1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析
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摘要
以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1)。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1);低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1)。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km~(-2),全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km~(-2),对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km~(-2),全国平均值均不高于137人·km~(-2);全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。
Climatic potential productivity (CPP) was calculated and population carrying capacity was evaluated for China using Thornthwaite Memorial model and annual temperature and precipitation data from a newgridded daily dataset (CN05. 1),in order to further enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change and the greatest possible supporting capacity of climate resources. The results showthat the annual CPP increased dramatically,and the mutation point was in 1987,with a minimum of 689. 18 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1),a maximum of 814. 56 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) and a mean of 744. 05 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) from 1961 to 2010. The CPP varied in different regions with a zonal distribution of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast of China. Regions with the CPP larger than 1800 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) were distributed in most areas of South China,with the highest value of 2103. 56 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1). Regions with the CPP lower than 300 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) were mainly distributed in western and northern China,with the lowest value of 39. 28 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1). The area with an increasing of the CPP (82%) was larger than that with a decreasing of the CPP (17%) over 2001-2010,relative to 1961-2010. However,the magnitude of variations in most areas in China was very small relative to1961-2010,with relatively greater variations distributed in the western and northern China. The climatic potential population carrying capacities of croplands in China ranged from 46 to 2180 persons/km~2 from 1995 to 2010,with annual average values of no less than 1130 persons/km~2. The actual population ranged from 0 to 49729 persons/km~2,with annual average value of no more than 137 persons/km~2. The ratio of actual total population to climatic potential population carrying capacities was in the range of 58%-65%. The actual productivity of croplands was less than climatic potential productivity,and the actual population was not beyond the scope of climatic potential population carrying capacities in most areas of China. Therefore,there is a certain potential for climatic potential productivity to be developed. The actual population has exceeded the climatic potential population carrying capacities in Qinghai,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai and much attention should be paid to these areas.
Climatic potential productivity (CPP) was calculated and population carrying capacity was evaluated for China using Thornthwaite Memorial model and annual temperature and precipitation data from a newgridded daily dataset (CN05. 1),in order to further enhance the understanding of the impact of climate change and the greatest possible supporting capacity of climate resources. The results showthat the annual CPP increased dramatically,and the mutation point was in 1987,with a minimum of 689. 18 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1),a maximum of 814. 56 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) and a mean of 744. 05 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) from 1961 to 2010. The CPP varied in different regions with a zonal distribution of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast of China. Regions with the CPP larger than 1800 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) were distributed in most areas of South China,with the highest value of 2103. 56 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1). Regions with the CPP lower than 300 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1) were mainly distributed in western and northern China,with the lowest value of 39. 28 g·m~(-2)·a~(-1). The area with an increasing of the CPP (82%) was larger than that with a decreasing of the CPP (17%) over 2001-2010,relative to 1961-2010. However,the magnitude of variations in most areas in China was very small relative to1961-2010,with relatively greater variations distributed in the western and northern China. The climatic potential population carrying capacities of croplands in China ranged from 46 to 2180 persons/km~2 from 1995 to 2010,with annual average values of no less than 1130 persons/km~2. The actual population ranged from 0 to 49729 persons/km~2,with annual average value of no more than 137 persons/km~2. The ratio of actual total population to climatic potential population carrying capacities was in the range of 58%-65%. The actual productivity of croplands was less than climatic potential productivity,and the actual population was not beyond the scope of climatic potential population carrying capacities in most areas of China. Therefore,there is a certain potential for climatic potential productivity to be developed. The actual population has exceeded the climatic potential population carrying capacities in Qinghai,Guangdong,Zhejiang,Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai and much attention should be paid to these areas.
引文
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[20]李正明,王毅荣.黄土高原气候生产力演变分析[J].山西大学学报:自然科学版,2006,29(1):96-101.
[21]侯西勇.1951-2000年中国气候生产潜力时空动态特征[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(5):723-730.
[22]李莉,周宏飞,包安明.中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(2):285-294.
[23]王春娟,何可杰.气候变化背景下陕西关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(28):170-176.
[24]潘虹,邱新法,廖留峰,等.近50年贵州省气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):158-163.
[25]武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(2):567-571.
[26]潘家华,郑艳,王建武,等.气候容量:适应气候变化的测度指标[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(2):1-8.
[27]周广胜,袁文平,周莉,等.东北地区陆地生态系统生产力及其人口承载力分析[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(1):65-72.
[28]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):1102-1111.
[29]古月,邱海涛.呼和浩特市气候资源潜力分析[J].北方环境,2010,22(4):42-45.
[2]李艳春.宁夏干旱区气候承载力分布特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(8):96-99.
[3]白美兰,郝润全,高建国,等.内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,28(6):253-257.
[4]於琍,卢燕宇,黄玮,等.气候承载力评估的意义及基本方法[M]//王伟光,郑国光.气候变化绿皮书---应对气候变化报告.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2015:268-280.
[5]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):80-94.
[6]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Contribution of w orking group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[7]李栋梁,吕兰芝.中国农牧交错带的气候特征与演变[J].中国沙漠,2002,22(5):483-488.
[8]陶波,李克让,邵雪梅,等.中国陆地净初级生产力时空特征模拟[J].地理学报,2003,58(3):372-380.
[9]康西言,马辉杰.河北省气候生产潜力的估算和区划[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):37-41.
[10]刘大锋,李海花.1961-2011年阿勒泰地区的气候生产潜力变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(2):25-28.
[11]Shiferaw B,Holden S.Resource degradation and adoption of land conservation technologies in the Ethiopian Highlands:A case study in Andit Tid,North Shew a[J].Agriculture Economics,1998,18(3):233-247.
[12]Kim K,Barham B L,Coxhead I.Measuring soil quality dynamics:A role for economists,and implications for economic analysis[J].Agricultural Economics,2001,25(1):13-26.
[13]何平,魏军,吉奇.浅析气候资源变化对本溪农业气候生产潜力的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2005,21(1):15-17.
[14]韩玮,韩永红,杨沈斌.1961-2011年山东气候资源及气候生产力时空变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(3):425-434.
[15]罗永忠,成自勇,郭小芹.近40a甘肃省气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].生态学报,2011,31(1):221-229.
[16]吉莉,李强,苟思,等.1971-2010年重庆蔬菜气候生产潜力特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(3):91-95.
[17]刘晶淼,申红艳,丁裕国,等.京津冀地区冬小麦气候生产潜力的一种动态区划[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(6):1-5.
[18]侯光良,游松才.用筑后模型估算中国植物气候生产力[J].自然资源学报,1990,5(1):60-65.
[19]张宪洲.我国自然植被净第一性生产力的估算与分布[J].自然资源,1993(1):15-21.
[20]李正明,王毅荣.黄土高原气候生产力演变分析[J].山西大学学报:自然科学版,2006,29(1):96-101.
[21]侯西勇.1951-2000年中国气候生产潜力时空动态特征[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(5):723-730.
[22]李莉,周宏飞,包安明.中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(2):285-294.
[23]王春娟,何可杰.气候变化背景下陕西关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(28):170-176.
[24]潘虹,邱新法,廖留峰,等.近50年贵州省气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):158-163.
[25]武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(2):567-571.
[26]潘家华,郑艳,王建武,等.气候容量:适应气候变化的测度指标[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(2):1-8.
[27]周广胜,袁文平,周莉,等.东北地区陆地生态系统生产力及其人口承载力分析[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(1):65-72.
[28]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):1102-1111.
[29]古月,邱海涛.呼和浩特市气候资源潜力分析[J].北方环境,2010,22(4):42-45.