类“余额宝”金融产品对银行系统稳定性的影响
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摘要
作为一种全新的互联网金融产品,"余额宝"一经推出,便在短期内吸纳了巨量的活期资金,其超预期表现也引起了银行业的高度关注。构建了具有"余额宝"的多Agent动态银行网络系统模型,研究了"余额宝"类金融产品对我国银行系统稳定性的影响。研究结果表明,"余额宝"对银行系统稳定性的影响主要受两个参数控制,即银行间连接度及存款转移比例("余额宝"吸纳的活期存款占银行活期存款的比例)。当银行间连接度较小时,"余额宝"的存在有利于银行系统的稳定,此时存在一个有利于银行系统稳定的最优的存款转移比例,而且该最优存款转移比例随着银行间连接度的增大而减小;当银行间连接度太大时,"余额宝"的存在不利于银行系统的稳定。从银行间流动性角度分析了上述"余额宝"对银行网络系统稳定性的影响以及最优存款转移比例。
As a brand-new Internet financial product, Yu'ebao absorbed a huge amount of current funds in a very short period of time, and its ultra-expected performance also attracted great attention and consideration in the banking industry, as soon as it was launched. In the present paper, a multi-agent dynamical bank network system model with Yu'ebao was constructed, and the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system in China was studied. The results show that the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system is controlled by two parameters: the connectivity and the deposit transfer ratio(the ratio of deposits in the banking system shifted to Yu'ebao). When the connectivity of the interbank market is low, Yu'ebao is propitious to the stability of the banking system. At same time, there exists an optimal deposit transfer ratio that makes the banking system more stable, which decreases as the connectivity increases. When the connectivity of the interbank market is high, Yu'ebao is not beneficial to the stability of the banking system. Furthermore, the above results were analyzed from the view of liquidity to find the reasons for the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system and the optimal deposit transfer ratio.
As a brand-new Internet financial product, Yu'ebao absorbed a huge amount of current funds in a very short period of time, and its ultra-expected performance also attracted great attention and consideration in the banking industry, as soon as it was launched. In the present paper, a multi-agent dynamical bank network system model with Yu'ebao was constructed, and the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system in China was studied. The results show that the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system is controlled by two parameters: the connectivity and the deposit transfer ratio(the ratio of deposits in the banking system shifted to Yu'ebao). When the connectivity of the interbank market is low, Yu'ebao is propitious to the stability of the banking system. At same time, there exists an optimal deposit transfer ratio that makes the banking system more stable, which decreases as the connectivity increases. When the connectivity of the interbank market is high, Yu'ebao is not beneficial to the stability of the banking system. Furthermore, the above results were analyzed from the view of liquidity to find the reasons for the effect of Yu'ebao on the stability of the banking system and the optimal deposit transfer ratio.
引文
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[16] 马丹青,杨佩茹,耿成轩.“余额宝”对国有大型商业银行存款业务的影响[J].中国经贸导刊,2015(20):31-33.
[17] 郑椒瑾.互联网理财时代“余额宝”对商业银行的影响分析[J].中国市场,2014(31):84-85.
[18] 邱勋.“余额宝”对商业银行的影响和启示[J].新金融,2013(9):50-54.
[19] 马广奇,赵芬芬.“余额宝”的金融创新及其影响分析[J].武汉金融,2014(3):24-25.
[20] 贾志丽.““余额宝“”类互联网金融产品对金融机构影响座谈会会议综述[J].金融会计,2014(4):24-27.
[21] 陈嘉欣,王健康.互联网金融理财产品“余额宝”对商业银行业务的影响——基于事件分析法的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):167-173.
[2] Kaufman G G.Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk:Lessons from recent events [J].Economic Perspectives,2000,24(3):9-28.
[3] Kaufman G G,Scott K E.What is systemic risk,and do bank regulators retard or contribute to it?[J].Independent Review,2003,7(3):371-391.
[4] Jin Y,Zheng Z X.Banking risk and macroeconomic fluctuations [J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2014,48:350-360.
[5] Poledna S,Molina-Borboa J L,Martinez-Jaramillo S,et al.The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises [J].Journal of Financial Stability,2015,20:70-81.
[6] Kupiec P H,Ramirez C D.Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk:Evidence from 1990 to 1930[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2013,22(3):285-307.
[7] Allen F,Gale D.Financial contagion [J].Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(1):1-33.
[8] Babus A.Financial development,integration and stability[M].UK:Edward Elgar Publishing,2006.
[9] Li Shouwei.Contagion risk in an evolving network model of banking systems [J].Advances in Complex Systems,2011,14(5):673-690.
[10] Castiglionesi F.Financial contagion and the role of the central bank [J].Journal of Banking & Finance,2007,31(1):81-101.
[11] Hasman A,Samartín M.Information acquisition and financial contagion[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,2008,32(10):2136-2147.
[12] Iori G,Jafarey S,Padilla F G.Systemic risk on the interbank market [J].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2006,61(4):525-542.
[13] Georg C P,Poschmann J.Systemic risk in a network model of interbank markets with central bank activity[R].Jena Economic Research Papers,2010.
[14] Georg C P.The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks [J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2013,37(7):2216-2228.
[15] 童牧,何奕.系统外部效应与流动性救助策略:大额支付系统中的系统风险[J].系统管理学报,2013,22 (5):619-628.
[16] 马丹青,杨佩茹,耿成轩.“余额宝”对国有大型商业银行存款业务的影响[J].中国经贸导刊,2015(20):31-33.
[17] 郑椒瑾.互联网理财时代“余额宝”对商业银行的影响分析[J].中国市场,2014(31):84-85.
[18] 邱勋.“余额宝”对商业银行的影响和启示[J].新金融,2013(9):50-54.
[19] 马广奇,赵芬芬.“余额宝”的金融创新及其影响分析[J].武汉金融,2014(3):24-25.
[20] 贾志丽.““余额宝“”类互联网金融产品对金融机构影响座谈会会议综述[J].金融会计,2014(4):24-27.
[21] 陈嘉欣,王健康.互联网金融理财产品“余额宝”对商业银行业务的影响——基于事件分析法的研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):167-173.