海港门户宁波对外交通与城市发展耦合演变
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摘要
基于城市职能与外部交通理论,构建城市对外交通与城市发展耦合评价模型,定量分析宁波市1997～2016年两系统耦合状态.结果表明:(1)1997年以来,宁波城市对外交通与城市发展水平逐步提升,二者Pearson相关系数高达0.988,相关关系呈显著正相关.两系统耦合协调度由严重失衡逐步转型至初级协调,1997～2006年处于发展不平衡阶段,2007～2013年为转型发展阶段,2014～2016年为协调发展阶段;(2)对外交通建设对城市发展具有正外部性,随着经济活动向高精尖生产倾斜,未来以港口为主导的城市发展模式将逐步退化,港口功能逐渐减弱,空港上升至交通主导地位.城市对外交通与城市发展需向优质协调转型,优化对外交通结构,放缓港口建设并加快空港发展,以交通引导城市结构与职能模式升级是宁波未来城市发展首选.
Based on the urban function and urban external traffic theory, the evaluation model of urban external traffic and urban development coupling relationship is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the coupling status in quo in Ningbo from 1997 to 2016. The results suggest that: 1) Since 1997, the level of urban external transportation and urban development has been gradually growing. The correlation coefficient between the two is as high as 0.988, indicating the both are significantly positively correlated. The coordination degree of the two systems gradually shift from serious imbalance to primary coordination. Between 1997 and 2006, it was in an unbalanced development period, and 2007-2013 can be referred to as a transitional development stage, and2014-2016 a coordinated development stage is attained; 2) In terms of the external traffic construction, the development features the positive externalities. As economic activities shift to high-precision production, the port-oriented urban development model will gradually degrade in the future, the port functions will be gradually weakened, and the airport industry will supplant and rise to the dominant position of transportation. It is necessary for the two parties to facilitate the transformation, optimize the city's external traffic, slow down the port construction and speed up the development of the fast-growing airport. To achieve these targets, upgrading the urban structure and functional mode with traffic guidance should be put on the top of the priority list for Ningbo's future urban development.
Based on the urban function and urban external traffic theory, the evaluation model of urban external traffic and urban development coupling relationship is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the coupling status in quo in Ningbo from 1997 to 2016. The results suggest that: 1) Since 1997, the level of urban external transportation and urban development has been gradually growing. The correlation coefficient between the two is as high as 0.988, indicating the both are significantly positively correlated. The coordination degree of the two systems gradually shift from serious imbalance to primary coordination. Between 1997 and 2006, it was in an unbalanced development period, and 2007-2013 can be referred to as a transitional development stage, and2014-2016 a coordinated development stage is attained; 2) In terms of the external traffic construction, the development features the positive externalities. As economic activities shift to high-precision production, the port-oriented urban development model will gradually degrade in the future, the port functions will be gradually weakened, and the airport industry will supplant and rise to the dominant position of transportation. It is necessary for the two parties to facilitate the transformation, optimize the city's external traffic, slow down the port construction and speed up the development of the fast-growing airport. To achieve these targets, upgrading the urban structure and functional mode with traffic guidance should be put on the top of the priority list for Ningbo's future urban development.
引文
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[2]Miharja M,Sjafruddin A H.Urban development control based on transportation carrying capacity[J].IOPConference Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2017,70(1):1-15.
[3]张文尝,金凤君,樊杰.交通经济带[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[4]何丹,殷清眉,杨牡丹.交通基础设施建设与城市群一体化发展--以长株潭“3+5”城市群为例[J].人文地理,2017,32(6):72-79.
[5]杨忍.中国县域城镇化的道路交通影响因素识别及空间协同性解析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(7):806-815.
[6]王益澄,杨阳,马仁锋,等.浙江省滨海城镇带的中心--边界识别[J].经济地理,2017,37(4):92-98.
[7]张宝清,盛进路.基于多模型的港口物流与区域经济协同发展研究--以重庆市为例[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2018,31(2):94-100.
[8]陈航,栾维新,王跃伟.我国港口城市的功能模式研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(2):54-58.
[9]王益澄,马仁锋,王楠楠,等.滨海城镇带结构演化及产业支撑[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2016.
[10]马仁锋,张文忠,余建辉,等.中国地理学界人居环境研究回顾与展望[J].地理科学,2014,34(12):1470-1479.
[11]蒋海兵,张文忠,祁毅,等.区域交通基础设施可达性研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):807-817.
[12]孙莹莹,吉达鹏,肖忠斌.交通基础设施对城市规模的影响研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2013,13(6):27-31.
[13]杨阳.长三角核心港口集团腹地空间竞争行为及其城市外向性影响研究[D].宁波:宁波大学,2018.
[14]白仲林.面板数据的计量经济分析[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2008.