A,Dawley S,Tomaney J,2010.Resilience,adaptation and adaptability.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):59-70.
Pimm S L,1984.The complexity and stability of ecosystems.Nature,307(5949):321.
Rieniets T,2009.Shrinking cities:Causes and effects of urban population losses in the twentieth century.Nature and Culture,4(3):231-254.
Schilling J,Logan J,2008.Greening the rust belt:A green infrastructure model for right sizing America's shrinking cities.Journal of the American Planning Association,74(4):451-466.
Sensier M,Bristow G,Healy A,2016.Measuring regional economic resilience across Europe:Operationalizing a complex concept.Spatial Economic Analysis,11(2):128-151.
Simmie J,Martin R,2010.The economic resilience of regions:Towards an evolutionary approach.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,3(1):27-43.
Turok I,Mykhnenko V,2007.The trajectories of European cities,1960-2005.Cities,24:165-182.
Walker B Gunderson L,Kinzig A et al.,2006.A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems.Ecology and Society,11(1):13.
Webber D J,Healy A,Bristow G,2018.Regional growth paths and resilience:A European analysis.Economic Geography,11(2):227-240.
Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M,2012.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):261-280.
Wiechmann T,Wolff M,2013.Urban shrinkage in a spatial perspective:Operationalization of shrinking cities in Europe,1990-2010.AESOP-ACSP Joint Congress,Vol.1519.
Wolfe D A,Gertler M,2016.Growing Urban Economies:Innovation,Creating and Governance in Canadian City-regions.Toronto:University of Toronto Press.
Xu Y Y,Wang C,2017.Influencing factors of regional economic resilience in the 2008 financial crisis:A case study of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces.Progress in Geography,36(8):986-994.(in Chinese)
Yang Z,Dunford M,2018.City shrinkage in China:Scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses.Regional Studies,52:1111-1121.