木本粮油补贴政策实际效果分析及其经济学解释
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摘要
【目的】激励农户扩大木本粮油种植面积,提高生产效率,缓解粮油安全问题是木本粮油补贴政策的主要目标。确定木本粮油补贴政策在主产省份的实施效果,并从农户行为响应的视角构建理论模型验证政策效果,有助于探究木本粮油补贴政策的实施效果及其理论机制,从而为制定针对性更强和效率更高的木本粮油补贴政策提供科学依据。【方法】首先,基于调查研究法,梳理木本粮油补贴政策的主要内容;其次,利用访谈问卷调查法,实地调研木本粮油主产省的补贴政策实施和产业发展情况,归纳出木本粮油补贴政策的实际效果。在此基础上,将木本粮油市场看作完全竞争市场,构建理论模型分析木本粮油补贴政策对市场均衡的影响、对不同规模农户的影响以及对生产效率的影响,并通过对木本粮油种植户规模的区分,研究木本粮油补贴政策对不同规模种植户生产行为和生产效率的影响,为补贴政策实施的实际效果提供经济学解释。【结果】1)木本粮油补贴政策实施后,主要种植地区木本粮油种植面积大幅度增加。2)板栗、枣、核桃、油茶等大部分木本粮油产品市场价格呈现下降趋势。3)木本粮油新型林业经营组织增多,单户种植规模扩大,规模集中效应明显。4)主要针对种植面积的一次性资金补贴难以有效改进"重造轻管"问题,对木本粮油生产率提高效果有限。5)在农业补贴标准和造林成本不断提高的背景下,木本粮油补贴标准偏低且缺乏及时调整弱化了激励效果。【结论】1)木本粮油补贴政策对扩大木本粮油种植规模具有积极作用,继续实施木本粮油补贴政策具有必要性,但应实现补贴的连续性,低产林改造补贴适当倾斜小规模种植户。2)造林补贴为主的木本粮油补贴政策导致"重造轻管",对木本粮油生产率的提高效果有限。应逐步对林业补贴政策由造林补贴为主向抚育管理补贴调整。3)最低补贴面积太高或补贴标准太低造成小规模种植户种植规模的减少和福利的损失。应扩大资金来源渠道,提高补贴标准。4)只同种植面积挂钩的生产环节补贴政策使大规模种植户的生产效率低于小规模种植户,应通过补贴条件设置引导适度规模经营,提高边际生产率。
【Objective 】 Encouraging farmers to expand the growing areas of woody grains and oil seeds plants,improving the production efficiency and thus easing the grain and oil security problem are the main policy objectives of subsidies for woody grain and oil plants.Determining the effects of subsidies for the woody grain and oil plants in the main producing provinces,and constructing a theoretical model to verify the effectiveness of the policy from the perspective of farmers' behavior response can help to explore the effects and the theoretical mechanism of the subsidy policy.These answers can provide a scientific evidence for the development of more targeted and more efficient woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy.【Method】Firstly,based on the investigations and researches,the main contents of the woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy were reviewed.Secondly,surveys by interviews and questionnaires were used to investigate the implementation of subsidy policy and industrial development of woody grain and oil plants in the main producing provinces,and summarize the practical effects of the subsidy policy.On this basis,assuming the woody grain and oil product market as a perfectly competitive market,we construct theoretical models to analyze the effects of the subsidy policy on the market equilibrium,on the production behaviors of different scale of farmers and on the production efficiencyrespectively.Besides,by distinguishing different scale growers of woody grain and oil plants,we analyze the effects of the implementation of woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy on the production behavior and efficiency for different scale of growers.The results were used to provide economic explanations for the actual effects of the implementation of subsidy policy.【Result】 The results show that: 1) After the implementation of the woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy,the planting areas have been greatly increased in the main producing provinces.2) The prices of main woody grain and oil plants such as Chinese chestnut,jujube,walnut,oil-tea camellia have showed a downward trend.3) The number of new management organizations of woody grain and oil plants have increased,and the planting scale of single household is expanding,which contribute to the obvious scale concentration effect.4) The one-time funding subsidy form which is mainly linked to the planting areas is difficult to effectively improve the problem of "emphasizing more on planting but not management",which have limited effects in improving the productivity of woody grain and oil plants.5) In the context of rising agricultural subsidy standards and planting costs,woody grain and oil plants subsidy standards are low and lack of timely adjustment,which will weaken the incentive effects.【Conclusion 】 1) The subsidies play an important role in expanding planting scales,which show that it is necessary to realize the continuity of subsidies,and the subsidies for improvement of low yield forest should be properly tilted to small-scale farmers.2) The afforestation subsidies have led to the "emphasizing more on planting but not management"problem,which have limited effects on the improvement of the productivity of woody grain and oil plants.Forestry subsidy policies should be gradually adjusted from afforestation to management.3) Too high minimum subsidy areas or too low subsidy standard will result in the reduction of planting areas and the loss of welfare of small-scale producers.So it would be useful to expand the source of subsidy funds and to increase the subsidy standard.4) The production subsidies only linked to the planting areas make the production efficiency of large-scale growers be lower than the small-scale growers.It is necessary to guide moderate scale operation and improve marginal productivity by setting subsidy conditions.
【Objective 】 Encouraging farmers to expand the growing areas of woody grains and oil seeds plants,improving the production efficiency and thus easing the grain and oil security problem are the main policy objectives of subsidies for woody grain and oil plants.Determining the effects of subsidies for the woody grain and oil plants in the main producing provinces,and constructing a theoretical model to verify the effectiveness of the policy from the perspective of farmers' behavior response can help to explore the effects and the theoretical mechanism of the subsidy policy.These answers can provide a scientific evidence for the development of more targeted and more efficient woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy.【Method】Firstly,based on the investigations and researches,the main contents of the woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy were reviewed.Secondly,surveys by interviews and questionnaires were used to investigate the implementation of subsidy policy and industrial development of woody grain and oil plants in the main producing provinces,and summarize the practical effects of the subsidy policy.On this basis,assuming the woody grain and oil product market as a perfectly competitive market,we construct theoretical models to analyze the effects of the subsidy policy on the market equilibrium,on the production behaviors of different scale of farmers and on the production efficiencyrespectively.Besides,by distinguishing different scale growers of woody grain and oil plants,we analyze the effects of the implementation of woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy on the production behavior and efficiency for different scale of growers.The results were used to provide economic explanations for the actual effects of the implementation of subsidy policy.【Result】 The results show that: 1) After the implementation of the woody grain and oil plants subsidy policy,the planting areas have been greatly increased in the main producing provinces.2) The prices of main woody grain and oil plants such as Chinese chestnut,jujube,walnut,oil-tea camellia have showed a downward trend.3) The number of new management organizations of woody grain and oil plants have increased,and the planting scale of single household is expanding,which contribute to the obvious scale concentration effect.4) The one-time funding subsidy form which is mainly linked to the planting areas is difficult to effectively improve the problem of "emphasizing more on planting but not management",which have limited effects in improving the productivity of woody grain and oil plants.5) In the context of rising agricultural subsidy standards and planting costs,woody grain and oil plants subsidy standards are low and lack of timely adjustment,which will weaken the incentive effects.【Conclusion 】 1) The subsidies play an important role in expanding planting scales,which show that it is necessary to realize the continuity of subsidies,and the subsidies for improvement of low yield forest should be properly tilted to small-scale farmers.2) The afforestation subsidies have led to the "emphasizing more on planting but not management"problem,which have limited effects on the improvement of the productivity of woody grain and oil plants.Forestry subsidy policies should be gradually adjusted from afforestation to management.3) Too high minimum subsidy areas or too low subsidy standard will result in the reduction of planting areas and the loss of welfare of small-scale producers.So it would be useful to expand the source of subsidy funds and to increase the subsidy standard.4) The production subsidies only linked to the planting areas make the production efficiency of large-scale growers be lower than the small-scale growers.It is necessary to guide moderate scale operation and improve marginal productivity by setting subsidy conditions.
引文
国家发展和改革委员会价格司.2013.全国农产品成本收益资料汇编2013.北京:中国统计出版社.(National Development and Reform Commission Price Department.2013.National agricultural product cost and income data compilation2013.Beijing:China Statistics Press.[in Chinese])
国家林业局.2011.发展现代林业促进绿色增长.北京:中国林业出版社.(State Forestry Administration.2011.Development of modern forestry promote green growth.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
黄安胜,林群.2013.基于政策实施理论依据视角的我国林业补贴政策分析.世界林业研究,26(4):1-5.(Huang A S,Lin Q.2013.Analysis of forestry subsidy policies from the perspective of theoretic basis of policy implementation.World Forestry Research,26(4):1-5.[in Chinese])
黄祥芳,陈建成,陈训波.2014.地方政府土地流转补贴政策分析及完善措施.西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,14(2):1-6.(Huang X F,Chen J C,Chen X B.2014.Analysis of local government’s subsidy policy for rural land transfer.Journal of Northwest A&F University:Social Science Edition,14(2):1-6.[in Chinese])
刘璨,李成金,许兆军,等.2014.我国林业财政政策研究.林业经济,(1):60-79.(Liu C,Li C J,Xu Z J,et al.2014.Study on fiscal policy of forestry in China.Forestry Economics,(1):60-79.[in Chinese])
刘璨,林海燕.2011.林业重点工程对农民收入流动的影响研究.中国软科学,(1):34-46.(Liu C,Lin H Y.2011.The impact of forestry priority programs on rural household’s income mobility in China.China Soft Science,(1):34-46.[in Chinese])
刘璨,张巍.2006.退耕还林政策选择对农户收入的影响---以我国京津风沙治理工程为例.经济学(季刊),(1):273-290.(Liu C,Zhang W.2006.Impacts of conversion of farmland to forestland program on household income:Evidence from a sand control program in the vicinity of Beijing and Tianjin.China Economic Quarterly,(1):273-290.[in Chinese])
欧文·B·塔克.2006.今日微观经济学.北京:北京大学出版社.(Erwin B Tucker.2006.Today’s micro economics.Beijing:Pekin University Press.[in Chinese])
山东省农业厅.2014-09-11.山东核桃价格开始下跌[EB/OL].[2015-08-20].http:∥www.sdny.gov.cn/art/2014/9/11/art_3301_376391.html.(Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture.2014-09-11.Shandong walnut prices began to fall[EB/OL].[2015-08-20].http:∥www.sdny.gov.cn/art/2014/9/11/art_3301_376391.html[in Chinese])
尚德蒙斯国际商务中心.2011-03-02.中国茶油行业深度分析报告[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http:∥5xts.com/read9d47d748669b6449d1b6128a.html.(Suntech Mons International Business Center.2011-03-02.Chines oil-tea camellia industry research report[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http:∥5xts.com/read/9d47d748669b6449d1b6128a.html.[in Chinese])
谭荣,曲福田.2005.补贴对林业生产及森林生态效益影响的经济学分析:一个定量分析模型.自然资源学报,20(4):605-612.(Tan R,Qu F T.2005.An economic analysis of the effect of subsidie on forestry and forest ecological benefit:A quantitative model.Journal of Natural Resource,20(4):605-612.[in Chinese])
吴柏海,曾以禹.2013.林业补贴政策比较研究---基于部分发达国家林业补贴政策工具的比较分析.农业经济问题,(7):95-102.(Wu B H,Zeng Y Y.2013.Comparative on forestry subsidy policy:Based on the comparative analysis of forestry subsidy policy tools in some developed countries.Issues in Agricultural Economy,(7):95-102.[in Chinese])
支玲,杨明,卿向阳,等.2010.西部退耕还林工程可持续发展能力评价---以云南省鹤庆县、贵州省织金县和四川省朝天区为例.林业科学,46(5):161-168.(Zhi L,Yang M,Qing X Y,et al.2010.Assessment of sustainabl development capacity of the conversion of cropland to forest projec in western China:Cases study of Heqing county in Yunnan province,Zhijin county in Guizhou province and Chaotian district in Sichuan province.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,46(5):161-168.[in Chinese])
钟甫宁,顾和军,纪月清.2008.农民角色分化与农业补贴政策的收入分配效应.管理世界,(5):65-70.(Zhong F N,Gu H J,Ji Y Q.2008.Peasants’role differentiation and the income distribution effect of agricultural policy.Managemen World,(5):65-70.[in Chinese])
Hickmam C A,Gehhausen R.2001.Landowner interest in forestr assistance programs in east Texas.Journal of Forestry,(5):211-213.
Sabbatini V.2014.The supply function of olive oil:a case study o Italy.Procedia Economics and Finance,14:553-558.
国家林业局.2011.发展现代林业促进绿色增长.北京:中国林业出版社.(State Forestry Administration.2011.Development of modern forestry promote green growth.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
黄安胜,林群.2013.基于政策实施理论依据视角的我国林业补贴政策分析.世界林业研究,26(4):1-5.(Huang A S,Lin Q.2013.Analysis of forestry subsidy policies from the perspective of theoretic basis of policy implementation.World Forestry Research,26(4):1-5.[in Chinese])
黄祥芳,陈建成,陈训波.2014.地方政府土地流转补贴政策分析及完善措施.西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,14(2):1-6.(Huang X F,Chen J C,Chen X B.2014.Analysis of local government’s subsidy policy for rural land transfer.Journal of Northwest A&F University:Social Science Edition,14(2):1-6.[in Chinese])
刘璨,李成金,许兆军,等.2014.我国林业财政政策研究.林业经济,(1):60-79.(Liu C,Li C J,Xu Z J,et al.2014.Study on fiscal policy of forestry in China.Forestry Economics,(1):60-79.[in Chinese])
刘璨,林海燕.2011.林业重点工程对农民收入流动的影响研究.中国软科学,(1):34-46.(Liu C,Lin H Y.2011.The impact of forestry priority programs on rural household’s income mobility in China.China Soft Science,(1):34-46.[in Chinese])
刘璨,张巍.2006.退耕还林政策选择对农户收入的影响---以我国京津风沙治理工程为例.经济学(季刊),(1):273-290.(Liu C,Zhang W.2006.Impacts of conversion of farmland to forestland program on household income:Evidence from a sand control program in the vicinity of Beijing and Tianjin.China Economic Quarterly,(1):273-290.[in Chinese])
欧文·B·塔克.2006.今日微观经济学.北京:北京大学出版社.(Erwin B Tucker.2006.Today’s micro economics.Beijing:Pekin University Press.[in Chinese])
山东省农业厅.2014-09-11.山东核桃价格开始下跌[EB/OL].[2015-08-20].http:∥www.sdny.gov.cn/art/2014/9/11/art_3301_376391.html.(Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture.2014-09-11.Shandong walnut prices began to fall[EB/OL].[2015-08-20].http:∥www.sdny.gov.cn/art/2014/9/11/art_3301_376391.html[in Chinese])
尚德蒙斯国际商务中心.2011-03-02.中国茶油行业深度分析报告[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http:∥5xts.com/read9d47d748669b6449d1b6128a.html.(Suntech Mons International Business Center.2011-03-02.Chines oil-tea camellia industry research report[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http:∥5xts.com/read/9d47d748669b6449d1b6128a.html.[in Chinese])
谭荣,曲福田.2005.补贴对林业生产及森林生态效益影响的经济学分析:一个定量分析模型.自然资源学报,20(4):605-612.(Tan R,Qu F T.2005.An economic analysis of the effect of subsidie on forestry and forest ecological benefit:A quantitative model.Journal of Natural Resource,20(4):605-612.[in Chinese])
吴柏海,曾以禹.2013.林业补贴政策比较研究---基于部分发达国家林业补贴政策工具的比较分析.农业经济问题,(7):95-102.(Wu B H,Zeng Y Y.2013.Comparative on forestry subsidy policy:Based on the comparative analysis of forestry subsidy policy tools in some developed countries.Issues in Agricultural Economy,(7):95-102.[in Chinese])
支玲,杨明,卿向阳,等.2010.西部退耕还林工程可持续发展能力评价---以云南省鹤庆县、贵州省织金县和四川省朝天区为例.林业科学,46(5):161-168.(Zhi L,Yang M,Qing X Y,et al.2010.Assessment of sustainabl development capacity of the conversion of cropland to forest projec in western China:Cases study of Heqing county in Yunnan province,Zhijin county in Guizhou province and Chaotian district in Sichuan province.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,46(5):161-168.[in Chinese])
钟甫宁,顾和军,纪月清.2008.农民角色分化与农业补贴政策的收入分配效应.管理世界,(5):65-70.(Zhong F N,Gu H J,Ji Y Q.2008.Peasants’role differentiation and the income distribution effect of agricultural policy.Managemen World,(5):65-70.[in Chinese])
Hickmam C A,Gehhausen R.2001.Landowner interest in forestr assistance programs in east Texas.Journal of Forestry,(5):211-213.
Sabbatini V.2014.The supply function of olive oil:a case study o Italy.Procedia Economics and Finance,14:553-558.