建设用地扩张与碳排放增长的EKC验证及特征分解研究——以武汉市为例
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摘要
研究目的:量化碳排放增长与建设用地扩张的关系特征,对建设用地碳排放驱动因素进行分解。研究方法:EKC假说、KAYA恒等式、LMDI分解。研究结果:(1)建设用地总量与工业用地的碳排放EKC关系为倒U型,公共商服与交通用地为N型,居住用地则为U型;(2)地均GDP产出和产业用地规模对产业碳排放增长具有正向作用,而单位GDP产业能耗对产业排放增长具有负向效应,其他因素影响较弱;(3)人均GDP和居住用地规模对生活碳排放具有正向效应,而单位GDP生活能耗、单位能耗排放和居住人口密度具有负向效应;(4)交通出行结构、地均出行人口数和交通用地规模对交通碳排放具有正向效应,单位能耗排放和人均能耗强度对交通碳排放具有负向效应。研究结论:各类建设用地扩张均未达到碳排放增长拐点,工业用地扩张的碳排放边际速率降低使得武汉市碳排放增长趋缓,但居住、公共商服和交通碳排放在城市扩张中具备更快的增长趋势,是控制土地利用碳排放的重点;承载功能差异使得驱动建设用地碳排放增长的因素各异,需结合两者增长的耦合关系和不同因素碳效应探讨建设用地低碳利用途径。
The purpose of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the growth of anthropogenic carbon emission and the expansion of construction land, and then to conduct a decomposition study on the driving factors of carbon emission from construction land. The methods employed include Environment Kuznets Curve theory, Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition. The results showed that: 1)Kuznets Curve of carbon emission and construction land showed a inverted "U" shape, and so did industrial land. Public commercial land and traffic land showed a "N" shape and residential land showed a "U" shape. 2)The GDP per land and scale of industrial land had a positive effect on the growth of industrial carbon emission, while the industrial energy consumption per GDP had a negative one. The others had minor effect. 3)The GDP per capita and residential land scale had a positive effect on the growth of domestic carbon emission.The residential energy consumption per GDP, emissions per energy consumption and density of registered inhabitants showed a negative effect. 4)The transportation structure, traffic population per land and traffic land scale had a positive effect on the growth of traffic carbon emission. However, the emissions per energy consumption and energy intensity per capita had a negative effect on carbon emission. It is concluded that the expansion of all kinds of construction land has not reached the turning point of carbon emission growth, and the reduction in the marginal rate of carbon emission caused by the expansion of industrial land made the growth of total carbon emission in Wuhan City slow down. However, the carbon emission produced by residential land, public commercial land and traffic land showed a faster growth trend in urban expansion, which were the key to controlling carbon emission in the future. Differences in land functions have led to different factors driving the growth of carbon emission from construction land, so it is necessary to explore the low-carbon utilization of different construction land by combining the coupling relationship between carbon emission and construction land growth as well as the different factors. Finally, the paper put forward policy recommendations for the low-carbon utilization of industrial land, residential land as well as traffic land.
The purpose of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the growth of anthropogenic carbon emission and the expansion of construction land, and then to conduct a decomposition study on the driving factors of carbon emission from construction land. The methods employed include Environment Kuznets Curve theory, Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition. The results showed that: 1)Kuznets Curve of carbon emission and construction land showed a inverted "U" shape, and so did industrial land. Public commercial land and traffic land showed a "N" shape and residential land showed a "U" shape. 2)The GDP per land and scale of industrial land had a positive effect on the growth of industrial carbon emission, while the industrial energy consumption per GDP had a negative one. The others had minor effect. 3)The GDP per capita and residential land scale had a positive effect on the growth of domestic carbon emission.The residential energy consumption per GDP, emissions per energy consumption and density of registered inhabitants showed a negative effect. 4)The transportation structure, traffic population per land and traffic land scale had a positive effect on the growth of traffic carbon emission. However, the emissions per energy consumption and energy intensity per capita had a negative effect on carbon emission. It is concluded that the expansion of all kinds of construction land has not reached the turning point of carbon emission growth, and the reduction in the marginal rate of carbon emission caused by the expansion of industrial land made the growth of total carbon emission in Wuhan City slow down. However, the carbon emission produced by residential land, public commercial land and traffic land showed a faster growth trend in urban expansion, which were the key to controlling carbon emission in the future. Differences in land functions have led to different factors driving the growth of carbon emission from construction land, so it is necessary to explore the low-carbon utilization of different construction land by combining the coupling relationship between carbon emission and construction land growth as well as the different factors. Finally, the paper put forward policy recommendations for the low-carbon utilization of industrial land, residential land as well as traffic land.
引文
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[2]USSIRI D A N,LAL R.Carbon Sequestration for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation[M].Berlin:Springer International Publishing,2017:61-76.
[3]LIN Z,TIEMAO S,YUANMAN H,et al.Change of construction land and trend prediction of carbon emission effect based on STIRPAT model[J].Journal of Computational&Theoretical Nanoscience,2016,13(5):3303-3311.
[4]CHURKINA G.Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,216(2):107-113.
[5]USAMA Al-MULALI,CHE NORMEE BINTI CHE SAB,HASSAN GHOLIPOUR FEREIDOUNI.Exploring the bidirectional long run relationship between urbanization,energy consumption,and carbon dioxide emission[J].Energy,2012,46(1):156-167.
[6]KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[7]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].Nber Working Papers,1995,110(2):353-377.
[8]夏勇,钟茂初.经济发展与环境污染脱钩理论及EKC假说的关系--兼论中国地级城市的脱钩划分[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):8-16.
[9]李惠娟,龙如银.资源型城市环境库兹涅茨曲线研究--基于面板数据的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(1):19-27.
[10]吴金凤,王秀红.不同农业经济发展水平下的碳排放对比分析--以盐池县和平度市为例[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1909-1917.
[11]GILL A R,VISWANATHAN K K,HASSAN S.A test of environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)for carbon emission and potential of renewable energy to reduce green houses gases(GHG)in Malaysia[J].Environment Development&Sustainability,2018,20(2):1-12.
[12]毕宝德.土地经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2016:62-64.
[13]ZHANG R,MATSUSHIMA K,KOBAYASHI K.Can land use planning help mitigate transport-related carbon emissions?A case of Changzhou[J].Land Use Policy,2018,74:32-40.
[14]张润森,濮励杰,文继群,等.建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(5):723-733.
[15]周璟茹,赵华甫,吴金华.关中城市群土地集约利用与碳排放关系演化特征研究[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(11):55-61,72.
[16]WANG Y,ZHANG X,KUBOTA J,et al.A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,48:704-709.
[17]桂小丹,李慧明.环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(1):5-8.
[18]KAIKA D,ZERVAS E.The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)theory-Part A:concept,causes and the CO2,emissions case[J].Energy Policy,2013,62(5):1392-1402.
[19]KAYA Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:interpretation of proposed scenarios[R].Presentation to the Energyand Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Working Group,IPCC,Paris,1989.
[20]崔盼盼,张艳平,张丽君,等.中国省域隐含碳排放及其驱动机理时空演变分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(5):879-892.
[21]B W ANG.LMDI decomposition approach:a guide for implementation[J].Energy Policy,2015,86:233-238.
[22]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2006 IPCCGuidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[R].New York:IPCC,2010.
[23]张秀媛,杨新苗,闫琰.城市交通能耗和碳排放统计测算方法研究[J].中国软科学,2014(6):142-150.
[24]段海燕,王寒凝,王宪恩.日本主导产业碳排放影响因素及驱动效应的分解研究[J].现代日本经济,2016(4):70-82.