主要贸易伙伴进口关税对中国出口的影响
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摘要
为评估主要贸易伙伴进口关税变化对中国出口的影响,以中国23个主要贸易伙伴2002年至2016年的数据为样本做了实证研究。研究结果表明,贸易伙伴提高进口关税会减少中国的出口,这一结论具有一致性和稳健性,贸易伙伴进口关税与中国出口之间存在因果关系。针对主要贸易伙伴所有产品、初级产品和工业产品的进口关税对中国相应产品出口的影响做了数值估算,结果发现这一数值结果仅适用于23个主要贸易伙伴,且工业产品对贸易伙伴进口关税的弹性远大于初级产品。最后,结合研究结论和当前形势简要提出了政策建议。
Based on the data of China's 23 major trading partners from 2002 to 2016,with empirical research methods,we estimated influence of import tariffs of major trading partners on China's exports. The results of the study indicate that the increase of import tariffs by trading partners will reduce China' s exports. This conclusion is consistent and robust,and there is a causal relationship between import tariffs of trading partners and Chinese exports. A numerical value of the impact of import tariffs on all products,primary products and industrial products of major trading partners on the export of corresponding products in China was estimated. This numerical result was found to be applied only to the 23 major trading partners. And the elasticity of import tariffs of industrial products on trading partners is much greater than that of primary products. Finally,the policy recommendations are briefly put forward in light of the research findings and the current situation.
Based on the data of China's 23 major trading partners from 2002 to 2016,with empirical research methods,we estimated influence of import tariffs of major trading partners on China's exports. The results of the study indicate that the increase of import tariffs by trading partners will reduce China' s exports. This conclusion is consistent and robust,and there is a causal relationship between import tariffs of trading partners and Chinese exports. A numerical value of the impact of import tariffs on all products,primary products and industrial products of major trading partners on the export of corresponding products in China was estimated. This numerical result was found to be applied only to the 23 major trading partners. And the elasticity of import tariffs of industrial products on trading partners is much greater than that of primary products. Finally,the policy recommendations are briefly put forward in light of the research findings and the current situation.
引文
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[16]李俊久,丘俭裕.中国对APEC成员的出口潜力及其影响因素研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证检验[J].亚太经济,2017(6):5-13.
[2]沈国兵,张学建.行业知识产权保护对中国出口竞争力的影响——基于行业增加值市场渗透率的分析[J].浙江学刊,2018(2):151-161.
[3] Johnson H. International Trade and Economic Growth[R].USA:Routledge,2012.
[4]胡方.国际价值、贸易利益与经济政策[J].当代经济研究,2017(7):21-28.
[5] Rouzet D,Miroudot S. The Cumulative Impact of Trade Barriers Along the Value Chain:an Empirical Assessment Using the Oecd Inter-country Input-output Model[R]. Indiana USA:Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University,2013.
[6] Santos-paulino A,Thirlwall AP. The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports,Imports and the Balance of Payments of Developing Countries[J]. Economic Journal,2004(493):50-72.
[7] Baldwin JR,Wulong GU. Trade Liberalization:Export-market Participation,Productivity Growth,and Innovation[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2004(3):372-392.
[8] Amiti M,Khandelwal A. Import Competition and Quality Upgrading[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2013(2):476-490.
[9] Bas M,Strauss-kahn V. Input-trade Liberalization,Export Prices and Quality Upgrading[J]. Journal of International Economics,2015(2):250-262.
[10]田聪颖,肖海峰. FTA背景下中韩双边出口增长的三元边际特征及前景分析[J].世界经济研究,2018(4):97-109,137.
[11] Damijan JP,Konings J,Polanec S. Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms[J]. World Economy,2015(11):1483-1506.
[12]亢梅玲,李涛,袁亦宁.贸易自由化、产品组合与中国多产品出口企业[J].国际贸易问题,2017(7):50-62.
[13] Ehrlich SD. How Common Is the Common External Tariff?[J].European Union Politics,2009(1):115-141.
[14]丛晓男.中国-欧亚经济联盟FTA的经济障碍与现实选择——基于可计算一般均衡GMR-CGE[J].俄罗斯研究,2018(1):82-111.
[15]左喜梅,郭辉,郇志坚.贸易便利化水平对中国与上海合作组织主要国家的贸易影响分析[J].新金融,2018(1):58-63.
[16]李俊久,丘俭裕.中国对APEC成员的出口潜力及其影响因素研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证检验[J].亚太经济,2017(6):5-13.