青藏高原粮食生产、消费及安全风险格局变化
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摘要
青藏高原是中国粮食短缺地区之一,提高其粮食自给能力和确保粮食安全一直受到中央和地方政府的高度重视。在修订牧业区和半农半牧地区人均粮食消费需求量标准的基础上,利用1985-2015年青藏高原县级行政单元粮食产量和消费数据,采用波动系数法、分级法、重心模型以及粮食短缺指数模型,分析青藏高原粮食生产和消费的时空变化特征,并评估114个县市的粮食安全风险状况。结果表明:青藏高原粮食生产与消费空间分布不均衡,粮食生产呈环形分布在青藏高原东部湟黄谷地、藏东和藏南沿江河谷地带,中部和西部粮食产量较低,粮食消费呈东高西低格局;本地粮食生产不能满足居民消费需求,区域粮食缺口量达21.04万～121.69万t,相当于粮食消费需求的8.22%～40.11%,考虑旅游人口的影响,2015年区域粮食缺口达132.92万t;青藏高原粮食安全风险较高的地区广泛分布在藏北高原、青南高原、祁连山地以及城市化水平较高的拉萨市辖区和西宁市辖区,旅游业发展对林芝市的粮食安全风险影响显著;单纯依靠粮食增产不能解决区域粮食问题,建立完善的粮食储备和交通物流体系、加强与内地及周边国家的粮食贸易合作,是保障青藏高原粮食安全的关键。
The problem of grain shortages has long plagued the Tibetan Plateau, therefore both the state and the local government are scaling up efforts to achieve grain self-sufficiency and grain security in this region. Meanwhile, many researchers devoted themselves to study the grain security issues to provide rational advices. Here in this paper, we intended to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of grain production and consumption in the Tibetan Plateau and then evaluate the risk status of grain security in 114 counties. First, we revised the standards of per capita grain consumption demand in pasturing area and farming-pastoral region. Then, on this basis, we analyzed the corresponding data of the 114 counties during1985-2015 by applying the fluctuation coefficient method, classification method, barycenter model and the index model of grain shortages. Analytical results showed that there was a nonuniform geographical distribution of grain production and consumption, moreover, the holistic status of grain security in the Tibetan Plateau was not optimistic.(1) The production of grain increased in fluctuation and the consumption of grain grew steadily, the local grain production could not meet the consumption demand, and the deficit amounts were between 0.21 and 1.22 million tons annually, which accounted for between 8.22% and 40.11% of the grain consumption. The gap between grain production and consumption including tourists increased to 1.33 million tons in 2015.(2) The spatial distributions of grain production and grain consumption in the Tibetan Plateau were imbalanced, the grain yields in Huang-Huang valley and the valley along the Yarlung Zangbo River were higher, while the yields distributed in the central and western parts of the plateau were lower. Affected by population, city, and traffic distribution, the grain consumption was high in the eastern part and low in the western.(3) The spatial patterns of grain security in the Tibetan Plateau in 2015 showed that the higher-risk types involved 42 counties with a population of 2.92 million, and they were widely distributed in western Tibet, northern Tibet, southern Qinghai, Qilian Mountains, as well as in municipal districts of cities of Lhasa and Xining; compared to 1985, the risks of grain security on the midstream and downstream of Yarlung Zangbo River and southeastern Qinghai province were mitigated, while those in western Ngari and northeastern Qinghai were intensified.(4) The tourists increased the risks of grain security in Lhasa, Nyingchi, Shannan, Shigatse, Haidong and Hainan cities, and the negative influence of tourist on Linzhi city was most significant.(5)Production increase alone cannot solve the problem of grain shortage, so it is urgent for the Tibetan Plateau to improve the grain reserves, transportation facilities and expand the grain trade with other regions to achieve regional grain security.
The problem of grain shortages has long plagued the Tibetan Plateau, therefore both the state and the local government are scaling up efforts to achieve grain self-sufficiency and grain security in this region. Meanwhile, many researchers devoted themselves to study the grain security issues to provide rational advices. Here in this paper, we intended to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of grain production and consumption in the Tibetan Plateau and then evaluate the risk status of grain security in 114 counties. First, we revised the standards of per capita grain consumption demand in pasturing area and farming-pastoral region. Then, on this basis, we analyzed the corresponding data of the 114 counties during1985-2015 by applying the fluctuation coefficient method, classification method, barycenter model and the index model of grain shortages. Analytical results showed that there was a nonuniform geographical distribution of grain production and consumption, moreover, the holistic status of grain security in the Tibetan Plateau was not optimistic.(1) The production of grain increased in fluctuation and the consumption of grain grew steadily, the local grain production could not meet the consumption demand, and the deficit amounts were between 0.21 and 1.22 million tons annually, which accounted for between 8.22% and 40.11% of the grain consumption. The gap between grain production and consumption including tourists increased to 1.33 million tons in 2015.(2) The spatial distributions of grain production and grain consumption in the Tibetan Plateau were imbalanced, the grain yields in Huang-Huang valley and the valley along the Yarlung Zangbo River were higher, while the yields distributed in the central and western parts of the plateau were lower. Affected by population, city, and traffic distribution, the grain consumption was high in the eastern part and low in the western.(3) The spatial patterns of grain security in the Tibetan Plateau in 2015 showed that the higher-risk types involved 42 counties with a population of 2.92 million, and they were widely distributed in western Tibet, northern Tibet, southern Qinghai, Qilian Mountains, as well as in municipal districts of cities of Lhasa and Xining; compared to 1985, the risks of grain security on the midstream and downstream of Yarlung Zangbo River and southeastern Qinghai province were mitigated, while those in western Ngari and northeastern Qinghai were intensified.(4) The tourists increased the risks of grain security in Lhasa, Nyingchi, Shannan, Shigatse, Haidong and Hainan cities, and the negative influence of tourist on Linzhi city was most significant.(5)Production increase alone cannot solve the problem of grain shortage, so it is urgent for the Tibetan Plateau to improve the grain reserves, transportation facilities and expand the grain trade with other regions to achieve regional grain security.
引文
[1]刘燕华,杨勤业.西藏自治区的土地、粮食和人口.自然资源学报,1991,6(2):127-136.[LIU Y H,YANG Q Y.Land,food and population in the Tibet Autonomous region.Journal of Natural Resources,1991,6(2):127-136.]
[2]刘键,李祥妹,钟祥浩.西藏自治区居民食品消费结构与粮食对策.山地学报,2004,22(3):286-291.[LIU J,LI X M,ZHONG X H.Consumption structure of food and the countermeasure of grain in Tibet.Journal of Mountain Science,2004,22(3):286-291.]
[3]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.西藏粮食安全状况及主要粮食供需关系研究.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):951-960.[GAO L W,XU Z R,CHENG S K,et al.Food security situation and major grain supply and demand in Tibetan region.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):951-960.]
[4]樊杰,徐勇,王传胜,等.西藏近半个世纪以来人类活动的生态环境效应.科学通报,2015,60(32):3057-3066.[FANJ,XU Y,WANG C S,et al.The effects of human activities on the ecological environment of Tibet over the past half century.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(32):3057-3066.]
[5]徐增让,张镱锂,成升魁,等.青藏高原区域可持续发展战略思考.科技导报,2017,35(6):108-114.[XU Z R,ZHANG Y L,CHENG S K,et al.Scientific basis and the strategy of sustainable development in Tibetan Plateau.Science&Technology Review,2017,35(6):108-114.]
[6]王先明.西藏高寒农区在粮食生产中的地位和作用.西藏农业科技,1996,17(4):20-22.[WANG X M.The status and role of Tibet's alpine farming area in grain production.Tibet Journal of Agricultural Sciences,1996,17(4):20-22.]
[7]李泽启,朱京生,梁明海.青海提高粮食自给水平对策研究.青海社会科学,1997,(3):37-44.[LI Z Q,ZHU J S,LI-ANG M H.Study on the measures to improve grain self-sufficiency in Qinghai province.Qinghai Social Sciences,1997,(3):37-44.]
[8]马洪波.解决青海粮食问题的思路.开发研究,1992,(2):14-16.[MA H B.Solutions of grain problems in Qinghai province.Research on Development,1992,(2):14-16.]
[9]周强,刘林山,张镱锂,等.高原牧区草地变化对牧民粮食安全的影响:以青海省达日县为例.自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1333-1345.[ZHOU Q,LIU L S,ZHANG Y L,et al.Effect of grassland change on food security in alpine pastoral area:A case study in Dalag county,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(8):1333-1345.]
[10]赵贯锋,余成群,钟志明,等.西藏食物安全战略初探.西藏科技,2016,(5):17-21.[ZHAO G F,YU C Q,ZHONG ZM,et al.A preliminary study on food safety strategy in Tibet.Tibet Science and Technology,2016,(5):17-21.]
[11]封志明,陈百明,王立新.现实与未来:中国的人口与粮食问题.科技导报,1991,9(4):31-34.[FENG Z M,CHEN BC,WANG L X.Today and the future:Population and grain in China.Science and Technology Review,1991,9(4):31-34.]
[12]陈百明,周小萍.中国粮食自给率与耕地资源安全底线的探讨.经济地理,2005,25(2):145-148.[CHEN B M,ZHOU X Q.Analysis on the grain self-sufficient ratio and the safe baseline of cultivated land in China.Economic Geography,2005,25(2):145-148.]
[13]张利国.我国区域粮食安全演变:1949-2008.经济地理,2011,31(5):833-838.[ZHANG L G.Evolution of China's regional food security:1949-2008.Economic Geography,2011,31(5):833-838.]
[14]起晓星,刘黎明,刘亚彬.基于缺口率模型的区域粮食安全风险评估.农业工程学报,2013,29(9):1-8.[QI X X,LIUL M,LIU Y B.Risk assessment for regional food security based on models of food supply-demand gap.Transactions of the CSAE,2013,29(9):1-8.]
[15]姚成胜,黄琳,吕晞.中国中部地区粮食安全水平及其对国家粮食安全的保障能力评价.地域研究与开发,2015,34(6):149-154.[YAO C S,HUANG L,LYU X.Evaluation on central China's food security situation and its guarantee ability to China.Areal Research and Development.2015,34(6):149-154.]
[16]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲,等.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局.自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-631,678.[YIN P H,FANG X Q,MA Y L,et al.New regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China in the early 21stcentury.Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(4):625-631,678.]
[17]封志明,杨艳昭,张晶.中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:从分县到全国.自然资源学报,2008,23(5):865-875.[FENG Z M,YANG Y Z,ZHANG J.The land carrying capacity of China based on man-grain relationship.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(5):865-875.]
[18]程鸿,倪祖彬,孙尚志,等.青藏高原农业地域分异.资源科学,1981,3(2):7-13.[CHENG H,NI Z B,SUN S Z,et al.Regional differentiation of agriculture in the Tibetan Plateau.Resources Science,1981,3(2):7-13.]
[19]HEADEY D,ECKER O.Rethinking the measurement of food security:From first principles to best practice.Food Security,2013,5(3):327-343.
[20]SMITH L C,OBEID A E E,JENSEN H H.The geography and causes of food insecurity in developing countries.Agricultural Economics,2015,22(2):199-215.
[21]HUANG J,YANG G.Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China.Global Food Security,2017,12:119-126.
[22]中国农业科学院.人均400公斤粮食必不可少.中国农业科学,1986,19(5):1-7.[Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.400 kilogrammes of grain per capital are essential to China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,1986,19(5):1-7.]
[23]贺一梅,杨子生.基于粮食安全的区域人均粮食需求量分析.全国流通经济,2008,(7):6-8.[HE Y M,YANG Z S.Analysis on regional per capital food demand based on food security.China Circulation Economy,2008,(7):6-8.]
[2]刘键,李祥妹,钟祥浩.西藏自治区居民食品消费结构与粮食对策.山地学报,2004,22(3):286-291.[LIU J,LI X M,ZHONG X H.Consumption structure of food and the countermeasure of grain in Tibet.Journal of Mountain Science,2004,22(3):286-291.]
[3]高利伟,徐增让,成升魁,等.西藏粮食安全状况及主要粮食供需关系研究.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):951-960.[GAO L W,XU Z R,CHENG S K,et al.Food security situation and major grain supply and demand in Tibetan region.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):951-960.]
[4]樊杰,徐勇,王传胜,等.西藏近半个世纪以来人类活动的生态环境效应.科学通报,2015,60(32):3057-3066.[FANJ,XU Y,WANG C S,et al.The effects of human activities on the ecological environment of Tibet over the past half century.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(32):3057-3066.]
[5]徐增让,张镱锂,成升魁,等.青藏高原区域可持续发展战略思考.科技导报,2017,35(6):108-114.[XU Z R,ZHANG Y L,CHENG S K,et al.Scientific basis and the strategy of sustainable development in Tibetan Plateau.Science&Technology Review,2017,35(6):108-114.]
[6]王先明.西藏高寒农区在粮食生产中的地位和作用.西藏农业科技,1996,17(4):20-22.[WANG X M.The status and role of Tibet's alpine farming area in grain production.Tibet Journal of Agricultural Sciences,1996,17(4):20-22.]
[7]李泽启,朱京生,梁明海.青海提高粮食自给水平对策研究.青海社会科学,1997,(3):37-44.[LI Z Q,ZHU J S,LI-ANG M H.Study on the measures to improve grain self-sufficiency in Qinghai province.Qinghai Social Sciences,1997,(3):37-44.]
[8]马洪波.解决青海粮食问题的思路.开发研究,1992,(2):14-16.[MA H B.Solutions of grain problems in Qinghai province.Research on Development,1992,(2):14-16.]
[9]周强,刘林山,张镱锂,等.高原牧区草地变化对牧民粮食安全的影响:以青海省达日县为例.自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1333-1345.[ZHOU Q,LIU L S,ZHANG Y L,et al.Effect of grassland change on food security in alpine pastoral area:A case study in Dalag county,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(8):1333-1345.]
[10]赵贯锋,余成群,钟志明,等.西藏食物安全战略初探.西藏科技,2016,(5):17-21.[ZHAO G F,YU C Q,ZHONG ZM,et al.A preliminary study on food safety strategy in Tibet.Tibet Science and Technology,2016,(5):17-21.]
[11]封志明,陈百明,王立新.现实与未来:中国的人口与粮食问题.科技导报,1991,9(4):31-34.[FENG Z M,CHEN BC,WANG L X.Today and the future:Population and grain in China.Science and Technology Review,1991,9(4):31-34.]
[12]陈百明,周小萍.中国粮食自给率与耕地资源安全底线的探讨.经济地理,2005,25(2):145-148.[CHEN B M,ZHOU X Q.Analysis on the grain self-sufficient ratio and the safe baseline of cultivated land in China.Economic Geography,2005,25(2):145-148.]
[13]张利国.我国区域粮食安全演变:1949-2008.经济地理,2011,31(5):833-838.[ZHANG L G.Evolution of China's regional food security:1949-2008.Economic Geography,2011,31(5):833-838.]
[14]起晓星,刘黎明,刘亚彬.基于缺口率模型的区域粮食安全风险评估.农业工程学报,2013,29(9):1-8.[QI X X,LIUL M,LIU Y B.Risk assessment for regional food security based on models of food supply-demand gap.Transactions of the CSAE,2013,29(9):1-8.]
[15]姚成胜,黄琳,吕晞.中国中部地区粮食安全水平及其对国家粮食安全的保障能力评价.地域研究与开发,2015,34(6):149-154.[YAO C S,HUANG L,LYU X.Evaluation on central China's food security situation and its guarantee ability to China.Areal Research and Development.2015,34(6):149-154.]
[16]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲,等.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局.自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-631,678.[YIN P H,FANG X Q,MA Y L,et al.New regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China in the early 21stcentury.Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(4):625-631,678.]
[17]封志明,杨艳昭,张晶.中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:从分县到全国.自然资源学报,2008,23(5):865-875.[FENG Z M,YANG Y Z,ZHANG J.The land carrying capacity of China based on man-grain relationship.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(5):865-875.]
[18]程鸿,倪祖彬,孙尚志,等.青藏高原农业地域分异.资源科学,1981,3(2):7-13.[CHENG H,NI Z B,SUN S Z,et al.Regional differentiation of agriculture in the Tibetan Plateau.Resources Science,1981,3(2):7-13.]
[19]HEADEY D,ECKER O.Rethinking the measurement of food security:From first principles to best practice.Food Security,2013,5(3):327-343.
[20]SMITH L C,OBEID A E E,JENSEN H H.The geography and causes of food insecurity in developing countries.Agricultural Economics,2015,22(2):199-215.
[21]HUANG J,YANG G.Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China.Global Food Security,2017,12:119-126.
[22]中国农业科学院.人均400公斤粮食必不可少.中国农业科学,1986,19(5):1-7.[Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.400 kilogrammes of grain per capital are essential to China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,1986,19(5):1-7.]
[23]贺一梅,杨子生.基于粮食安全的区域人均粮食需求量分析.全国流通经济,2008,(7):6-8.[HE Y M,YANG Z S.Analysis on regional per capital food demand based on food security.China Circulation Economy,2008,(7):6-8.]