黑龙江哈尔滨地区近60年极端气温变化研究
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摘要
用1955~2013年哈尔滨市、尚志市(县)和通河县逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向法、距平及累积距平法、Morlet复数小波、主成分分析、相关性分析和Mann-Kendall检验法,对11个常用气候指标进行分析。结果表明,哈尔滨夏、秋、冬季气温呈上升趋势,冬季升温极为显著,春季气温以0.60℃/10a的速度显著下降;年均气温、年均最低温、年均最高温均有所增加,年均最低气温升幅最大。年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、夏日日数、热夜日数、暖夜日数和暖日日数6个指标呈上升趋势变化;结冰日数、霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷日日数及气温年较差5个指数呈下降趋势。年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温及变化率较大的暖夜日数,均有28~30 a的第一主周期和17~18 a的第二主周期,冷夜主要有3、6和8 a的短周期。主成分分析结果表明,高载荷的指数暖夜、冷夜和暖日这些相对指数的变化是哈尔滨极端气温变化的主要原因。相关关系矩阵表明,相对指数间的相关性极为显著;各暖指标、各冷指标间呈正相关,暖指标和冷指标间呈负相关。Mann-Kendall检验得知,冰日、冷夜和冷日三个冷指标的突变发生在20世纪70s、80s,其他指标的突变主要发生在1990~1999年间。总之,哈尔滨平均气温以0.32℃/10a的速率增加,升温幅度高于全国平均升温值0.26℃/10a,研究结果可为防灾减灾提供理论依据。
Based on the daily temperature data of the period 1955-2013 from Harbin station,Shangzhi station,and Tonghe station,11 common climate indices were analyzed by using linear trend method,anomaly and accumulative anomaly method,Morlet wavelet analysis,main component analysis,correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Results show that,temperature of summer,autumn,and winter in Harbin are rising,winter temperature has increased significantly,while the spring temperature has an obvious reduction at a rate of 0. 60 ℃/10 a; The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature,and annual average maximum temperature have increased,and the annual average minimum temperature has the largest rise. Six indices including annual extreme maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature,summer day,hot night,warm night,warm day are on the rise; five indices including ice day,frost day,cold night,cold day,annual temperature range are on the decline. Annual extreme maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature and warm night with high rate of change have a first main cycle of 28 ~ 30 a and a second main cycle of 17 ~ 18 a,cold night has short cycles of 3 a,6 a and 8 a. Results of principle component analysis shows that changes of high load indices including warm night,cold night and warm day are probably the main reasons of Harbin's temperature change. Correlation matrix shows that correlations of relative indices are extremely significant; each warm index or cold index is positively correlated with the other warm or cold indices,but warm indices are negatively correlated with cold indices. From Mann-Kendall test,the mutation of three cold indices including ice day,cold night and cold day mainly occurred in 1970 s and 1980 s,other indices' mutation mainly occurred during 1990 ~1999. On the whole,the average temperature in Harbin has increased with a rate of 0. 32 ℃/10 a,temperature rising rate is higher than the national average temperature rising rate of 0. 26 ℃/10 a. Results concluded from this paper can provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and reduction.
Based on the daily temperature data of the period 1955-2013 from Harbin station,Shangzhi station,and Tonghe station,11 common climate indices were analyzed by using linear trend method,anomaly and accumulative anomaly method,Morlet wavelet analysis,main component analysis,correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Results show that,temperature of summer,autumn,and winter in Harbin are rising,winter temperature has increased significantly,while the spring temperature has an obvious reduction at a rate of 0. 60 ℃/10 a; The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature,and annual average maximum temperature have increased,and the annual average minimum temperature has the largest rise. Six indices including annual extreme maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature,summer day,hot night,warm night,warm day are on the rise; five indices including ice day,frost day,cold night,cold day,annual temperature range are on the decline. Annual extreme maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature and warm night with high rate of change have a first main cycle of 28 ~ 30 a and a second main cycle of 17 ~ 18 a,cold night has short cycles of 3 a,6 a and 8 a. Results of principle component analysis shows that changes of high load indices including warm night,cold night and warm day are probably the main reasons of Harbin's temperature change. Correlation matrix shows that correlations of relative indices are extremely significant; each warm index or cold index is positively correlated with the other warm or cold indices,but warm indices are negatively correlated with cold indices. From Mann-Kendall test,the mutation of three cold indices including ice day,cold night and cold day mainly occurred in 1970 s and 1980 s,other indices' mutation mainly occurred during 1990 ~1999. On the whole,the average temperature in Harbin has increased with a rate of 0. 32 ℃/10 a,temperature rising rate is higher than the national average temperature rising rate of 0. 26 ℃/10 a. Results concluded from this paper can provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and reduction.
引文
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[2]丁裕国.探讨灾害规律的理论基础-极端气候事件概率[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(1):44-50.
[3]丁一汇,张锦,宋亚芳.天气和气候极端事件的变化及其与全球变暖的联系-纪念2002年世界气象日“减低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”[J].气象,2002,28(3):3-7.
[4]郑寒,杨金涛.应对极端天气气候事件挑战-对加强社会科学与自然科学交流合作的思考[J].绿色科技,2011,(8):136-139.
[5]Dashkhuu D,Kim J P,Chun J A,et al.Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes over Mongolia[J].Weather&Climate Extremes,2014,56:26-33.
[6]Keggenhoff I,Elizbarashvili M,King L.Recent changes in Georgia’s temperature means and extremes:Annual and seasonal trends between 1961and 2010[J].Weather&Climate Extremes,2015,8(4):34-45.
[7]田秀珍,冶明珠.近50年乐都县气候变化特征及对农业生产的影响分析[J].青海气象,2015,(3):13-17.
[8]梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.1961-2013年东北地区夏季降水变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(5):67-73.
[9]高永刚,顾红,姬菊枝,等.近43年来黑龙江气候变化对农作物产量影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(4):532-538.
[10]刘玉莲,周海龙,苍蕴琦.四季分明是哈尔滨气候的显著特征[J].黑龙江气象,2003,(4):21-21.
[11]安晓存,景学义,陈莉,等.哈尔滨市近百年(5~9月)气候变化主要特征[J].黑龙江水利科技,2012,40(9):13-13.
[12]张春媚,王蔚.阿城区近50年旱涝、霜冻变化特征分析[J].林业勘查设计,2012,(4):80-82.
[13]任国玉,陈峪,邹旭恺,等.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):354-364.
[14]解志佳,吕艳杰,崔泽宇,等.气温变化对哈尔滨市呼兰区玉米生长发育的影响[J].湖北农业科学,2014,53(18):4268-4271.
[15]严晓瑜,赵春雨,王颖,等.近50年东北地区极端温度变化趋势[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):81-87.
[16]宁晓菊,张丽君,杨群涛,等.1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势[J].地理学报,2015,70(11):1811-1822.
[17]Mora C,Frazier A G,Longman R J,et al.The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability[J].Nature,2013,502(7470):183-187.
[18]德勒格日玛,李一平,马素艳.用小波分析方法诊断鄂尔多斯市降水周期变化[J].内蒙古气象,2014,(1):29-31.
[19]秦大河,Thomas S.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[20]Hamed K H.Exact distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,365(1):86-94.
[21]任国玉,任玉玉,李庆祥,等.全球陆地表面气温变化研究现状、问题和展望[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(8):934-946.
[22]张强,韩永翔,宋连春.全球气候变化及其影响因素研究进展综述[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(9):990-998.
[23]赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.极端天气与气候事件受到全球变暖影响吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):388-390.
[24]隋长玉,蒋春侠.1998年嫩江松花江特大洪水灾害分析[J].东北水利水电,2001,19(2):18-19.