中国海洋经济弹性的时空分异与影响因素分析
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摘要
基于海洋经济弹性内涵,从抵御能力、恢复能力、再组织能力、更新能力四个维度构建评价指标体系,使用模糊物元评估模型测度中国沿海11省区海洋经济弹性,运用核密度估计模型和GIS空间分析技术探究中国海洋经济弹性时空演化规律,引入广义矩阵估计方法(GMM)分析中国海洋经济弹性的影响因素。结果表明:①2006—2015年,中国海洋经济弹性的整体水平呈波动上升的趋势,由2006年的0.328上升到2015年的0.354。其中抵御能力维度、更新能力维度总体上呈波动上升的态势,恢复能力维度总体上呈波动下降的态势,再组织能力维度无显著变化。②2006—2010年中国海洋经济弹性两极分化程度较高,2010—2015年,两极分化程度减弱,区域间差异减小,海洋经济弹性总体水平显著上升。③海洋经济弹性高值区的空间分布呈现由北向南转移的趋势,中值区、较高值区的空间分布呈现由南向北转移的趋势,低值区的空间分布无显著变化。④产业结构、政府支持力度、对外开放和区位优势对海洋经济弹性的提升起正向作用,其中产业结构、政府支持力度和对外开放3个影响因素通过了显著性检验。
Based on the connotation of marine economic resilience, this paper constructed the evaluation index system from the aspects of resistance, renewability, reorganization capacity and innovation capacity, used the fuzzy matter element evaluation model to calculate the marine economic resilience of 11 provinces and used the Kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis techniques to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of the marine economic resilience and analysed the influencing factors of marine economic resilience by using generalized method of moments(GMM). The results show the following: 1) The overall level of resilience of China's marine economy has showed a upward trend from 0.328 in 2006 to 0.354 in 2015.The resistance and innovation capacity dimensions of China's marine economic resilience have generally risen and fluctuated. The renewability dimension has generally fluctuated and declined. And there has been no significant change in the reorganization capability dimension; 2) The degree of polarization of China's marine economic resilience between 2006 and 2010 was relatively high. From 2010 to 2015,the level of polarization has weakened, the differences between regions have decreased, and the overall level of marine economic resilience has risen significantly;3) The spatial distribution of high value of marine economy resilience areas shifts from the north to the south, while the medium value and higher value areas shift from the south to the north, and the spatial distribution of low value areas shows no significant change; 4) Industrial structure, government support, open strategy and location advantage play a positive role in enhancing the resilience of the marine economy. The industrial structure, government support and open strategy pass the test of significance.
Based on the connotation of marine economic resilience, this paper constructed the evaluation index system from the aspects of resistance, renewability, reorganization capacity and innovation capacity, used the fuzzy matter element evaluation model to calculate the marine economic resilience of 11 provinces and used the Kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis techniques to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of the marine economic resilience and analysed the influencing factors of marine economic resilience by using generalized method of moments(GMM). The results show the following: 1) The overall level of resilience of China's marine economy has showed a upward trend from 0.328 in 2006 to 0.354 in 2015.The resistance and innovation capacity dimensions of China's marine economic resilience have generally risen and fluctuated. The renewability dimension has generally fluctuated and declined. And there has been no significant change in the reorganization capability dimension; 2) The degree of polarization of China's marine economic resilience between 2006 and 2010 was relatively high. From 2010 to 2015,the level of polarization has weakened, the differences between regions have decreased, and the overall level of marine economic resilience has risen significantly;3) The spatial distribution of high value of marine economy resilience areas shifts from the north to the south, while the medium value and higher value areas shift from the south to the north, and the spatial distribution of low value areas shows no significant change; 4) Industrial structure, government support, open strategy and location advantage play a positive role in enhancing the resilience of the marine economy. The industrial structure, government support and open strategy pass the test of significance.
引文
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[21]周春山,黄婉玲,刘扬.中国城市经济开放度时空演化及影响因素[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):1-8.
[22]李汝资,刘耀彬,谢德金.中国产业结构变迁中的经济效率演进及影响因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(12):2179-2198.
[23]梁双波,曹有挥,吴威.长江三角洲地区物流供应链时空演化及其影响因素——基于国际货代企业数据的分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(11):2 156-2 170.
[24]邹玮,孙才志,覃雄合.基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):859-867.
[25]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.
[2]关皓明,张平宇,刘文新,等.基于演化弹性理论的中国老工业城市经济转型过程比较[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):771-783.
[3]裴源生,方玲,罗琳.黄河流域农业需水价格弹性研究[J].资源科学,2003(6):25-30.
[4]孙建光,韩桂兰.塔里木河流域未来农业水价调整的需求弹性效应分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(5):757-762.
[5]秦萍,陈颖翱,徐晋涛,等.北京居民出行行为分析:时间价值和交通需求弹性估算[J].经济地理,2014,34(11):17-22.
[6]况伟大,马一鸣.物业税、供求弹性与房价[J].中国软科学,2010(12):27-35.
[7]徐媛媛,王琛.金融危机背景下区域经济弹性的影响因素——以浙江省和江苏省为例[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(8):986-994.
[8] Micheli F,Saenz-Arroyo A,Greenley A,et al. Evidence that Marine Reserves Enhance Resilience to Climatic Impacts[J].Plos One,2012(7):e40832. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040832.
[9] Simon A.LEVIN.Resilience,Robustness,and Marine Ecosystem-based Management[J]. Bio Science,2008,63(12):6-3 568.
[10] William W L Cheung. Transform high seas management to build climate resilience in marine seafood supply[J]. FISH and FISH-ERIES,2017,18(2):254-263.
[11] Stefan Gelcich.Co-management Policy Can Reduce Resilience in Traditionally Managed Marine Ecosystems[J]. Ecosystems,2006,9(6):915-996.
[12]王泽宇,卢函,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济系统稳定性评价与空间分异[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):566-576.
[13]孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
[14]彭飞,韩增林,杨俊,等.基于BP神经网络的中国沿海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性时空分异研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2 441-2 450.
[15]李博,张志强,苏飞,等.环渤海地区海洋产业生态系统适应性时空演变及影响因素[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):701-708.
[16]方修琦,殷培红.弹性、脆弱性和适应——IHDP三个核心概念综述[J].地理科学进展,2007(5):11-22.
[17]胡晓辉.区域经济弹性研究述评及未来展望[J].外国经济与管理,2012,34(8):64-721.
[18]王璐,水庆象,吴群琪,等.基于耦合定权和模糊物元分析的高速公路改扩建方案决策[J].统计与决策,2017(19):60-63.
[19]郭月婷,徐建刚.基于模糊物元的淮河流域城市化与生态环境系统的耦合协调测度[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(5):1 244-1 252.
[20]潘峰,梁川,王志良,等.模糊物元模型在区域水资源可持续利用综合评价中的应用[J].水科学进展,2003(3):271-275.
[21]周春山,黄婉玲,刘扬.中国城市经济开放度时空演化及影响因素[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):1-8.
[22]李汝资,刘耀彬,谢德金.中国产业结构变迁中的经济效率演进及影响因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(12):2179-2198.
[23]梁双波,曹有挥,吴威.长江三角洲地区物流供应链时空演化及其影响因素——基于国际货代企业数据的分析[J].地理研究,2017,36(11):2 156-2 170.
[24]邹玮,孙才志,覃雄合.基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):859-867.
[25]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.