摘要
为了解水杨柳的潜在分布,以保护水杨柳种群,根据51条种群分布记录,选取19个主要环境影响因子,运用最大熵模型(MAXENT)模拟三个历史时期(1950—1959年、1975—1985年、2000—2009年)并预测了两个未来气候变暖的情景下(RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5)水杨柳在云南省的潜在生境分布。结果表明:水杨柳生境距离河流越近,适宜度越高,水杨柳生境适宜度的分布与云南省的水系分布相关性越高,适宜度大于0.6的区域都分布在水系附近。模型计算结果显示,三个历史时期水杨柳生境适宜度大于0.6的面积逐渐增加,1975—1985年相对于1950—1959年云南省水杨柳生境适宜度大于0.6的区域面积增加了632 km~2,但2010年实地调查发现水电站建设淹没了大量水杨柳生境面积。RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5两个未来气候变暖情景下的水杨柳生境适宜度计算结果表明,随着气候变暖,水杨柳生境适宜度有所提高,且气候越温暖,水杨柳生境适宜度提升越大。
In order to explore potential distribution of the Homonoia riparia Lour, and protect this threatened species, the 19 major environmental impact factors are selected from 51 sampled localities, and the maximum entropy(MAXENT) model is used to predict the potential geographic distributions of the H. riparia Lour under the three historical period(1950-1959, 1975-1985, 2000-2009) and two climate change scenarios(RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). The result shows that(1) the annual average temperature and elevation are two important factors in determining the habitat distribution of H. riparia Lour, the habitat suitability greater than 0.6 is distributed near the riverside. Three historical period reconstruction shows that from 1950-1959 to 2000-2009, habitat suitability(>0.6) of H. riparia Lour is gradually increased. However, the investigative results illustrated that the habitat area of H. riparia Lour decreased sharply in 2010, and the mainly reason is the construction of hydraulic project. The research also reports the quantitative predictions of climate change(RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) on H. riparia Lour, and the result displays that global warming is conducive to expanding the habitat of H. riparia Lour, and the warmer the climate is, the higher the habitat of H. riparia Lour is.
引文
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