信息披露质量、券商行业专长与分析师预测准确性
摘要
以2003—2014年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,考察券商行业专长对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响以及公司信息披露质量对二者关系的调节作用。研究结果发现:券商行业专长能显著提升分析师盈余预测准确性;被预测公司高质量的信息披露会弱化券商行业专长对分析师预测准确性的影响。经过改变券商行业专长衡量方式、利用分析师跳槽外生事件等一系列稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立。此外,还发现,在分析师盈余预测准确性一定的情况下,分析师行业专长对券商行业专长具有替代作用。
引文
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[11] CHAN K,HAMEED A.Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2006,80(1):115-147.
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[14]白晓宇.上市公司信息披露政策对分析师预测的多重影响研究[J].金融研究,2009(4):92-112.
[15]CLEMENT M B.Analyst forecast accuracy:do ability,resources,and portfolio complexity matter?[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,1999,27(3):285-303.
[16]刘永泽,高嵩.信息披露质量、分析师行业专长与预测准确性——来自我国深市A股的经验证据[J].会计研究,2014(12):60-65.
[17] KUMAR A.Self-selection and forecasting abilities of female equity analysts[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2010,48(2):393-435.
[18]施先旺,李志刚,刘拯.分析师个体特征差异与预测准确度[J].会计之友,2015(8):53-58.
[2] CLEMENT M B,TSE S Y.Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting[J].The Journal of Finance,2005,60(1):307-341.
[3] HUGON A,MUSLU V.Market demand for conservative analysts[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2010,50(1):42-57.
[4]董大勇,张尉,赖晓东,等.谁领先发布:中国证券分析师领先——跟随影响因素的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2012(5):56-63.
[5]伊志宏,李颖,江轩宇.女性分析师关注与股价同步性[J].金融研究,2015(11):175-189.
[6]BROWN L D,CALL A C,CLEMENT M B,et al.Inside the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2015,53(1):1-47.
[7] STICKEL S E.The anatomy of the performance of buy and sell recommendations[J].Financial Analysts Journal,1995,51(5):25-39.
[8] BONNER S E,HUGON A,WALTHER B R.Investor reaction to celebrity analysts:The case of earnings forecast revisions[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2007,45(3):481-513.
[9]LOH R K,STULZ R M.When are analyst recommendation changes influential?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2010,24(2):593-627.
[10]李丽青.分析师盈利预测能表征“市场预期盈利”吗?——来自中国A股市场的经验证据[J].南开管理评论,2012(6):44-50.
[11] CHAN K,HAMEED A.Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2006,80(1):115-147.
[12] DHALIWAL D S,RADHAKRISHNAN S,TSANG A,et al.Nonfinancial disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy:international evidence on corporate social responsibility disclosure[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(3):723-759.
[13]方军雄.所有制、制度环境与信贷资金配置[J].经济研究,2007(12):82-92.
[14]白晓宇.上市公司信息披露政策对分析师预测的多重影响研究[J].金融研究,2009(4):92-112.
[15]CLEMENT M B.Analyst forecast accuracy:do ability,resources,and portfolio complexity matter?[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,1999,27(3):285-303.
[16]刘永泽,高嵩.信息披露质量、分析师行业专长与预测准确性——来自我国深市A股的经验证据[J].会计研究,2014(12):60-65.
[17] KUMAR A.Self-selection and forecasting abilities of female equity analysts[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2010,48(2):393-435.
[18]施先旺,李志刚,刘拯.分析师个体特征差异与预测准确度[J].会计之友,2015(8):53-58.