公共交通对住房市场的溢出效应与虹吸效应:以地铁为例
|
摘要
以地铁为典型代表的公共交通便利性对沿线商品住房的价格溢出效应已经在既有文献中充分展示,但本文首次提出,地铁的出现还会对住房市场的全局产生结构性影响。本文构建了一个理论模型阐述相关理论机制,地铁的溢出效应不仅体现为周边房价的上涨,也会带来周边新建住房面积的下降;地铁的出现还会对整个住房市场的需求进行空间再配置,特别体现为地铁临近的住房市场会对距离较远的住房市场产生虹吸效应。其后,基于2012—2015年上海市全部60万套新房成交的微观数据,使用渐进DID的方法考察了地铁的出现对周边住房价格和面积的溢出效应。本文的计量研究发现:新增的地铁会使得站点1公里范围内的新房价格上涨26.49%,套均住房面积平均缩小3.25平方米,这两种溢出效应均随着距离的增大而逐渐减弱;空间上产生了虹吸效应,表现为3公里之外的新房价格下降了35.56%,套均面积则平均增加了3.40平方米;虽然地铁的出现对周边住房面积的负效应在一定程度上抵消了其对单价的正效应,但地铁导致的周边住房总价上涨幅度依然显著,1公里范围内住房总价平均上涨了24.82%。本文的研究对于公共服务资本化、公平合理地实现土地增值收益分配都有很重要的启示。
The spillover effects of public transportation on housing price has been studied extensively, but a structural effect is put forward first in this paper. To check these structural effects, we set up theoretical models and prove that the spillover effects of subway on housing market are reflected in not only housing price increasing,but also housing area decreasing. Moreover, the emergence of subway reallocates the demand of housing market,which especially shows as the siphon effects of subway-house on non-subway-house. Then we apply a differencein-differences analysis to all first-hand-house transactions in Shanghai from 2012 to 2015 and find that, while the announcement of subway planning causes an increase of 26.49% in housing price and a decrease of 3.25 m2 in area within 1 km of stations, the spillover effect reverses outside the region, which show as a 35.56% decrease in price and a 3.36 m2 increase in area 3 km beyond stations. Though the decrease in area partly balances the increase in price, the total price of a house also has a rise of 24.82% within 1 km of stations after announcement.Our study makes great contribution to the capitalization of public service and the distribution of land appreciation.
The spillover effects of public transportation on housing price has been studied extensively, but a structural effect is put forward first in this paper. To check these structural effects, we set up theoretical models and prove that the spillover effects of subway on housing market are reflected in not only housing price increasing,but also housing area decreasing. Moreover, the emergence of subway reallocates the demand of housing market,which especially shows as the siphon effects of subway-house on non-subway-house. Then we apply a differencein-differences analysis to all first-hand-house transactions in Shanghai from 2012 to 2015 and find that, while the announcement of subway planning causes an increase of 26.49% in housing price and a decrease of 3.25 m2 in area within 1 km of stations, the spillover effect reverses outside the region, which show as a 35.56% decrease in price and a 3.36 m2 increase in area 3 km beyond stations. Though the decrease in area partly balances the increase in price, the total price of a house also has a rise of 24.82% within 1 km of stations after announcement.Our study makes great contribution to the capitalization of public service and the distribution of land appreciation.
引文
[1]冯长春,李维瑄,赵蕃蕃.轨道交通对其沿线商品住宅价格的影响分析——以北京地铁5号线为例[J].地理学报,2011,(8):1055-1062.
[2]高晓晖,刘芳.轨道交通对住宅价格的影响——以上海市为例[J].城市问题,2011,(12):41-46.
[3]谷一桢,徐治乙.轨道交通对房地产价值影响研究综述[J].城市问题,2007,(12):45-50.
[4]谷一桢,郑思齐.轨道交通对住宅价格和土地开发强度的影响——以北京市13号线为例[J].地理学报,2010,(2):213-223.
[5]郝前进,陈杰.到CBD距离、交通可达性与上海住宅价格的地理空间差异[J].世界经济文汇,2007,(1):22-35.
[6]刘浩,马琳.1992—2013年京津冀地区经济发展失衡的溢出效应[J].经济问题探索,2016,(11):59-66.
[7]刘涛,曹广忠.大都市区外来人口居住地选择的区域差异与尺度效应——基于北京市村级数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2015,(1):30-40.
[8]张克中,陶东杰.交通基础设施的经济分布效应——来自高铁开通的证据[J].经济学动态,2016,(6):62-73.
[9]张学波,陈思宇,廖聪,宋金平.京津冀地区经济发展的空间溢出效应[J].地理研究,2016,(9):1753-1766.
[10]郑思齐,曹洋.居住与就业空间关系的决定机理和影响因素——对北京市通勤时间和通勤流量的实证研究[J].城市发展研究,2009,(6):29-35.
[11]Agostini,C.A.,and G.A.Palmucci.The Anticipated Capitalization Effect of a New Metro Line on Housing Prices[J].Fiscal Studies,2008,29(2):233-256.
[12]Almosaind,M.,K.Dueker,and J.Strathman.Light-Rail Transit Stations and Property Values:A Hedonic Price Approach[J].Transportation Research Record,1993,(1400):90-94.
[13]Bae,C.H.C.,M.J.Jun,and H.Park.The Impact of Seoul’s Subway Line 5 on Residential Property Values[J].Transport Policy,2003,10(2):85-94.
[14]Barnes,G.The Importance of Trip Destination in Determining Transit Share[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2005,8(2):1-15.
[15]Benjamin,J.D.,and G.S.Sirmans.Mass Transportation,Apartment Rent and Property Values[J].Journal of Real Estate Research,1996,12(1):1-8.
[16]Billings,S.Estimating the Value of a New Transit Option[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2011,41(6):525-536.
[17]Bollinger,C.R.,and K.R.Ihlanfeldt.The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development:The Case of Atlanta’s MARTA[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1997,42(2):179-204.
[18]Bowes,D.R.,and K.R.Ihlanfeldt.Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2001,50(1):1-25.
[19]Cervero,R.Effects of Light and Commuter Rail Transit on Land Prices:Experiences in San Diego County[J].Journal of the Transportation Research Forum,2010,43(1):121-138.
[20]Cervero,R.,and J.Landis.Assessing the Impacts of Urban Rail Transit on Local Real Estate Markets Using Quasi-experimental Comparisons[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1993,27(1):13-22.
[21]Cervero,R.,S.Murphy,C.Ferrell et al.Transit-Oriented Development in the United States:Experiences,Challenges,and Prospects[J].Bmc Research Notes,2004,8(1):1-7.
[22]Cheape,C.Evolution of Urban Public Transit,1880—1912:A Study of Boston,New York and Philadelphia[J].Journal of Economic History,1976,36(1):259-262.
[23]Chen,Jie,and Qianjin Hao.Submarket,Heterogeneity and Hedonic Prediction Accuracy of Real Estate Prices:Evidence from Shanghai[J].International Real Estate Review,2010,13(2):190-217.
[24]Du,H.,and C.Mulley.Relationship between Transport Accessibility and Land Value:Local Model Approach with Geographically Weighted Regression[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2006,1977(25):197-205.
[25]Gatzlaff,D.H.,and M.T.Smith.The Impact of the Miami Metrorail on the Value of Residences Near Station Locations[J].Land Economics,1993,69(1):54-66.
[26]Gonzalez-Navarro,M.,and M.A.Turner.Subways and Urban Growth:Evidence from Earth[R].SERC Discussion Paper,2016.
[27]Ke,S.Determinants of Economic Growth and Spread–backwash Effects in Western and Eastern China[J].Asian Economic Journal,2010,24(2):179-202.
[28]Mc Donald,J.F.,and C.I.Osuji.The Effect of Anticipated Transportation Improvement on Residential Land Values[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25(3):261-278.
[29]Rosen,S.Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets:Product Differentiation in Pure Competition[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(1):34-55.
[30]Zheng,S.,and M.E.Kahn.Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification?Evidence from Beijing[J].Real Estate Economics,2013,41(1):1-28.
(1)数据来自《2016年度中国主要城市交通分析报告》,以每天通勤两小时为基准计算。
(2)据上海市交通委员会统计,2014年上海市轨道交通的客运量占全市公共交通客运总量的42.9%,达日均775万人次,同时期北京市的地铁客流量还要大于上海,为日均849万人次。
(3)数据来自《城市轨道交通2015年度统计分析报告》。
(1)由于2015年的样本数据只到8月,所以与统计数据差距较大。
(2)由于单条线路建设周期较长,各站点开工时间不一,所以本文将某条线路的首次破土动工的日期认定为该线路全线的开建日期。
(1)以上三类站点的统计均不包括已开通站点新增线路的情况。
(2)这里的匹配不考虑交易时间和站点出现时间的前后关系,部分住房所匹配的最近站点在其交易完成时尚未发布规划。
(1)由于上海市一般公共服务普及程度较高,所以本文采用了更高标准的公共服务来凸显区位上的异质性,其中公园为上海市绿化和市容管理局公布的星级公园,医院为三甲医院,学校为重点小学和初中。
[2]高晓晖,刘芳.轨道交通对住宅价格的影响——以上海市为例[J].城市问题,2011,(12):41-46.
[3]谷一桢,徐治乙.轨道交通对房地产价值影响研究综述[J].城市问题,2007,(12):45-50.
[4]谷一桢,郑思齐.轨道交通对住宅价格和土地开发强度的影响——以北京市13号线为例[J].地理学报,2010,(2):213-223.
[5]郝前进,陈杰.到CBD距离、交通可达性与上海住宅价格的地理空间差异[J].世界经济文汇,2007,(1):22-35.
[6]刘浩,马琳.1992—2013年京津冀地区经济发展失衡的溢出效应[J].经济问题探索,2016,(11):59-66.
[7]刘涛,曹广忠.大都市区外来人口居住地选择的区域差异与尺度效应——基于北京市村级数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2015,(1):30-40.
[8]张克中,陶东杰.交通基础设施的经济分布效应——来自高铁开通的证据[J].经济学动态,2016,(6):62-73.
[9]张学波,陈思宇,廖聪,宋金平.京津冀地区经济发展的空间溢出效应[J].地理研究,2016,(9):1753-1766.
[10]郑思齐,曹洋.居住与就业空间关系的决定机理和影响因素——对北京市通勤时间和通勤流量的实证研究[J].城市发展研究,2009,(6):29-35.
[11]Agostini,C.A.,and G.A.Palmucci.The Anticipated Capitalization Effect of a New Metro Line on Housing Prices[J].Fiscal Studies,2008,29(2):233-256.
[12]Almosaind,M.,K.Dueker,and J.Strathman.Light-Rail Transit Stations and Property Values:A Hedonic Price Approach[J].Transportation Research Record,1993,(1400):90-94.
[13]Bae,C.H.C.,M.J.Jun,and H.Park.The Impact of Seoul’s Subway Line 5 on Residential Property Values[J].Transport Policy,2003,10(2):85-94.
[14]Barnes,G.The Importance of Trip Destination in Determining Transit Share[J].Journal of Public Transportation,2005,8(2):1-15.
[15]Benjamin,J.D.,and G.S.Sirmans.Mass Transportation,Apartment Rent and Property Values[J].Journal of Real Estate Research,1996,12(1):1-8.
[16]Billings,S.Estimating the Value of a New Transit Option[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2011,41(6):525-536.
[17]Bollinger,C.R.,and K.R.Ihlanfeldt.The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development:The Case of Atlanta’s MARTA[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1997,42(2):179-204.
[18]Bowes,D.R.,and K.R.Ihlanfeldt.Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2001,50(1):1-25.
[19]Cervero,R.Effects of Light and Commuter Rail Transit on Land Prices:Experiences in San Diego County[J].Journal of the Transportation Research Forum,2010,43(1):121-138.
[20]Cervero,R.,and J.Landis.Assessing the Impacts of Urban Rail Transit on Local Real Estate Markets Using Quasi-experimental Comparisons[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,1993,27(1):13-22.
[21]Cervero,R.,S.Murphy,C.Ferrell et al.Transit-Oriented Development in the United States:Experiences,Challenges,and Prospects[J].Bmc Research Notes,2004,8(1):1-7.
[22]Cheape,C.Evolution of Urban Public Transit,1880—1912:A Study of Boston,New York and Philadelphia[J].Journal of Economic History,1976,36(1):259-262.
[23]Chen,Jie,and Qianjin Hao.Submarket,Heterogeneity and Hedonic Prediction Accuracy of Real Estate Prices:Evidence from Shanghai[J].International Real Estate Review,2010,13(2):190-217.
[24]Du,H.,and C.Mulley.Relationship between Transport Accessibility and Land Value:Local Model Approach with Geographically Weighted Regression[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2006,1977(25):197-205.
[25]Gatzlaff,D.H.,and M.T.Smith.The Impact of the Miami Metrorail on the Value of Residences Near Station Locations[J].Land Economics,1993,69(1):54-66.
[26]Gonzalez-Navarro,M.,and M.A.Turner.Subways and Urban Growth:Evidence from Earth[R].SERC Discussion Paper,2016.
[27]Ke,S.Determinants of Economic Growth and Spread–backwash Effects in Western and Eastern China[J].Asian Economic Journal,2010,24(2):179-202.
[28]Mc Donald,J.F.,and C.I.Osuji.The Effect of Anticipated Transportation Improvement on Residential Land Values[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25(3):261-278.
[29]Rosen,S.Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets:Product Differentiation in Pure Competition[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(1):34-55.
[30]Zheng,S.,and M.E.Kahn.Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification?Evidence from Beijing[J].Real Estate Economics,2013,41(1):1-28.
(1)数据来自《2016年度中国主要城市交通分析报告》,以每天通勤两小时为基准计算。
(2)据上海市交通委员会统计,2014年上海市轨道交通的客运量占全市公共交通客运总量的42.9%,达日均775万人次,同时期北京市的地铁客流量还要大于上海,为日均849万人次。
(3)数据来自《城市轨道交通2015年度统计分析报告》。
(1)由于2015年的样本数据只到8月,所以与统计数据差距较大。
(2)由于单条线路建设周期较长,各站点开工时间不一,所以本文将某条线路的首次破土动工的日期认定为该线路全线的开建日期。
(1)以上三类站点的统计均不包括已开通站点新增线路的情况。
(2)这里的匹配不考虑交易时间和站点出现时间的前后关系,部分住房所匹配的最近站点在其交易完成时尚未发布规划。
(1)由于上海市一般公共服务普及程度较高,所以本文采用了更高标准的公共服务来凸显区位上的异质性,其中公园为上海市绿化和市容管理局公布的星级公园,医院为三甲医院,学校为重点小学和初中。