草地贪夜蛾在云南的潜在适生区分析及经济损失预测
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摘要
【目的】分析草地贪夜蛾[Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E. Smith)]在云南省的潜在适生区,预测其可能给云南农业造成的损失,为进一步开展草地贪夜蛾防控提供依据。【方法】采用MaxEnt最大熵生态位模型,运用已知分布点数据和环境变量数据模拟草地贪夜蛾在云南的潜在适生概率,将结果导入ArcGIS 10.5进行重采样并进行相关分析。根据云南省统计年鉴中2017年主要农作物面积和产量数据,运用市场价格法初步建立草地贪夜蛾危害损失模型,对草地贪夜蛾入侵云南后可能造成的经济损失进行预测。【结果】草地贪夜蛾在云南的适生区范围广泛,其高适生区面积达17.85万km2,约占云南省国土面积的50%;中度适生区和低适生区面积分别为16.09万和5.06万km2。环境变量中,年平均温度对预测草地贪夜蛾潜在分布的贡献最大,其次为最干季度降水、最冷季度平均温和最干月份降水,昼夜温差月值对草地贪夜蛾分布的影响较小。草地贪夜蛾在玉米、烤烟、薯类和甘蔗4类主要农作物10%发生面积水平上可能对云南农业造成的经济损失高达3.95亿～8.94亿元人民币。【结论】草地贪夜蛾几乎能在云南全境适生,目前已扩散至全省120余个县,给云南省农业带来巨大威胁。应进一步加大对草地贪夜蛾的防控力度,严密监测虫情动态,在采取农药防治的基础上开展生物防治等其他控制措施,避免其暴发成灾。
【Objective】In order to provide basis for further control and prevention of Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E.Smith),the potential habitat of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province and the possible losses which were caused by S. frugiperda to agriculture of Yunnan Province were predicted.【Method】MaxEnt maximum entropy niche model was used to simulate the potential fitness probability of S. frugiperda in Yunnan by using known distribution point data and environmental variable data. The results were imported into ArcGIS 10.5 software for resampling and correlation analysis. According the area and yield data of main crops in 2017,and using the market price method,the damage loss model of S. frugiperda was preliminarily established,and the possible economic losses caused by S. frugiperda were predicted.【Result】The results showed that the suitable habitats of S. frugiperda were widespread in Yunnan,and the highly suitable habitats(178500 km2)accounted for nearly 50% of the total land area of Yunnan. The medium suitable habitats and less suitable habitats were 160900 and 50600 km2. Among the environmental variables,the annual mean temperature contributed the most to the potential distribution of S. frugiperda,followed by the precipitation of driest season,the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the driest month,and mean diurnal range had less effects on the distribution of S. frugiperda. The possible economic losses on corn,tobacco,tuber and sugarcane at the 10% occurrence area level were as high as 395-894 million yuan.【Conclusion】S. frugiperda is suitable for almost the whole area of Yunnan. It has colonized and spread in more than 120 counties in Yunnan,which poses a great threat to the agriculture of Yunnan. In order to control the spread and harm of the S. frugiperda,the parties concerned should further strengthen the prevention and control efforts,closely monitor the dynamics of the insect situation,and actively carry out biological control and natural enemy control on the basis of pesticide control,so as to avoid the outbreak of disasters.
【Objective】In order to provide basis for further control and prevention of Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E.Smith),the potential habitat of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province and the possible losses which were caused by S. frugiperda to agriculture of Yunnan Province were predicted.【Method】MaxEnt maximum entropy niche model was used to simulate the potential fitness probability of S. frugiperda in Yunnan by using known distribution point data and environmental variable data. The results were imported into ArcGIS 10.5 software for resampling and correlation analysis. According the area and yield data of main crops in 2017,and using the market price method,the damage loss model of S. frugiperda was preliminarily established,and the possible economic losses caused by S. frugiperda were predicted.【Result】The results showed that the suitable habitats of S. frugiperda were widespread in Yunnan,and the highly suitable habitats(178500 km2)accounted for nearly 50% of the total land area of Yunnan. The medium suitable habitats and less suitable habitats were 160900 and 50600 km2. Among the environmental variables,the annual mean temperature contributed the most to the potential distribution of S. frugiperda,followed by the precipitation of driest season,the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the driest month,and mean diurnal range had less effects on the distribution of S. frugiperda. The possible economic losses on corn,tobacco,tuber and sugarcane at the 10% occurrence area level were as high as 395-894 million yuan.【Conclusion】S. frugiperda is suitable for almost the whole area of Yunnan. It has colonized and spread in more than 120 counties in Yunnan,which poses a great threat to the agriculture of Yunnan. In order to control the spread and harm of the S. frugiperda,the parties concerned should further strengthen the prevention and control efforts,closely monitor the dynamics of the insect situation,and actively carry out biological control and natural enemy control on the basis of pesticide control,so as to avoid the outbreak of disasters.
引文
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李国平,姬婷婕,孙小旭,姜玉英,吴孔明,封洪强.2019.入侵云南草地贪夜蛾种群对5种常用Bt蛋白的敏感性评价[J].植物保护,45(3):15-20.[Li G P,Ji T J,Sun X X,Jiang Y Y,Wu K M,Feng H Q.2019.Susceptibility evaluation of invaded Spodoptera frugiperda population in Yunnan Province to five Bt proteins[J].Plant Protection,45(3):15-20.]
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喜超,木霖,李胜,岳英,和淑琪,桂富荣,刘梦然.2018.基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测大薸在云南的潜在适生区[J].云南农业大学学报(自然科学),33(1):7-16.[Xi C,Mu L,Li S,Yue Y,He S Q,Gui F R,Liu M R.2018.MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS for predicting the potential distribution of Pistia stratiotes L.in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Natural Science),33(1):7-16.]
新华社.2019.我国科学家完成草地贪夜蛾染色体级别的基因组测序和组装[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1636765570192028753&wfr=spider&for=pc.[Xinhua News Agency.2019.Genome sequencing and assembly of the chromosome level of Spodoptera litura by Chinese scientists[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1636765570192028753&wfr=spider&for=pc.]
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Day R,Abrahams P,Bateman M,Beale T,Clottey V,Cock M,Colmenarez Y,Corniani N,Early R,Godwin J,Gomez J,Moreno P G,Murphy S T,Oppong-Mensah B,Phiri N,Pratt C,Silvestri S,Witt A.2017.Fall armyworm:Impacts and implications for Africa[J].Outlooks on Pest Management,28(5):196-201.
EPPO/CABI.1997.Quarantine oests for europe[M].The 2nd Edition.Wal-lingford:CAB International:668-673.
FAO(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations),CABI(Centre Agriculture Bioscience International).2019.Community-based fall armyworm(Spodoptera frugiperda)monitoring,early warning and managementTraining of trainers manual[R].Italy:Rome:38-43.
Fleischer S J,Harding C L,Blom P E,White J,Grehan J.2005.Spodoptera frugiperda pheromone lures to avoid nontarget captures of Leucania phragmatidicola[J].Journal of Economic Entomology,98(1):66-71.
Robinson G S,Ackery P R,Kitching I J,Beccaloni G W,Hernández L M.2008.HOSTS-a database of the world’s Lepidopteran hostplants[DB].The Natural History Museum,London.http://www.nhm.ac.uk/research-curation/projects/hostplants/.
光明日报.2019.我国科学家研究防控草地贪夜蛾有新进展[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://gmrb.cloud.gmw.cn/gmrb/html/2019-06/19/content_36881.htm?from=timeline.[Guang Ming Daily.2019.New progress in research and control of noctuid moth in grassland by Chinese scientists[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://gmrb.cloud.gmw.cn/gmrb/html/2019-06/19/content_36881.htm?from=timeline.]
郭井菲,赵建周,何康来,张峰,王振营.2018.警惕危险性害虫草地贪夜蛾入侵中国[J].植物保护,44(6):1-10.[Guo J F,Zhao J Z,He K L,Zhang F,Wang Z Y.2018.Potential invasion of the crop-devastating insect pest fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda to China[J].Plant Protection,44(6):1-10.]
韩士里,穆敬芳,张永丽,陈新文,王云,黎路林.2012.草地贪夜蛾Sf9细胞系Arp2/3-p40/ARPC1亚基基因的克隆与功能研究[J].病毒学报,28(6):601-608.[Han S L,Mu JF,Zhang Y L,Chen X W,Wang Y,Li L L.2012.Cloning and functional research of Arp2/3-P40/ARPC1 subunit of Sf9 cells[J].Chinese Journal of Virology,28(6):601-608.]
李国平,姬婷婕,孙小旭,姜玉英,吴孔明,封洪强.2019.入侵云南草地贪夜蛾种群对5种常用Bt蛋白的敏感性评价[J].植物保护,45(3):15-20.[Li G P,Ji T J,Sun X X,Jiang Y Y,Wu K M,Feng H Q.2019.Susceptibility evaluation of invaded Spodoptera frugiperda population in Yunnan Province to five Bt proteins[J].Plant Protection,45(3):15-20.]
全国农技中心.2019.重大害虫草地贪夜蛾已侵入云南各地要立即开展调查监测[EB/OL].(2019-01-24).https://www.natesc.org.cn/Html/2019_01_29/28092_151760_2019_01_29_457209.html.[National Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center.2019.Investigation and surveillance should be carried out immediately for the noctuid moth,a major pest in grassland,which has invaded all parts of Yunnan Province[EB/OL].(2019-01-24).https://www.natesc.org.cn/Html/2019_01_29/28092_151760_2019_01_29_457209.html.]
王雷宏,杨俊仙,黄成林.2013.用MaxEnt模拟湖北海棠(Malus hupehensis)地理分布[J].安徽农业大学学报,40(3):383-386.[Wang L H,Yang J X,Huang C L.2013.Modelling geographic distribution of Malus hupehensis with MaxEnt[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural University,40(3):383-386.]
吴秋琳,姜玉英,胡高,吴孔明.2019.中国热带和南亚热带地区草地贪夜蛾春夏两季迁飞轨迹的分析[J].植物保护,45(3):1-9.[Wu Q L,Jiang Y Y,Hu G,Wu K M.2019.Analysis on spring and summer migration routes of fall armyworm(Spodoptera frugiperda)from tropical and southern subtropical zones of China[J].Plant Protection,45(3):1-9.]
喜超,木霖,李胜,岳英,和淑琪,桂富荣,刘梦然.2018.基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测大薸在云南的潜在适生区[J].云南农业大学学报(自然科学),33(1):7-16.[Xi C,Mu L,Li S,Yue Y,He S Q,Gui F R,Liu M R.2018.MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS for predicting the potential distribution of Pistia stratiotes L.in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Natural Science),33(1):7-16.]
新华社.2019.我国科学家完成草地贪夜蛾染色体级别的基因组测序和组装[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1636765570192028753&wfr=spider&for=pc.[Xinhua News Agency.2019.Genome sequencing and assembly of the chromosome level of Spodoptera litura by Chinese scientists[EB/OL].(2019-06-19).https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1636765570192028753&wfr=spider&for=pc.]
云南省统计局.2018.云南统计年鉴-2018[M].北京:中国统计出版社.[Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics.2018.Yunnan statistical yearbook-2018[M].Beijing:The Statistics Publishing House of China.]
张来喜,杨宝东,张民照,王进忠,张爱环,张志勇.2011.斑蝥素诱导草地贪夜蛾(Spodoptera frugiperda)卵巢细胞系Sf9凋亡的临界条件[J].北京农学院学报,26(2):14-17.[Zhang L X,Yang B D,Zhang M Z,Wang J Z,Zhang AH,Zhang Z Y.2011.Critical condition of apoptosis of Spodoptera frugiperda Sf9 cells lead by cantharidin[J].Journal of Beijing University of Agriculture,26(2):14-17.]
Day R,Abrahams P,Bateman M,Beale T,Clottey V,Cock M,Colmenarez Y,Corniani N,Early R,Godwin J,Gomez J,Moreno P G,Murphy S T,Oppong-Mensah B,Phiri N,Pratt C,Silvestri S,Witt A.2017.Fall armyworm:Impacts and implications for Africa[J].Outlooks on Pest Management,28(5):196-201.
EPPO/CABI.1997.Quarantine oests for europe[M].The 2nd Edition.Wal-lingford:CAB International:668-673.
FAO(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations),CABI(Centre Agriculture Bioscience International).2019.Community-based fall armyworm(Spodoptera frugiperda)monitoring,early warning and managementTraining of trainers manual[R].Italy:Rome:38-43.
Fleischer S J,Harding C L,Blom P E,White J,Grehan J.2005.Spodoptera frugiperda pheromone lures to avoid nontarget captures of Leucania phragmatidicola[J].Journal of Economic Entomology,98(1):66-71.
Robinson G S,Ackery P R,Kitching I J,Beccaloni G W,Hernández L M.2008.HOSTS-a database of the world’s Lepidopteran hostplants[DB].The Natural History Museum,London.http://www.nhm.ac.uk/research-curation/projects/hostplants/.