气候变化影响下新疆水文要素变化特征及预测
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摘要
选择与水资源总量在0.01水平上显著相关的要素——降水,采用Mann-Kendall、有序聚类、小波和R/S分析等方法,以天山山脉为界,将新疆分为北疆、南疆两个分区,探讨区域降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:时间分布上,1951～2016年,全疆、北疆、南疆年降水总体均呈显著增加趋势,降水周期基本一致,3,6,15a(14a);空间分布上,北疆与全疆年际、年代变化趋势较为接近,多年平均降水量呈现空间分布差异(北疆>全疆>南疆);在未来周期时段内,降水保持状态反持续性,全疆、北疆、南疆年降水均呈显著减少趋势。
Precipitation as the influence factor of hydrological variation,which is corrective with the total water resources at the level of 0.01,using linear trend estimate,Mann-Kendall analysis,clustering analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis,Xinjiang was divided into north Xinjiang region and south Xinjiang region,to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics. The result show that,in the time scale,the precipitation showed an significant increasing trend in Xinjiang,north Xinjiang and south Xinjiang from 1951 to 2016,the precipitation cycles are basically the same in the area mentioned above,3 a,6 a,15 a(14 a). In the spatial scale,the trend of annual and years change of north Xinjiang region is close to Xinjiang,and the average annual precipitation showed differences in spatial distribution(north Xinjiang > Xinjiang > south Xinjiang). The annual precipitation of Xinjiang,north Xinjiang and south Xinjiang keep anti persistent and show significant decreasing trend.
Precipitation as the influence factor of hydrological variation,which is corrective with the total water resources at the level of 0.01,using linear trend estimate,Mann-Kendall analysis,clustering analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis,Xinjiang was divided into north Xinjiang region and south Xinjiang region,to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics. The result show that,in the time scale,the precipitation showed an significant increasing trend in Xinjiang,north Xinjiang and south Xinjiang from 1951 to 2016,the precipitation cycles are basically the same in the area mentioned above,3 a,6 a,15 a(14 a). In the spatial scale,the trend of annual and years change of north Xinjiang region is close to Xinjiang,and the average annual precipitation showed differences in spatial distribution(north Xinjiang > Xinjiang > south Xinjiang). The annual precipitation of Xinjiang,north Xinjiang and south Xinjiang keep anti persistent and show significant decreasing trend.
引文
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[9]李宝玲,李建林,昝明军,等.河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测[J].水文,2015(2):44-48.
[2]任国玉,任玉玉,李庆祥,等.全球陆地表面气温变化研究现状、问题和展望[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(8):934-946.
[3]程增辉,陆宝宏,熊丝,等.基于水足迹模型的新疆水资源承载力分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016(6):54-59.
[4]于延胜,陈兴伟.基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1585-1591.
[5]郭世兴,刘斌,王光社,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的汉江上游水沙趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2015(11):140-142.
[6]陆文秀,刘丙军,陈俊凡,等.近50 a来珠江流域降水变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,2014(1):80-90.
[7]刘俊萍,田峰巍,黄强,等.基于小波分析的黄河河川径流变化规律研究[J].自然科学进展,2003(4):49-53.
[8]王富强,李红霞.基于小波网络的径流多时间尺度分析及预报方法研究[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):17-20.
[9]李宝玲,李建林,昝明军,等.河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测[J].水文,2015(2):44-48.