消费支出、投资支出对外汇储备变动的影响研究——基于我国1978-2014年数据的实证分析
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摘要
长期以来,我国巨额外汇储备规模持续备受关注,影响外汇储备变动的因素日益复杂。通过构建实证研究模型,利用我国1978—2014年的年度数据,实证研究了消费支出与投资支出对外汇储备变动的影响。结果表明:(1)消费支出增加有助于抑制外汇储备增加,投资支出增加则有助于促进外汇储备增加,二者对外汇储备变动的影响在一定程度上意味着均衡;(2)消费支出增加对外汇储备增加的抑制作用较小,投资支出增加对外汇储备增加的促进作用相对较大。研究结果解释了新常态下我国外汇储备下降的消费投资变化因素,对我国供给侧改革政策和需求侧改革政策调整及其对外汇储备的影响有一定意义。
China's substantial foreign exchange reserves has kept drawing attention for a long time,and factors influencing has become increasingly complex.By constructing empirical research model and analyzing annual data of China from 1978 to 2014,the research practically studied how consumer spending and investment spending affect foreign exchange reserves.The results showed:(1)the increasing consumer spending is beneficial for restraining the augment of foreign exchange reserves,while the growing investment spending helps to promote foreign exchange reserves.The influences of them on foreign exchange reserves changes are balance to a certain extent.(2)The restraining effect of consumer spending increasing on foreign exchange reserves is weaker when the encouraging influence of investment spending increasing is relatively stronger.The research results explained the changing factors of consumption and investment on foreign exchange reserves decreasing under the new normal of China.There has certain significance of how the adjustment of China's side reformation policies of supply and demand impacts on the foreign exchange reserves changes.And the research illustrated the changing relationship between consumption,investment and foreign exchange reserves.
China's substantial foreign exchange reserves has kept drawing attention for a long time,and factors influencing has become increasingly complex.By constructing empirical research model and analyzing annual data of China from 1978 to 2014,the research practically studied how consumer spending and investment spending affect foreign exchange reserves.The results showed:(1)the increasing consumer spending is beneficial for restraining the augment of foreign exchange reserves,while the growing investment spending helps to promote foreign exchange reserves.The influences of them on foreign exchange reserves changes are balance to a certain extent.(2)The restraining effect of consumer spending increasing on foreign exchange reserves is weaker when the encouraging influence of investment spending increasing is relatively stronger.The research results explained the changing factors of consumption and investment on foreign exchange reserves decreasing under the new normal of China.There has certain significance of how the adjustment of China's side reformation policies of supply and demand impacts on the foreign exchange reserves changes.And the research illustrated the changing relationship between consumption,investment and foreign exchange reserves.
引文
[1]马野驰,于珊,姜晓琴.金融市场发展、外汇储备积累与经济增长——基于国别(地区)门限面板模型的分析[J].经济问题,2015(6):57-63.
[2]贺力平.论中国外汇储备的性质[J].学术研究,2015(8):63-71.
[3]特里芬.黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来[M].北京:商务印书馆,1997.
[4]TOBIN J.Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk[J].Review of Economic Studies,1958,25(2):65-86.
[5]DOOLEY,FOLKERTS-LANDAU&GARBER.An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system[R].NBER Working Paper,2003:9971.
[6]汤凌霄,欧阳哓,皮飞兵.金砖国家外汇储备波动的协动性及其影响因素[J].经济研究,2014(1):112-126.
[7]段洁新,王志文.我国外汇储备增长的影响因素分析——基于因子分析的实证研究[J].金融理论与实践,2013(5):77-79.
[8]陈其安,杜方舟.外汇储备与人民币汇率的联动影响机制——基于汇改前后中国货币政策和国际贸易的实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2014(7):162-170.
[9]罗素梅,张逸佳.中国的高额外汇储备可持续吗?[J].国际金融研究,2015(4):22-33.
[10]路妍,林乐亭.危机后国际货币体系非均衡性对中国外汇储备的影响研究[J].宏观经济研究,2014(1):75-88.
[11]陈创练,黄楚光,陈创波.资本账户开放、金融风险与外汇储备的非线性关系研究[J].财经研究,2015(8):64-78.
[12]FRENKEL J A.The demand for international reserves by developed and less-developed countries[J].Economica,1973(41):14-24.
[13]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1994.
[14]COENEN G,STRAUB.Does government spending crowd in private consumption?Theory and empirical evidence for the Euro area[J].International Finance,2005(8):180-190.
[15]袁奥博,蔡春春.消费抑制与经济增长——基于中国省际面板的实证分析[J].上海金融,2015(4):29-34.
[16]匡贤明.我国消费结构升级:生存型消费转向服务性消费[N].上海证券报,2015-04-04.
[17]DOOLEY M,J LIZONDO,D MATHIESON.The currency composition of foreign exchange reserves[R].IMF Staff Papers,1989,36:1-60.
[18]黄晓薇,贾君怡,郭敏.宏观事件冲击与我国外汇储备的期限结构管理——基于美债上限调整的事件研究[J].财经研究,2015(10):45-57.
[19]李怀军.中国外汇储备下降趋势已然形成[EB/OL].[2015-10-09].财新网.
(1)从货物进出口总额与GDP的比值所表示的外贸依存度来看,我国外贸依存度从1978年的9.73%上升到2014年的41.77%。
[2]贺力平.论中国外汇储备的性质[J].学术研究,2015(8):63-71.
[3]特里芬.黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来[M].北京:商务印书馆,1997.
[4]TOBIN J.Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk[J].Review of Economic Studies,1958,25(2):65-86.
[5]DOOLEY,FOLKERTS-LANDAU&GARBER.An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system[R].NBER Working Paper,2003:9971.
[6]汤凌霄,欧阳哓,皮飞兵.金砖国家外汇储备波动的协动性及其影响因素[J].经济研究,2014(1):112-126.
[7]段洁新,王志文.我国外汇储备增长的影响因素分析——基于因子分析的实证研究[J].金融理论与实践,2013(5):77-79.
[8]陈其安,杜方舟.外汇储备与人民币汇率的联动影响机制——基于汇改前后中国货币政策和国际贸易的实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2014(7):162-170.
[9]罗素梅,张逸佳.中国的高额外汇储备可持续吗?[J].国际金融研究,2015(4):22-33.
[10]路妍,林乐亭.危机后国际货币体系非均衡性对中国外汇储备的影响研究[J].宏观经济研究,2014(1):75-88.
[11]陈创练,黄楚光,陈创波.资本账户开放、金融风险与外汇储备的非线性关系研究[J].财经研究,2015(8):64-78.
[12]FRENKEL J A.The demand for international reserves by developed and less-developed countries[J].Economica,1973(41):14-24.
[13]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].北京:商务印书馆,1994.
[14]COENEN G,STRAUB.Does government spending crowd in private consumption?Theory and empirical evidence for the Euro area[J].International Finance,2005(8):180-190.
[15]袁奥博,蔡春春.消费抑制与经济增长——基于中国省际面板的实证分析[J].上海金融,2015(4):29-34.
[16]匡贤明.我国消费结构升级:生存型消费转向服务性消费[N].上海证券报,2015-04-04.
[17]DOOLEY M,J LIZONDO,D MATHIESON.The currency composition of foreign exchange reserves[R].IMF Staff Papers,1989,36:1-60.
[18]黄晓薇,贾君怡,郭敏.宏观事件冲击与我国外汇储备的期限结构管理——基于美债上限调整的事件研究[J].财经研究,2015(10):45-57.
[19]李怀军.中国外汇储备下降趋势已然形成[EB/OL].[2015-10-09].财新网.
(1)从货物进出口总额与GDP的比值所表示的外贸依存度来看,我国外贸依存度从1978年的9.73%上升到2014年的41.77%。